A comparison
Pack of cigarettes and Electric car
Two figures compared the only honest way: calculated together, so that what they have in common moves them together, and read as how many times larger one is than the other, with a range.
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Side by side, per kilogram
Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.
Pack of cigarettes
1.8 × 10⁻⁸ per kilogram(0.68–4.4 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
One item is one pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack.
Electric car
1.7 × 10⁻⁸ per kilogram(1.0–3.1 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
One item is one midsize battery-electric car of 1,769 kg.
Which is larger
The model cannot tell whether Pack of cigarettes carries more harm than Electric car per kilogram: the range includes both possibilities.
Pack of cigarettes against Electric car, per kilogram: ×1.0 as much, and very probably (nine times in ten) between ×0.33–×3.0.
In 0% of the runs calculated together, Pack of cigarettes comes out above Electric car.
Calculated together: the same records of harm, the same split of each industry and the same world production in every run, and each product’s own list of materials. Seeing whether two separate ranges overlap would prove nothing either way.
The reason they differ
Deaths per kilogram of each product, by what carries them, with the largest difference first.
By raw material
| Material | Pack of cigarettes | Electric car | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco (unmanufactured) | 1.8 × 10⁻⁸ | 0 | +1.8 × 10⁻⁸ |
| Cobalt | 0 | 7.7 × 10⁻⁹ | −7.7 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Copper | 0 | 6.0 × 10⁻⁹ | −6.0 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Iron ore | 0 | 9.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | −9.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
| Lithium | 0 | 8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | −8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
| Nickel | 0 | 8.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | −8.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
| Coal and lignite | 0 | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | −4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
| Natural graphite | 0 | 2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | −2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
By country where the harm was counted
| Country | Pack of cigarettes | Electric car | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congo, Dem. Rep. | 2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 1.3 × 10⁻⁸ | −1.2 × 10⁻⁸ |
| Yemen, Rep. | 2.8 × 10⁻⁹ | 0 | +2.8 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Turkiye | 1.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 7.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | +1.3 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Myanmar | 1.3 × 10⁻⁹ | 5.0 × 10⁻¹² | +1.3 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Brazil | 1.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | +1.1 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 1.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0 | +1.0 × 10⁻⁹ |
| Pakistan | 8.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 5.8 × 10⁻¹² | +8.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
| Mozambique | 8.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 8.9 × 10⁻¹¹ | +7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
Middle estimates. The range above belongs to the totals; these rows show where the middle difference comes from.
By the money method
- Pack of cigarettes — 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.2–5.2 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
- Electric car — 1.7 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(1.1–2.6 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Shown, not ranked. Measured per euro, most industries are too close to tell apart, and two products from the same industry always get the same figure per euro.
What this figure is not
Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.
HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/compare/cigarette-pack/electric-car/