Harm counted here, in the products the model covers

Each product whose supply chain counts deaths in Luxembourg, with its deaths per item and the part of that figure counted here — the other side of the story: harm suffered here, in things mostly bought elsewhere.

Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023.

Harm counted here, in the products the model covers
Product	Deaths per item
Butter Part from here: <0.1%	3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Croissant Part from here: <0.1%	0.42–2.4 × 10⁻⁸ per itemINDICATIVES-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Wheat flour Part from here: <0.1%	1.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.44–2.6 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Refined sugar Part from here: <0.1%	6.1 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.24–1.5 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Chocolate bar Part from here: <0.1%	2.5 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.2–5.8 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

The figure is the product’s own, with its range. The share beside it is a middle estimate only: the calculation stores a range for each figure, not for each part of one.

Recorded here

Deaths recorded for this country, as their publishers counted them: war deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and deaths at work reported to the International Labour Organization. Both are records, and both are floors, not estimates of the whole. A war death is recorded where it happened, whoever died.

Recorded here
Kind of harm	Years	Deaths recorded	Latest year
Deaths at work (ILOSTAT, as reported)	1970–2024	603	4 (2024)

What it produces

The latest year on record for each material, and this country’s share of the production on record for that year. That is not always a share of the world total: when a publisher lumps small producers together as “other countries”, that group is not a country and is not loaded.

What it produces
Material	Produced	Share of recorded production	Quality
Wheat (2024)	65,860 t	0.0%	reported
Milk (2024)	485,790 t	0.0%	reported
Maize (2024)	1,720 t	0.0%	reported
Soybeans (2024)	50 t	0.0%	reported
Sugar (2024)	1,700 t	0.0%	reported
Livestock (2024)	19,780 t	0.0%	reported
Timber (2024)	228,586 m3	0.0%	estimated
Agricultural land (2024)	133,030 ha	0.0%	reported
Forest (2025)	88,700 ha	0.0%	external
Fresh water (2023)	43,530,000 m3	0.0%	gap filled

Where what it consumes is produced

For each material, how much of what this country uses was produced in each country. It is traced through trade, so a country that only passes a material on is not counted as its source: it hands on the mix it imported. The largest sources are listed and the rest added together.

Crude petroleum — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	18.7%	—
Norway	16.2%	—
Kazakhstan	8.6%	—
Iraq	7.1%	yes
Libya	6.6%	yes
Canada	6.2%	—
All other countries	36.6%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Norway	53.7%	—
United States	15.3%	—
Russian Federation	10.2%	yes
Qatar	7.1%	—
United Kingdom	5.9%	—
Netherlands	2.1%	—
All other countries	5.7%

Coal and lignite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	43.8%	yes
Australia	21.5%	—
United States	13.3%	—
Germany	9.2%	yes
Peru	5.2%	—
Colombia	2.4%	yes
All other countries	4.6%

Cobalt — 2016, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Canada	26.1%	—
Australia	19.1%	—
Congo, Dem. Rep.	16.2%	yes
South Africa	13.0%	yes
Russian Federation	8.1%	yes
Madagascar	7.9%	—
All other countries	9.7%

Copper — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Zambia	90.2%	—
Congo, Dem. Rep.	5.2%	yes
Chile	2.0%	—
Russian Federation	1.0%	yes
Poland	0.6%	yes
Peru	0.5%	yes
All other countries	0.6%

Lithium — 2018, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Chile	52.8%	—
Australia	30.3%	yes
China	7.0%	—
Argentina	6.7%	—
Zimbabwe	2.1%	yes
Canada	0.8%	—
All other countries	0.4%

Gold — 2020, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	12.8%	—
South Africa	9.4%	yes
Russian Federation	8.8%	yes
Ghana	8.1%	—
Canada	8.1%	—
Brazil	6.0%	yes
All other countries	46.8%

