Harm counted here, in the products the model covers

Each product whose supply chain counts deaths in Lebanon, with its deaths per item and the part of that figure counted here — the other side of the story: harm suffered here, in things mostly bought elsewhere.

Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023.

Harm counted here, in the products the model covers
Product	Deaths per item
Pack of cigarettes Part from here: 3.5%	3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(1.4–8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Butter Part from here: 0.11%	3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Croissant Part from here: 0.10%	0.42–2.4 × 10⁻⁸ per itemINDICATIVES-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Wheat flour Part from here: <0.1%	1.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.44–2.6 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Bag of charcoal Part from here: <0.1%	1.5 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.61–3.5 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Refined sugar Part from here: <0.1%	6.1 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.24–1.5 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Chocolate bar Part from here: <0.1%	2.5 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.2–5.8 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

The figure is the product’s own, with its range. The share beside it is a middle estimate only: the calculation stores a range for each figure, not for each part of one.

Recorded here

Deaths recorded for this country, as their publishers counted them: war deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and deaths at work reported to the International Labour Organization. Both are records, and both are floors, not estimates of the whole. A war death is recorded where it happened, whoever died.

Recorded here
Kind of harm	Years	Deaths recorded	Latest year
War deaths (UCDP)	1989–2025	11,268	347 (2025)

What it produces

The latest year on record for each material, and this country’s share of the production on record for that year. That is not always a share of the world total: when a publisher lumps small producers together as “other countries”, that group is not a country and is not loaded.

What it produces
Material	Produced	Share of recorded production	Quality
Wheat (2024)	94,000 t	0.0%	gap filled
Milk (2024)	246,716 t	0.0%	estimated
Maize (2024)	5,000 t	0.0%	gap filled
Sugar (2024)	10,185 t	0.0%	estimated
Livestock (2024)	184,744 t	0.1%	gap filled
Timber (2024)	7,150 m3	0.0%	estimated
Tobacco (unmanufactured) (2024)	10,522 t	0.2%	gap filled
Wood charcoal (2024)	3,000 t	0.0%	gap filled
Agricultural land (2024)	651,300 ha	0.0%	gap filled
Forest (2025)	141,320 ha	0.0%	external
Fresh water (2023)	240,000,000 m3	0.0%	gap filled

Where what it consumes is produced

For each material, how much of what this country uses was produced in each country. It is traced through trade, so a country that only passes a material on is not counted as its source: it hands on the mix it imported. The largest sources are listed and the rest added together.

Crude petroleum — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	30.1%	yes
Norway	11.5%	—
Libya	8.8%	yes
United States	8.0%	yes
Kazakhstan	5.7%	—
Iraq	5.4%	yes
All other countries	30.5%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Algeria	55.0%	yes
United States	21.3%	—
Russian Federation	5.9%	yes
Norway	4.5%	—
Azerbaijan	3.4%	—
Egypt, Arab Rep.	3.1%	—
All other countries	6.9%

Coal and lignite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Colombia	53.9%	yes
Turkiye	30.7%	yes
Russian Federation	8.7%	yes
United States	3.0%	—
Australia	2.7%	—
Kazakhstan	0.4%	—
All other countries	0.6%

Cobalt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Congo, Dem. Rep.	44.9%	yes
Australia	15.3%	—
Canada	13.4%	—
Madagascar	12.4%	—
Turkiye	5.4%	yes
Indonesia	3.3%	yes
All other countries	5.2%

Copper — 2013, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Chile	35.7%	—
Kazakhstan	24.9%	—
Poland	8.9%	—
Congo, Dem. Rep.	8.7%	yes
Zambia	8.1%	—
Peru	6.4%	yes
All other countries	7.2%

Lithium — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Chile	41.3%	—
Australia	28.1%	—
China	16.2%	—
Argentina	6.4%	yes
Zimbabwe	5.0%	—
Brazil	2.0%	yes
All other countries	0.9%

Nickel — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	42.6%	yes
Australia	26.3%	—
Canada	15.3%	—
Indonesia	7.6%	yes
Brazil	3.7%	yes
Philippines	1.6%	yes
All other countries	3.0%

