Harm counted here, in the products the model covers

Each product whose supply chain counts deaths in Estonia, with its deaths per item and the part of that figure counted here — the other side of the story: harm suffered here, in things mostly bought elsewhere.

Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023.

Harm counted here, in the products the model covers
Product	Deaths per item
Butter Part from here: <0.1%	3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Croissant Part from here: <0.1%	0.42–2.4 × 10⁻⁸ per itemINDICATIVES-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Wheat flour Part from here: <0.1%	1.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.44–2.6 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

The figure is the product’s own, with its range. The share beside it is a middle estimate only: the calculation stores a range for each figure, not for each part of one.

Recorded here

Deaths recorded for this country, as their publishers counted them: war deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and deaths at work reported to the International Labour Organization. Both are records, and both are floors, not estimates of the whole. A war death is recorded where it happened, whoever died.

Recorded here
Kind of harm	Years	Deaths recorded	Latest year
Deaths at work (ILOSTAT, as reported)	1986–2024	1,333	14 (2024)

What it produces

The latest year on record for each material, and this country’s share of the production on record for that year. That is not always a share of the world total: when a publisher lumps small producers together as “other countries”, that group is not a country and is not loaded.

What it produces
Material	Produced	Share of recorded production	Quality
Wheat (2024)	744,750 t	0.1%	reported
Milk (2024)	941,000 t	0.1%	reported
Sugar (1997)	545 t	0.0%	reported
Livestock (2024)	71,767 t	0.0%	reported
Timber (2024)	5,887,198 m3	0.3%	reported
Wood charcoal (2016)	1,105 t	0.0%	reported
Agricultural land (2024)	982,000 ha	0.0%	reported
Forest (2025)	2,446,750 ha	0.1%	external
Fresh water (2023)	64,389,431 m3	0.0%	reported

Where what it consumes is produced

For each material, how much of what this country uses was produced in each country. It is traced through trade, so a country that only passes a material on is not counted as its source: it hands on the mix it imported. The largest sources are listed and the rest added together.

Crude petroleum — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	73.2%	yes
Saudi Arabia	9.3%	yes
Norway	6.6%	—
United States	5.1%	—
Canada	1.5%	—
United Kingdom	0.9%	—
All other countries	3.5%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Norway	45.4%	—
United States	44.8%	—
Russian Federation	6.3%	yes
Canada	0.9%	—
Denmark	0.7%	—
United Kingdom	0.4%	—
All other countries	1.5%

Coal and lignite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Kazakhstan	46.5%	—
Colombia	41.2%	yes
Australia	4.5%	—
United States	3.9%	—
South Africa	1.2%	yes
Poland	0.7%	—
All other countries	2.0%

Cobalt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Congo, Dem. Rep.	58.2%	yes
Australia	14.7%	—
Canada	8.3%	—
Madagascar	6.9%	—
Turkiye	4.8%	yes
Russian Federation	3.1%	yes
All other countries	4.0%

Copper — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Kazakhstan	67.1%	—
Chile	10.7%	—
Russian Federation	5.1%	yes
Peru	4.9%	—
Poland	3.2%	—
Congo, Dem. Rep.	3.0%	yes
All other countries	6.0%

Lithium — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Chile	32.6%	—
Australia	30.0%	—
China	22.3%	—
Argentina	5.8%	yes
Zimbabwe	5.7%	—
Brazil	2.8%	yes
All other countries	0.8%

Nickel — 2019, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	81.2%	yes
Canada	12.3%	—
Australia	5.0%	—
United States	0.6%	yes
Indonesia	0.2%	yes
China	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.5%

Gold — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	12.7%	yes
United States	12.4%	—
Uzbekistan	11.4%	—
Australia	8.9%	—
Canada	8.6%	—
Mexico	8.0%	yes
All other countries	38.1%

Tin — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Peru	44.2%	—
Indonesia	35.7%	yes
Brazil	8.5%	yes
Bolivia	6.1%	—
China	1.8%	—
Rwanda	1.0%	yes
All other countries	2.7%

