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Finished product · Tobacco

Pack of cigarettes

One pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack

This page shows what the product is made of and where each figure comes from. It does not show a death toll. The toll is calculated from this list of materials, and will be published only once it has a range and the model has passed its test on past years.

Twenty filter cigarettes of about 1 g each, 0.7 g of it tobacco — the convention several OECD countries use to turn cigarettes into tobacco weight. The pack, its film and the energy of making them are not in this record. The tobacco is counted as the leaf the farm sells; cutting and blending lose some leaf, which is not counted, so the figure is a floor.

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The human cost, per item

One item is one pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Deaths

3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(1.4–8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Deaths per item: the rangeThe range that holds nine in ten of the runs, on a scale where each step is ten times the last: 1.4–8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰. The dot is the middle result; a figure graded indicative has none.10⁻¹¹10⁻¹⁰10⁻⁹10⁻⁸

The product’s list of materials traces 70% of its weight to raw materials the model knows. The rest carries no harm in this method, which is why this method gives a floor.

Injuries

2.2 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.85–5.9 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Injuries per item: the rangeThe range that holds nine in ten of the runs, on a scale where each step is ten times the last: 0.85–5.9 × 10⁻⁸. The dot is the middle result; a figure graded indicative has none.10⁻⁹10⁻⁸10⁻⁷10⁻⁶

The product’s list of materials traces 70% of its weight to raw materials the model knows. The rest carries no harm in this method, which is why this method gives a floor.

Deaths and injuries at work in these figures come from the 53 countries that reported work deaths and the 52 that reported work injuries for 2023.

Harm at work is counted as each country reports it to the UN’s labour statistics (ILOSTAT), and never estimated for a country that did not report: such a country is missing from that year, not counted as zero. So when two years’ figures differ, part of the difference can be a change in which countries reported. The model’s own year-to-year checks compare only countries that reported in both years.

Deaths: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Rep., Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkiye, Turkmenistan, United States, Uzbekistan

Injuries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkiye, Turkmenistan, United States, Uzbekistan

The money method — per €1,000 spent

Two methods, never added together. The materials method counts only what the product’s list of materials reaches, so it is a floor. The money method counts the whole supply chain of the industry for each euro spent, so in principle it misses nothing — but it cannot see what this particular product is made of.

In words

This page gives the model's estimate, for the reference year 2023, of deaths and injuries attributed to the supply chain of a pack of filter cigarettes, without the pack itself, under the Economic-embedded scenario. The figure is a floor and counts the production phase only. On the material route, which follows only the raw materials in the bill of materials, deaths are 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ deaths per item(1.4–8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r and injuries are 2.2 × 10⁻⁸ injuries per item(0.85–5.9 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r. On the monetary route, which covers the industry's whole supply chain, deaths are 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ deaths per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.2–5.2 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r and injuries are 9.2 × 10⁻⁵ injuries per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.62–1.4 × 10⁻⁴)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r. That corresponds to one death for every 1.1 billion – 7.1 billion packs of cigarettes.

By raw material, Tobacco (unmanufactured) has the largest share, 100%. By country where the harm was counted, Yemen, Rep. has the largest share, 16%. By conflict, harm the run could not place has the largest share, 20%. On the monetary route, Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities has the largest share, 69%. These are separate views of the same total, and they do not say which country supplied the tobacco.

Written by an AI language model (claude-sonnet-5-5 (Claude Code; reviewed by claude-opus-5-5)) on 2026-10-14, from the figures on this page. It wrote no numbers itself: each number was put in by the page from the calculation, and any text that wrote a number of its own, or mentioned anything its evidence does not contain, was thrown away unseen.

In human terms

One death for every 1.1 billion – 7.1 billion items.

By the money method, about €190 million – €450 million of spending in its industry for each death.

Rounded so that it stays within the range, so the sentence never claims more than the range does.

Under each scenario

Five answers to how much of the harm counted in a place is linked to its economy. Same product, same year, same trade table: only the rule for linking harm to the economy changes.

Deaths per item under each scenarioEach line is one scenario’s range, on a scale where each step is ten times the last; the dot is its middle result.10⁻¹²10⁻¹¹10⁻¹⁰10⁻⁹10⁻⁸S-MAXEconomic-embeddedS-EVIDEvidence-weightedS-RESResource-onlyS-ARMSArms and resourcesS-CONSConservative

Where it comes from

By raw material — the materials method

By raw material — the materials methodEach bar is one contributor’s share of the deaths in this figure; the rest is grouped last.Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 100%Tobacco (unmanufactured)100%

By industry — the money method

By industry — the money methodEach bar is one contributor’s share of the deaths in this figure; the rest is grouped last.Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities — 69%Crop and animal production, h…69%Mining and quarrying — 21%Mining and quarrying21%Land transport and transport via pipelines — 2.0%Land transport and transport …2.0%Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products — 1.8%Manufacture of food products;…1.8%Water transport — 0.98%Water transport0.98%Forestry and logging — 0.98%Forestry and logging0.98%Manufacture of basic metals — 0.96%Manufacture of basic metals0.96%Warehousing and support activities for transportation — 0.82%Warehousing and support activ…0.82%Everything else — 2.6%Everything else2.6%