Gold — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	14.2%	yes
Uzbekistan	12.7%	—
United States	11.7%	—
Ghana	10.8%	yes
Canada	9.7%	—
Australia	9.1%	—
All other countries	31.9%

Tin — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	31.2%	yes
Peru	30.4%	—
Bolivia	13.0%	—
Brazil	12.7%	yes
China	6.9%	—
Congo, Dem. Rep.	2.1%	yes
All other countries	3.7%

Tantalum — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Nigeria	31.3%	yes
Rwanda	29.0%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	19.5%	yes
China	6.4%	—
Brazil	5.7%	yes
Mozambique	3.2%	yes
All other countries	4.8%

Tungsten — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	91.6%	—
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.	2.5%	—
Rwanda	1.4%	yes
Bolivia	1.3%	—
Russian Federation	1.1%	yes
Austria	0.6%	—
All other countries	1.5%

Iron ore — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
India	98.5%	yes
Australia	1.0%	—
Brazil	0.4%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Bauxite — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Guinea	97.2%	—
China	1.5%	yes
Turkiye	1.0%	yes
Australia	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.2%

Rare earth elements — 2020, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	80.4%	—
China	13.5%	—
Myanmar	2.8%	yes
Russian Federation	1.4%	yes
Australia	0.9%	—
India	0.6%	yes
All other countries	0.4%

Silver — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Peru	21.5%	—
Poland	14.6%	—
Mexico	13.0%	yes
Argentina	11.6%	yes
Chile	7.2%	—
Australia	5.9%	—
All other countries	26.2%

Zinc — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Peru	36.0%	—
Sweden	17.5%	—
Mexico	16.6%	yes
Bolivia	15.7%	—
United States	6.3%	—
Australia	3.7%	—
All other countries	4.3%

Phosphate rock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	100.0%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Manganese — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	45.9%	yes
Gabon	25.6%	—
Ghana	9.4%	yes
Australia	9.0%	—
China	5.3%	—
Brazil	3.5%	yes
All other countries	1.3%

Natural graphite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	59.6%	—
Madagascar	13.7%	—
Mozambique	10.1%	yes
Brazil	8.2%	yes
Norway	3.5%	—
Turkiye	2.1%	yes
All other countries	2.9%

Salt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Egypt, Arab Rep.	54.9%	—
France	10.8%	yes
Pakistan	9.9%	yes
Spain	5.5%	—
Turkiye	5.5%	yes
Netherlands	4.5%	—
All other countries	8.8%

Silica sand — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Netherlands	30.9%	—
Saudi Arabia	23.7%	—
Italy	22.6%	—
China	6.5%	—
Germany	4.6%	yes
Turkiye	4.0%	yes
All other countries	7.8%

Natural diamonds (rough) — 2021, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	36.0%	yes
Botswana	20.5%	—
Canada	17.0%	—
Angola	10.5%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	4.4%	yes
South Africa	4.3%	yes
All other countries	7.2%

Wheat — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	62.6%	yes
Russian Federation	21.9%	yes
Lebanon (at home)	8.0%	yes
Romania	5.4%	—
Moldova	1.2%	—
Serbia	0.4%	—
All other countries	0.6%

Milk — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Lebanon (at home)	57.2%	yes
Denmark	5.9%	—
France	4.3%	yes
Netherlands	3.9%	—
United Kingdom	3.0%	—
Saudi Arabia	2.9%	—
All other countries	22.8%

Natural rubber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Thailand	55.3%	yes
Viet Nam	27.5%	—
Cambodia	4.9%	—
Cote d'Ivoire	4.7%	—
Malaysia	2.4%	—
Indonesia	2.0%	yes
All other countries	3.1%

Maize — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	59.1%	yes
Romania	14.2%	—
Moldova	4.8%	—
Serbia	3.9%	—
Argentina	3.9%	yes
Russian Federation	3.5%	yes
All other countries	10.7%