Tantalum — 2018, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Congo, Dem. Rep.	43.7%	yes
Brazil	30.3%	yes
Rwanda	15.3%	yes
Nigeria	10.0%	yes
Russian Federation	0.3%	yes
Australia	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.2%

Tungsten — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	89.0%	—
Bolivia	2.8%	—
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.	2.4%	—
Portugal	1.4%	—
Rwanda	1.4%	yes
Russian Federation	1.0%	yes
All other countries	2.0%

Iron ore — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Sweden	96.5%	—
Brazil	1.4%	yes
Canada	1.0%	—
United States	0.5%	—
South Africa	0.5%	yes
All other countries	0.1%

Bauxite — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Guinea	83.0%	—
China	10.0%	yes
Turkiye	3.5%	yes
Brazil	1.8%	yes
Australia	1.2%	—
Greece	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.3%

Silver — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Mexico	29.0%	yes
Peru	13.2%	—
China	10.5%	—
United States	7.2%	—
Poland	6.3%	—
Sweden	6.0%	—
All other countries	27.7%

Zinc — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Sweden	33.1%	—
Peru	29.9%	—
Mexico	13.6%	yes
United States	11.4%	—
Bolivia	5.7%	—
Australia	4.3%	—
All other countries	2.0%

Phosphate rock — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	98.1%	yes
Brazil	1.9%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Manganese — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Cote d'Ivoire	59.1%	—
Brazil	26.5%	yes
Gabon	6.8%	—
South Africa	4.2%	yes
Australia	2.0%	—
Ghana	0.7%	yes
All other countries	0.7%

Natural graphite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	44.7%	—
Norway	20.1%	—
Mozambique	12.7%	yes
Madagascar	11.0%	—
Brazil	6.4%	yes
Canada	3.8%	—
All other countries	1.4%

Salt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Germany	40.2%	yes
Egypt, Arab Rep.	20.6%	—
Netherlands	9.8%	—
Spain	6.6%	—
France	5.0%	yes
Poland	4.8%	—
All other countries	13.0%

Silica sand — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Poland	32.1%	—
Germany	18.9%	yes
Netherlands	15.9%	—
Australia	9.0%	—
United States	6.3%	—
China	4.1%	—
All other countries	13.8%

Natural diamonds (rough) — 2021, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	40.1%	yes
Botswana	20.4%	—
Canada	18.9%	—
Angola	7.5%	yes
South Africa	4.5%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	2.9%	yes
All other countries	5.7%

Wheat — 2019, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Estonia (at home)	96.7%	—
Latvia	1.5%	—
Poland	0.9%	—
Lithuania	0.4%	—
Czechia	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.3%

Milk — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Estonia (at home)	90.5%	—
Latvia	6.0%	—
Poland	1.0%	—
Finland	0.8%	—
Lithuania	0.6%	—
Denmark	0.4%	—
All other countries	0.7%

Natural rubber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Thailand	33.1%	yes
Cote d'Ivoire	22.4%	—
Viet Nam	18.4%	—
Malaysia	6.5%	—
Indonesia	4.5%	yes
Cambodia	3.5%	—
All other countries	11.6%

Maize — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Poland	31.1%	—
Lithuania	16.7%	—
France	15.0%	yes
Ukraine	13.0%	yes
Russian Federation	9.7%	yes
South Africa	3.1%	yes
All other countries	11.4%

Rice — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Pakistan	23.2%	yes
Myanmar	22.0%	yes
Italy	15.6%	—
India	9.1%	yes
Viet Nam	6.2%	—
Cambodia	6.1%	—
All other countries	17.9%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	30.9%	yes
United States	19.1%	—
China	13.2%	—
Lithuania	11.8%	—
Ukraine	7.5%	yes
Italy	4.3%	—
All other countries	13.2%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Poland	31.1%	—
Lithuania	25.8%	—
Denmark	14.1%	—
Germany	6.3%	yes
Brazil	5.6%	yes
Ukraine	4.0%	yes
All other countries	13.3%

