Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions
Forthcoming
Status as published by the data source.
Expected Outcome:
Project results are expected to contribute to some of the following expected outcomes:
• Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD);
• More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society;
• More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action. Scope:
Climate scenarios have been instrumental in shaping global, national, and increasingly local responses to climate change by helping stakeholders make informed decisions. Against the backdrop of rapid environmental shifts, social upheavals, high uncertainties and complexity, scenarios must be advanced to inform low-emission climate-resilient pathways, while also accounting for other critical policy priorities, such as environmental protection.
Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity.
Proposals are expected to address only one of the following priority areas, which should be clearly indicated:
Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension
Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation.
Area B: Improved scenario frameworks
Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs.
Area C: Improved policy representation
Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall.
Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences. The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities.
All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe. They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform[1] conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders. They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum[2].
International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries[3] – particularly major GHG emitters[4] such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative[5]), India, Brazil and Indonesia. It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development.
[1] https://www.ecemf.eu/ecemp/european-climate-and-energy-modelling-platform/
[2] https://www.ecemf.eu/
[3] https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lendinggroups; standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply - only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding
[4] https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2024?vis=ghgtot#emissions_table
[5] International cooperation with China in research and innovation
- Status
- Forthcoming
- Deadline
- (time not stated)
- Opens
- Published
- Total budget
- €24,000,000
- Grant range
- €4,000,000 – €4,000,000
- Country
- European Union (EU-wide)
- Programme
- Horizon Europe (HORIZON)
- Official page
- Open at the source portal
Other calls under Horizon Europe (HORIZON)
- PV based electrification of the economy: Designing & optimising PV systems supporting industrial electrification and promoting participation in electricity markets (EUPI-PV Partnership)
- Advanced TSO control rooms to enhance grid observability, stability and resilience
- Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADSM) for more efficient and flexible distribution grids
- Community of practice - Data-Driven Decision-Making in Energy
- Industrial processes and equipment for innovative, reliable and scalable tandem technologies (EUPI-PV Partnership)
- Integrated Approaches for Retrofitting Infrastructures with Innovative Energy Storage Technologies
- Demonstration of hydropower technologies for efficient and forward-looking refurbishment of existing hydropower plants
- Delivery of industrial CCUS clusters – Societal Readiness pilot
All calls under this programme
Similar opportunities
- Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society
- Climate security and civil preparedness – new ways to develop pre- and post-crisis climate-change related scenarios for a more resilient Europe
- Advancing understanding, modelling and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate
- Multilevel climate and energy dialogue to deliver the Governance Regulation and the post–2030 energy and climate policy framework
- Palaeoclimate science for a better understanding of Earth system dynamics
- Harmonised / Standard protocols for the implementation of alert and impact forecasting systems as well as transnational emergency management in the areas of high-impact weather / climatic and geological disasters
Where this came from
- Source document
- https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/data/topicDetails/horizon-cl5-2027-01-d1-13.json
- Document fingerprint
a21a7b870fb55e3c(SHA-256, first 16 hex characters)- Retrieved
- First recorded here
What has changed
- url first recorded as https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/horizon-cl5-2027-01-d1-13 on
- currency first recorded as EUR on
- amount_max first recorded as 4000000.00 on
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- budget_total first recorded as 24000000.00 on
- deadline first recorded as 2027-03-04 on
- opens_on first recorded as 2026-11-17 on
- published_on first recorded as 2025-12-12 on
- status_basis first recorded as source_status on
- status first recorded as forthcoming on
- title first recorded as Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions on
Data source
© European Union, 2026. Source: EU Funding & Tenders Portal. Reused under Commission Decision 2011/833/EU — CC BY 4.0.
Retrieved from the source on .
The source last updated this document on Mon, 02 Mar 2026 09:41:07 GMT.
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