Rice — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
India	34.3%	yes
China	23.5%	—
Thailand	12.6%	yes
Egypt, Arab Rep.	9.2%	—
Pakistan	5.9%	yes
Italy	4.6%	—
All other countries	10.0%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	40.6%	yes
Brazil	29.5%	yes
United States	29.5%	—
Paraguay	0.2%	—
Canada	0.1%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	54.2%	yes
France	10.3%	yes
Ukraine	9.8%	yes
India	6.6%	yes
Egypt, Arab Rep.	6.0%	—
Poland	5.3%	—
All other countries	7.8%

Coffee — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	83.4%	yes
Ethiopia	2.6%	yes
Colombia	2.6%	yes
Uganda	2.5%	yes
Sierra Leone	2.0%	—
Viet Nam	1.2%	—
All other countries	5.7%

Cocoa — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Guatemala	23.7%	yes
Ghana	17.0%	yes
Cote d'Ivoire	13.6%	—
Colombia	13.1%	yes
Honduras	6.2%	yes
Ecuador	5.2%	yes
All other countries	21.3%

Palm oil — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	49.8%	yes
Malaysia	49.5%	—
Thailand	0.3%	yes
Papua New Guinea	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.2%

Cotton — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	62.1%	—
Brazil	13.0%	yes
United States	12.5%	—
Turkiye	5.5%	yes
Australia	2.5%	—
India	0.8%	yes
All other countries	3.6%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Lebanon (at home)	59.4%	yes
Brazil	18.6%	yes
Spain	4.7%	—
Ukraine	3.3%	yes
India	2.1%	yes
Croatia	1.5%	—
All other countries	10.4%

Timber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Romania	35.2%	—
Russian Federation	23.2%	yes
United States	9.0%	—
Austria	3.6%	—
Germany	3.5%	yes
Cameroon	3.0%	yes
All other countries	22.4%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Lebanon (at home)	38.8%	yes
Brazil	23.1%	yes
United States	11.3%	—
Tanzania	4.6%	yes
India	3.3%	yes
Italy	1.9%	—
All other countries	16.9%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	63.9%	yes
Nigeria	14.9%	yes
Venezuela, RB	8.0%	yes
Lebanon (at home)	4.8%	yes
Thailand	1.7%	yes
Egypt, Arab Rep.	1.7%	—
All other countries	4.9%

“War recorded” marks a source country where war deaths were recorded in the same year. It is a fact about that country, not a claim that this material caused them.

Where what it produces is consumed

For each material this country produces, how much of it is used in each country, including at home.

Wheat — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	98.7%
Maldives	0.0%
Sierra Leone	0.0%
All other countries	1.3%

Milk — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	99.8%
All other countries	0.2%

Maize — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	93.6%
All other countries	6.4%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	95.8%
All other countries	4.2%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	99.8%
Liberia	0.0%
All other countries	0.2%

Timber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	97.8%
All other countries	2.2%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	86.4%
Egypt, Arab Rep.	1.8%
Greece	1.4%
Morocco	0.9%
Ukraine	0.7%
Bulgaria	0.7%
All other countries	8.1%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Lebanon (at home)	99.6%
All other countries	0.4%

The number this page does not show

The harm these supply chains carry is calculated, and not shown.

The model passes the harm counted where a material is produced on to the countries that use it. That is a count of people from a recorded calculation, with no range yet, and nothing of that kind is published before the model passes its test on past years. What this page can show without it is the structure: who produces, who uses, and where harm is recorded along the way.

Sources

Sources
Version of the data	Downloaded	File fingerprint
ucdp · ged-v26.1	2026-09-10	`8c941d84954e555e…`
faostat · qcl-20251231	2026-09-29	`c5835418c18f9322…`
faostat · fo-20260109	2026-09-29	`c2f7fc99651f620b…`
faostat · rl-20261002	2026-10-06	`39b739fbfb694971…`
aquastat · ds-20260713	2026-10-06	`3bca93e1d4430099…`
baci · HS92_V202601-20260130	2026-09-29	`43259580059fa83e…`

CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.

Sources →

Lebanon