Tin — 2011, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Rwanda	43.6%	—
Indonesia	18.5%	yes
Peru	17.5%	yes
Bolivia	8.8%	—
China	7.0%	—
Brazil	2.6%	yes
All other countries	2.0%

Tantalum — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	46.9%	yes
Mozambique	16.6%	yes
Nigeria	11.5%	yes
Rwanda	10.1%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	8.8%	yes
Australia	2.4%	—
All other countries	3.6%

Tungsten — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	72.3%	—
Bolivia	7.4%	—
Austria	6.0%	—
Portugal	4.8%	—
Spain	4.0%	—
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.	2.0%	—
All other countries	3.6%

Iron ore — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	98.2%	yes
Canada	0.7%	—
Sweden	0.4%	—
Brazil	0.4%	yes
United States	0.2%	—
South Africa	0.1%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Bauxite — 2017, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Guinea	64.6%	—
Brazil	14.4%	yes
China	13.4%	yes
Australia	4.1%	—
India	1.7%	yes
Russian Federation	0.9%	yes
All other countries	0.9%

Rare earth elements — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	75.4%	—
United States	8.7%	—
Myanmar	7.5%	yes
Australia	4.7%	—
Russian Federation	1.5%	yes
India	1.4%	yes
All other countries	0.7%

Silver — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Mexico	24.0%	yes
Poland	14.6%	—
Bolivia	13.8%	—
Australia	10.5%	—
Peru	7.3%	—
Argentina	7.1%	yes
All other countries	22.7%

Phosphate rock — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	75.5%	yes
Brazil	24.5%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Manganese — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	86.6%	yes
Gabon	6.0%	—
Ghana	2.7%	yes
Australia	2.5%	—
China	1.5%	—
Brazil	0.4%	yes
All other countries	0.4%

Natural graphite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	73.5%	—
Madagascar	9.0%	—
Brazil	7.2%	yes
Mozambique	6.4%	yes
Norway	1.7%	—
Canada	0.9%	—
All other countries	1.3%

Salt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Germany	52.0%	yes
France	19.4%	yes
Netherlands	14.6%	—
Spain	4.6%	—
United Kingdom	2.1%	—
Poland	1.5%	—
All other countries	5.7%

Silica sand — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Germany	42.8%	yes
Netherlands	37.4%	—
France	9.6%	yes
United States	5.9%	—
United Kingdom	1.0%	—
Australia	0.7%	—
All other countries	2.7%

Natural diamonds (rough) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	42.1%	yes
Botswana	15.6%	—
Canada	14.9%	—
Angola	10.3%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	5.5%	yes
Russian Federation	5.3%	yes
All other countries	6.2%

Wheat — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
France	42.9%	yes
Luxembourg (at home)	23.5%	—
Germany	13.4%	yes
Canada	5.6%	—
Slovak Republic	4.4%	—
Czechia	3.0%	—
All other countries	7.1%

Milk — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Luxembourg (at home)	81.3%	—
France	11.5%	yes
Belgium	3.1%	—
Germany	1.6%	yes
Netherlands	1.5%	—
Italy	0.3%	—
All other countries	0.8%

Natural rubber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	50.8%	yes
Cote d'Ivoire	26.5%	—
Thailand	15.2%	yes
Malaysia	1.6%	—
Cameroon	1.4%	yes
Viet Nam	1.3%	—
All other countries	3.1%

Maize — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
France	64.9%	yes
Ukraine	10.6%	yes
Germany	6.0%	yes
Luxembourg (at home)	5.0%	—
Poland	3.6%	—
Belgium	2.1%	—
All other countries	7.9%

Rice — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
India	22.5%	yes
Italy	13.1%	—
Thailand	11.7%	yes
Pakistan	11.4%	yes
Myanmar	9.1%	yes
Japan	5.6%	—
All other countries	26.7%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Canada	27.7%	—
Brazil	21.6%	yes
United States	15.9%	—
France	8.5%	yes
Ukraine	6.7%	yes
Luxembourg (at home)	4.6%	—
All other countries	15.0%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
France	38.5%	yes
Germany	24.3%	yes
Belgium	12.1%	—
Netherlands	6.2%	—
Brazil	4.9%	yes
Poland	3.1%	—
All other countries	10.9%