Where the harm was counted

Where the harm was countedEach dot is a country, placed at its capital, sized by its share of the deaths in this figure.Yemen, Rep. 16%Ukraine 8.7%Turkiye 7.9%Brazil 7.6%Myanmar 7.1%Syrian Arab Republic — 5.9%Mozambique — 4.7%Pakistan — 4.6%Lebanon — 3.5%Ecuador — 2.8%Korea, Rep. — 2.7%United States — 2.6%Mexico — 2.2%Thailand — 1.9%Japan — 1.7%Honduras — 1.6%Burkina Faso — 1.6%Cameroon — 1.4%Mali — 1.3%Congo, Dem. Rep. — 1.3%India — 1.3%Italy — 1.1%Philippines — 0.95%Haiti — 0.90%Ethiopia — 0.87%Nigeria — 0.82%Kenya — 0.81%Argentina — 0.74%Uganda — 0.68%Somalia, Fed. Rep. — 0.63%Niger — 0.62%Burundi — 0.49%Spain — 0.34%Sri Lanka — 0.33%Togo — 0.31%Greece — 0.29%Central African Republic — 0.28%Guatemala — 0.21%Indonesia — 0.20%Canada — 0.20%Colombia — 0.20%Bulgaria — 0.18%Poland — 0.16%Croatia — 0.14%France — 0.12%Azerbaijan — <0.1%Panama — <0.1%Switzerland — <0.1%Bangladesh — <0.1%Hungary — <0.1%Georgia — <0.1%Iraq — <0.1%Israel — <0.1%Moldova — <0.1%Uzbekistan — <0.1%Turkmenistan — <0.1%Romania — <0.1%Iran, Islamic Rep. — <0.1%Chad — <0.1%Ghana — <0.1%Tunisia — <0.1%Armenia — <0.1%Venezuela, RB — <0.1%China — <0.1%Eswatini — <0.1%Morocco — <0.1%South Africa — <0.1%Algeria — <0.1%Costa Rica — <0.1%Bolivia — <0.1%Benin — <0.1%Libya — <0.1%Peru — <0.1%
Each circle is a country, at its capital, sized by its share of the deaths in this figure. The largest are named; point at or tap any other circle to see its name.
Every material, in full
By raw material — the materials method
MaterialShareDeaths per item
Tobacco (unmanufactured) 100%3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

The chain, step by step

The largest step at each stage of the model. Each links to the full account, where every stage adds up to the headline figure.

  1. Pack of cigarettes
  2. Tobacco (unmanufactured) 100% of the figure
  3. Yemen, Rep. 16% of the figure
  4. Conflict and political violence 80% of the figure
  5. Yemen (North Yemen): Government 13% of the figure

The full breakdown →

Sources behind this figure

Every data file that went into this figure in this calculation, with the credit its licence asks for.

What this figure is not

Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.

How to read these numbers →

Beside the most similar products

The two products whose deaths per kilogram are closest to this one’s, by the materials method.

Cite this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/product/cigarette-pack/

What it is made of

Each line is one part of one pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack: how much of it goes in, how much had to be produced to get that much (some is wasted along the way), and where the figure comes from.

What it is made of
Component Quantity Source
Tobacco (unmanufactured)
ingredient 		14.0 g OECD Health Statistics 2025, 'Tobacco consumption in grams per capita (age 15+)', definit… · low
'a cigarette weighs approximately 1 gram of which the tobacco content can vary between 65-100%'; 'One cigarette is counted as 0.7 grams of tobacco' (one of the country notes; others use 0.59-1 g). 20 × 0.7 g.
Cigarette paper, filter and adhesive
part 		6.00 g OECD Health Statistics 2025, 'Tobacco consumption in grams per capita (age 15+)', definit… · low
The rest of a cigarette of about 1 g: 20 × 0.3 g. Paper and cellulose acetate have no row in the register, so this mass is counted as unregistered.

Down to raw materials

The whole chain worked out — everything one pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack needs, through every product in between, with all the waste along the way included.

Down to raw materials
Input Per item
Tobacco (unmanufactured) 14.0 g
Cigarette paper, filter and adhesive (not in the register) 6.00 g

An input marked “not in the register” is counted by weight but is not yet linked to any supply chain. Services such as transport appear as the euros, or tonnes carried a kilometre, that the list of materials gives them.

How much of it is known in detail

100% of this product’s weight is listed in detail in its own list of materials.

Its whole chain uses 20.0 g of materials, waste included. 70% of that is raw materials the model knows — the part it can trace harm to — 30% is inputs not yet on the list, and 0% is an openly stated remainder.

In the table of what industries buy from each other it belongs to “Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products” (FIGARO industry C10-12).

In the table of what industries buy from each other it belongs to “Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products” (FIGARO industry C10T12).

Sources

Products →

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