login
quiescence.eu
Skip to content

The full breakdown

How the figure for Pack of cigarettes is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

Is something on this page wrong? Report it →

The headline

One item is one pack of 20 filter cigarettes, without the pack. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(1.4–8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.2–5.2 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Tobacco (unmanufactured)1.4 × 10⁻⁵ t2.6 × 10⁻⁸3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰100%
Total3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Yemen, Rep.5.6 × 10⁻¹¹16%
Ukraine3.1 × 10⁻¹¹8.7%
Turkiye2.8 × 10⁻¹¹7.9%
Brazil2.7 × 10⁻¹¹7.6%
Myanmar2.6 × 10⁻¹¹7.1%
Syrian Arab Republic2.1 × 10⁻¹¹5.9%
Mozambique1.7 × 10⁻¹¹4.7%
Pakistan1.6 × 10⁻¹¹4.6%
Lebanon1.2 × 10⁻¹¹3.5%
Ecuador1.0 × 10⁻¹¹2.8%
Korea, Rep.9.5 × 10⁻¹²2.7%
United States9.3 × 10⁻¹²2.6%
Mexico8.0 × 10⁻¹²2.2%
Thailand7.0 × 10⁻¹²1.9%
Japan5.9 × 10⁻¹²1.7%
Honduras5.8 × 10⁻¹²1.6%
Burkina Faso5.6 × 10⁻¹²1.6%
Cameroon5.1 × 10⁻¹²1.4%
Mali4.7 × 10⁻¹²1.3%
Congo, Dem. Rep.4.6 × 10⁻¹²1.3%
India4.6 × 10⁻¹²1.3%
Italy4.1 × 10⁻¹²1.1%
Philippines3.4 × 10⁻¹²0.95%
Haiti3.2 × 10⁻¹²0.90%
Ethiopia3.1 × 10⁻¹²0.87%
Nigeria2.9 × 10⁻¹²0.82%
Kenya2.9 × 10⁻¹²0.81%
Argentina2.7 × 10⁻¹²0.74%
Uganda2.4 × 10⁻¹²0.68%
Somalia, Fed. Rep.2.3 × 10⁻¹²0.63%
Niger2.2 × 10⁻¹²0.62%
Burundi1.8 × 10⁻¹²0.49%
Spain1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.34%
Sri Lanka1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.33%
Togo1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.31%
Greece1.0 × 10⁻¹²0.29%
Central African Republic1.0 × 10⁻¹²0.28%
Guatemala7.6 × 10⁻¹³0.21%
Indonesia7.3 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Canada7.1 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Colombia7.0 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Bulgaria6.5 × 10⁻¹³0.18%
Poland5.8 × 10⁻¹³0.16%
Croatia5.2 × 10⁻¹³0.14%
France4.4 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Azerbaijan3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Panama3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Switzerland2.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bangladesh1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Hungary1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Georgia8.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iraq8.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Israel6.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Moldova5.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Uzbekistan5.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Turkmenistan5.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Romania3.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iran, Islamic Rep.2.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Chad2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Ghana2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Tunisia1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Armenia1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Venezuela, RB1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
China1.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Eswatini7.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Morocco5.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
South Africa3.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Algeria1.3 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Costa Rica7.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Bolivia7.1 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Benin6.4 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Libya6.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Peru2.8 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Total3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰80%
Work7.3 × 10⁻¹¹20%
Total3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed7.3 × 10⁻¹¹20%
Yemen (North Yemen): Government4.8 × 10⁻¹¹13%
Russia - Ukraine3.1 × 10⁻¹¹8.6%
Myanmar (Burma): Government1.4 × 10⁻¹¹4.0%
Israel: Southern Lebanon1.2 × 10⁻¹¹3.3%
Pakistan: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹¹3.3%
Mozambique: Islamic State1.1 × 10⁻¹¹3.0%
IS - Civilians9.0 × 10⁻¹²2.5%
Syria: Government8.3 × 10⁻¹²2.3%
Comando Vermelho - PCC7.9 × 10⁻¹²2.2%
AQAP - Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council6.4 × 10⁻¹²1.8%
M18 - MS-135.2 × 10⁻¹²1.4%
Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians4.9 × 10⁻¹²1.4%
Syria: Islamic State4.8 × 10⁻¹²1.4%
Burkina Faso: Government3.4 × 10⁻¹²0.96%
Los Choneros - Los Lobos3.2 × 10⁻¹²0.91%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel3.2 × 10⁻¹²0.88%
Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho2.8 × 10⁻¹²0.79%
SNA - SDF2.7 × 10⁻¹²0.76%
Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho2.6 × 10⁻¹²0.73%
Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast2.6 × 10⁻¹²0.71%
Myanmar (Burma): Kachin2.4 × 10⁻¹²0.68%
Somalia: Government2.1 × 10⁻¹²0.60%
Philippines: Government2.1 × 10⁻¹²0.58%
JNIM - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹²0.54%
Mali: Government1.9 × 10⁻¹²0.52%
IS - Naparama1.8 × 10⁻¹²0.51%
Bonde dos 40 - PCC1.8 × 10⁻¹²0.51%
Iran - Israel1.7 × 10⁻¹²0.47%
Ethiopia: Government/Amhara1.6 × 10⁻¹²0.46%
Myanmar (Burma): Karen1.6 × 10⁻¹²0.44%
Turkey: Kurdistan1.5 × 10⁻¹²0.43%
Cameroon: Ambazonia1.5 × 10⁻¹²0.43%
Pakistan: Balochistan1.5 × 10⁻¹²0.42%
Comando Vermelho - GDE1.4 × 10⁻¹²0.39%
Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos1.4 × 10⁻¹²0.38%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel1.4 × 10⁻¹²0.38%
GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime1.4 × 10⁻¹²0.38%
Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones1.4 × 10⁻¹²0.38%
India: Kashmir1.3 × 10⁻¹²0.37%
IS - SDF1.3 × 10⁻¹²0.35%
Myanmar (Burma): Karenni1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.35%
Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.34%
Burundi: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.34%
PCC - Sindicato do Crime1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.34%
Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.33%