Coffee — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	51.0%	yes
Colombia	7.6%	yes
Uganda	7.3%	yes
Viet Nam	6.2%	—
India	5.0%	yes
Peru	4.5%	—
All other countries	18.5%

Cocoa — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Colombia	70.7%	yes
Dominican Republic	7.4%	—
Cote d'Ivoire	4.5%	—
Ghana	4.2%	yes
Ecuador	4.1%	yes
Mexico	2.6%	yes
All other countries	6.5%

Palm oil — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	39.7%	yes
Malaysia	36.1%	—
Papua New Guinea	5.9%	yes
Guatemala	5.0%	yes
Honduras	3.0%	yes
Colombia	2.4%	yes
All other countries	7.9%

Cotton — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	31.2%	—
Kazakhstan	12.6%	—
Turkiye	10.8%	yes
Brazil	8.8%	yes
Tanzania	8.6%	yes
Turkmenistan	6.6%	—
All other countries	21.5%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Luxembourg (at home)	36.5%	—
Belgium	23.3%	—
France	13.3%	yes
Germany	8.1%	yes
Netherlands	6.9%	—
Ireland	2.1%	—
All other countries	9.6%

Timber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Germany	27.9%	yes
Luxembourg (at home)	25.1%	—
France	23.0%	yes
Belgium	3.8%	—
Sweden	3.0%	—
Finland	2.3%	—
All other countries	14.9%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
India	24.1%	yes
Brazil	16.5%	yes
North Macedonia	9.8%	—
Zimbabwe	9.0%	—
China	8.3%	—
Bangladesh	5.2%	yes
All other countries	27.2%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Namibia	22.7%	—
Cuba	11.2%	—
Ukraine	9.9%	yes
Nigeria	8.1%	yes
Indonesia	7.8%	yes
Poland	7.4%	—
All other countries	33.0%

“War recorded” marks a source country where war deaths were recorded in the same year. It is a fact about that country, not a claim that this material caused them.

Where what it produces is consumed

For each material this country produces, how much of it is used in each country, including at home.

Wheat — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	90.8%
All other countries	9.2%

Milk — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	39.4%
Germany	34.0%
France	7.5%
Belgium	7.2%
Greece	0.7%
Yemen, Rep.	0.2%
All other countries	11.0%

Maize — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	57.4%
All other countries	42.6%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	93.3%
All other countries	6.7%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	66.4%
All other countries	33.6%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	72.9%
All other countries	27.1%

Timber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Luxembourg (at home)	48.8%
Netherlands	10.5%
Belgium	8.5%
All other countries	32.2%

The number this page does not show

The harm these supply chains carry is calculated, and not shown.

The model passes the harm counted where a material is produced on to the countries that use it. That is a count of people from a recorded calculation, with no range yet, and nothing of that kind is published before the model passes its test on past years. What this page can show without it is the structure: who produces, who uses, and where harm is recorded along the way.

Sources

Sources
Version of the data	Downloaded	File fingerprint
ilostat · fatal-20261006	2026-10-06	`700fa580091e41e7…`
faostat · qcl-20251231	2026-09-29	`c5835418c18f9322…`
faostat · fo-20260109	2026-09-29	`c2f7fc99651f620b…`
faostat · rl-20261002	2026-10-06	`39b739fbfb694971…`
aquastat · ds-20260713	2026-10-06	`3bca93e1d4430099…`
baci · HS92_V202601-20260130	2026-09-29	`43259580059fa83e…`
ucdp · ged-v26.1	2026-09-10	`8c941d84954e555e…`

CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_FATL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.

Sources →

Luxembourg