Coffee — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	56.9%	yes
Colombia	10.7%	yes
Uganda	6.6%	yes
Ethiopia	3.6%	yes
Honduras	3.6%	yes
India	3.3%	yes
All other countries	15.2%

Cocoa — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Cote d'Ivoire	43.1%	—
Peru	16.1%	—
Ecuador	12.3%	yes
Venezuela, RB	10.6%	yes
Ghana	4.4%	yes
Nigeria	3.2%	yes
All other countries	10.4%

Palm oil — 2016, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	39.2%	—
Malaysia	34.0%	—
Papua New Guinea	6.6%	—
Honduras	6.0%	yes
Guatemala	5.4%	yes
Colombia	4.4%	yes
All other countries	4.3%

Cotton — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Turkiye	28.5%	yes
Pakistan	17.5%	yes
Brazil	15.3%	yes
India	14.7%	yes
United States	11.9%	—
Azerbaijan	2.5%	—
All other countries	9.6%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Estonia (at home)	56.0%	—
Poland	13.2%	—
Denmark	7.4%	—
Lithuania	3.4%	—
Latvia	3.3%	—
Germany	3.2%	yes
All other countries	13.6%

Timber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Estonia (at home)	66.7%	—
Finland	15.9%	—
Latvia	9.1%	—
Sweden	3.5%	—
Lithuania	1.0%	—
Ukraine	0.7%	yes
All other countries	3.1%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Italy	22.8%	—
India	12.8%	yes
Brazil	11.8%	yes
Malawi	5.9%	—
United States	4.6%	—
Bangladesh	4.5%	yes
All other countries	37.6%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	32.3%	yes
Latvia	23.1%	—
Kazakhstan	11.7%	—
Indonesia	11.7%	yes
Poland	6.9%	—
Russian Federation	5.1%	yes
All other countries	9.2%

“War recorded” marks a source country where war deaths were recorded in the same year. It is a fact about that country, not a claim that this material caused them.

Where what it produces is consumed

For each material this country produces, how much of it is used in each country, including at home.

Wheat — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Nigeria	23.6%
Spain	13.5%
Senegal	6.5%
Cameroon	6.4%
Cote d'Ivoire	5.7%
South Africa	5.2%
All other countries	39.2%

Milk — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Estonia (at home)	69.8%
Lithuania	10.5%
Latvia	8.8%
Poland	5.1%
Finland	0.4%
Bulgaria	0.4%
All other countries	4.9%

Sugar — 1997, by value
Consumed in	Share
All other countries	100.0%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Estonia (at home)	64.5%
Latvia	5.0%
Lithuania	4.4%
Finland	1.3%
Croatia	0.9%
Georgia	0.4%
All other countries	23.6%

Timber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Estonia (at home)	55.7%
Sweden	6.6%
United Kingdom	5.7%
Finland	5.4%
Netherlands	2.5%
France	2.2%
All other countries	22.0%

Wood charcoal — 2016, by value
Consumed in	Share
Estonia (at home)	42.8%
France	27.0%
Finland	13.0%
Latvia	1.2%
San Marino	0.0%
All other countries	16.0%

The number this page does not show

The harm these supply chains carry is calculated, and not shown.

The model passes the harm counted where a material is produced on to the countries that use it. That is a count of people from a recorded calculation, with no range yet, and nothing of that kind is published before the model passes its test on past years. What this page can show without it is the structure: who produces, who uses, and where harm is recorded along the way.

Sources

Sources
Version of the data	Downloaded	File fingerprint
ilostat · fatal-20261006	2026-10-06	`700fa580091e41e7…`
faostat · qcl-20251231	2026-09-29	`c5835418c18f9322…`
faostat · fo-20260109	2026-09-29	`c2f7fc99651f620b…`
faostat · rl-20261002	2026-10-06	`39b739fbfb694971…`
aquastat · ds-20260713	2026-10-06	`3bca93e1d4430099…`
baci · HS92_V202601-20260130	2026-09-29	`43259580059fa83e…`
ucdp · ged-v26.1	2026-09-10	`8c941d84954e555e…`

CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_FATL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.

Sources →

Estonia