Pakistan: Islamic State1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.33%
Kuki - Meitei1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.32%
Niger: Islamic State1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.32%
Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.31%
M18 - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.31%
India: Government1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.30%
Nigeria: Islamic State1.1 × 10⁻¹²0.30%
United Kingdom, United States of America - Yemen1.0 × 10⁻¹²0.28%
Philippines: Islamic State1.0 × 10⁻¹²0.28%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos9.9 × 10⁻¹³0.28%
Comando Vermelho - Civilians9.9 × 10⁻¹³0.28%
Deir ez Zor Military Council - SDF9.8 × 10⁻¹³0.27%
JAS - Civilians9.6 × 10⁻¹³0.27%
Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation9.2 × 10⁻¹³0.26%
Cameroon: Government9.0 × 10⁻¹³0.25%
Los Choneros - Los Lagartos9.0 × 10⁻¹³0.25%
Los Lobos - Los Tiguerones8.8 × 10⁻¹³0.25%
Los Lagartos - Mafia 188.8 × 10⁻¹³0.25%
Ambazonia insurgents - Civilians8.3 × 10⁻¹³0.23%
Government of Mozambique - Civilians8.0 × 10⁻¹³0.22%
IS - JNIM7.7 × 10⁻¹³0.21%
URDPC - Civilians7.3 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Government of Yemen (North Yemen) - Civilians7.2 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho7.2 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho7.2 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State7.0 × 10⁻¹³0.20%
Uganda: Islamic State6.8 × 10⁻¹³0.19%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones6.8 × 10⁻¹³0.19%
Myanmar (Burma): Arakan6.7 × 10⁻¹³0.19%
Ethiopia: Oromiya6.1 × 10⁻¹³0.17%
Government of Haiti - Civilians6.0 × 10⁻¹³0.17%
Central African Republic: Government6.0 × 10⁻¹³0.17%
Israel: Palestine5.7 × 10⁻¹³0.16%
G9 - G-Pep5.4 × 10⁻¹³0.15%
Government of Burundi - Civilians5.4 × 10⁻¹³0.15%
Nigeria: Government5.3 × 10⁻¹³0.15%
Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos5.3 × 10⁻¹³0.15%
Terre Noire - Civilians5.1 × 10⁻¹³0.14%
Comando Vermelho - Holanda5.1 × 10⁻¹³0.14%
5 Segond, Taliban - Civilians5.0 × 10⁻¹³0.14%
CPI-Maoist - Civilians4.9 × 10⁻¹³0.14%
Lengola - Mbole4.8 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Government of Mali - Civilians4.7 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Grand Ravine - Civilians4.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Indonesia: West Papua4.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Togo: Government4.3 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Cameroon: Islamic State4.2 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Syria: Government/Rojava Kurdistan4.2 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Myanmar (Burma): Kokang4.1 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Shia (Pakistan) - Sunni (Pakistan)4.0 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Mali: Government/Azawad3.9 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Comando Vermelho - Massa3.9 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Mali: Islamic State3.8 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Nova Okaida - PCC3.7 × 10⁻¹³0.10%
Government of Burkina Faso - Civilians3.7 × 10⁻¹³0.10%
Bonde do Maluco - Katiara3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Civilians3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
G-Pep - Civilians3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Thailand: Patani3.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - Civilians3.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
MS-13 - Civilians3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Azerbaijan: Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Civilians2.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
IS - JAS2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Ethiopia - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
AAKG - CPC2.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG2.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Niger: Government2.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
OPM - Civilians2.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Kashmir insurgents - Civilians2.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
M23 - VDP2.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
CPP - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Mobondo - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Cameroon - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
PCC - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - JNIM2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
OLA - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Israel - Syria1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fano - Civilians1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
BRAS - Civilians1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Anuak - Nuer1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
M23 - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
SSC-Khatumo Administration - Republic of Somaliland1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul1.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos1.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Rwanda: Government1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
ARSA - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul , Ron1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Gran Grif - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
400 Mawozo - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Brazil - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Tiv1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
NUG - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Comités locaux de vigilance - JAS1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria)1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCM1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos9.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
TTP - Civilians9.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Syrian insurgents - Civilians9.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Hindus (India) - Muslims (India)9.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Djerma (Zherma) - Fulani8.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
EGC - Civilians8.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Nigeria: Biafra7.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of India - Civilians7.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Los Lobos - R77.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
SDF - Civilians7.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Central African Republic: Logone7.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela7.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Pakistan - Civilians6.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
URDPC - Zaire self-defense group6.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
CPC - Civilians6.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Birom - Fulani5.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Zaire self-defense group - Civilians5.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
VDP - Civilians5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Indonesia - Civilians5.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - JNIM5.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Atyap - Fulani5.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Karimjo - Wurukum4.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Colombia: Government4.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Black Axe - Eyie4.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India: Western South East Asia4.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FARC-EMC - Civilians4.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Amhara - Oromo4.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC4.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians4.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Forces of Terwase Akwanza - Civilians4.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Fulani - Idoma3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Fulani - Kuteb3.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
DZ Mafia - Yoda3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
AFC - Civilians3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - Civilians3.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of BNP3.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FARC-EMC - ELN2.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB2.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
PKK - Civilians2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Afghanistan - Pakistan2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Philippines: Mindanao2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Philippines - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Nigeria - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iraq: Government2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iran: Government2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
VHP - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Central African Republic - Civilians2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Kusasi - Mamprusi2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Chain Guys - Full Force2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Guraghe - Mareqo2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
ELN - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Tunisia: Government1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Shan1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Los Costenos - Los Pepes1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Mexico - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Kokorat sans ras - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
EGC - ELN1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
RED-TABARA - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
LeJ - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
GATIA - IS1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Murle - Nuer1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Chad: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Rojos1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Hausa - Fulani1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India - Pakistan1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India: Nagaland1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
NSCN-IM - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
PLFI - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FDN - PCC1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Sa'ad subclan of Habar Gidir clan (Hawiye) - Leelkase subclan (Darod)1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Patani insurgents - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - FABB1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
IS - HTS1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Farmers (Chad) - Herders (Chad)9.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
FRPI - Civilians8.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of Venezuela - Civilians8.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Fulani - Irigwe8.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Somalia: Islamic State8.0 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Choa Arab - Kotoko8.0 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Choa Arab - Musgum8.0 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of eSwatini (Swaziland) - Civilians7.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
IS - MSA6.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Fulani - Igala6.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada6.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Greenlanders - NDV6.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Black Axe - Maphite6.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara)5.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba)5.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of Colombia - Civilians5.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
FDLR-FOCA - Civilians4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Farmers (CAR) - Herders (CAR)4.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
AAKG - Civilians4.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Supporters of APC - Supporters of PDP4.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel4.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation4.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Amhara - Gumuz3.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians3.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Black Axe - SVC3.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
IPOB - Civilians3.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
South Sudan: Government2.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Luba - Batwa2.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Agatu - Fulani2.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
IS - Yan Gora2.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Deebam - NDV2.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Iran: Islamic State2.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
CATA - Codeta2.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of Somalia - Civilians2.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of Iran - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians1.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of South Africa - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Hamas - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Jukun - Tiv1.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Algeria: Government1.3 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Los Costenos - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - IS1.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga9.7 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Government of Uganda - Civilians9.7 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Twiganeho - Civilians9.7 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
AFC - VDP9.7 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Forces of Tony Peña - Los Hondureños7.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos6.8 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Libya: Government6.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Benin: Government3.9 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Peru: Government2.8 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Government of Israel - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Total3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities2.3 × 10⁻⁶69%
Mining and quarrying7.0 × 10⁻⁷21%
Land transport and transport via pipelines7.0 × 10⁻⁸2.0%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products6.0 × 10⁻⁸1.8%
Water transport3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.98%
Forestry and logging3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.98%
Manufacture of basic metals3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.96%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation2.8 × 10⁻⁸0.82%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.8 × 10⁻⁸0.53%
Air transport1.3 × 10⁻⁸0.39%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.8 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Postal and courier activities5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.15%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.8 × 10⁻⁹0.14%
Water collection, treatment and supply4.3 × 10⁻⁹0.13%
Construction3.6 × 10⁻⁹0.11%
Fishing and aquaculture3.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment3.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products2.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Rental and leasing activities1.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Employment activities1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products1.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Telecommunications1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities8.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities4.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities4.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use2.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total3.4 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.6 × 10⁻⁶77%
Mexico3.9 × 10⁻⁷12%
Brazil1.5 × 10⁻⁷4.3%
United States6.8 × 10⁻⁸2.0%
Russian Federation2.9 × 10⁻⁸0.85%
Turkiye2.6 × 10⁻⁸0.77%
France1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.47%
India1.2 × 10⁻⁸0.35%
Canada1.2 × 10⁻⁸0.34%
Korea, Rep.1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.31%
Germany9.7 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Spain9.3 × 10⁻⁹0.27%
Italy9.0 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Japan8.9 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Argentina8.6 × 10⁻⁹0.25%
Austria5.5 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Australia3.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Poland3.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Romania2.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Indonesia2.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Portugal2.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Ireland2.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Denmark1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Bulgaria1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Norway1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Hungary1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Belgium9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland7.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece7.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden6.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Cyprus3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
South Africa1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Estonia8.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Saudi Arabia6.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
China3.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Serbia2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total3.4 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/cigarette-pack/

Back to Pack of cigarettes →