Harm counted here, in the products the model covers

Each product whose supply chain counts deaths in Belarus, with its deaths per item and the part of that figure counted here — the other side of the story: harm suffered here, in things mostly bought elsewhere.

Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023.

Harm counted here, in the products the model covers
Product	Deaths per item
Butter Part from here: 0.15%	3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Croissant Part from here: 0.15%	0.42–2.4 × 10⁻⁸ per itemINDICATIVES-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Refined sugar Part from here: <0.1%	6.1 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.24–1.5 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Wheat flour Part from here: <0.1%	1.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.44–2.6 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Chocolate bar Part from here: <0.1%	2.5 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.2–5.8 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Bag of charcoal Part from here: <0.1%	1.5 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.61–3.5 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

The figure is the product’s own, with its range. The share beside it is a middle estimate only: the calculation stores a range for each figure, not for each part of one.

Recorded here

Deaths recorded for this country, as their publishers counted them: war deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and deaths at work reported to the International Labour Organization. Both are records, and both are floors, not estimates of the whole. A war death is recorded where it happened, whoever died.

Recorded here
Kind of harm	Years	Deaths recorded	Latest year
Deaths at work (ILOSTAT, as reported)	1990–2024	6,848	70 (2024)

What it produces

The latest year on record for each material, and this country’s share of the production on record for that year. That is not always a share of the world total: when a publisher lumps small producers together as “other countries”, that group is not a country and is not loaded.

What it produces
Material	Produced	Share of recorded production	Quality
Crude petroleum (2025)	1,288,291 t	0.0%	gap filled
Natural gas (2024)	69,251,630 m3	0.0%	reported
Salt (2025)	2,000,000 t	0.8%	estimated
Wheat (2024)	2,750,000 t	0.3%	external
Milk (2024)	8,766,758 t	0.9%	reported
Maize (2024)	1,700,000 t	0.1%	external
Sugar (2024)	4,951,236 t	0.2%	reported
Livestock (2024)	1,322,384 t	0.4%	reported
Timber (2024)	14,108,399 m3	0.7%	estimated
Wood charcoal (2024)	5,360 t	0.0%	gap filled
Agricultural land (2024)	7,929,300 ha	0.2%	reported
Forest (2025)	8,975,400 ha	0.2%	external
Fresh water (2023)	629,000,000 m3	0.1%	reported

Where what it consumes is produced

For each material, how much of what this country uses was produced in each country. It is traced through trade, so a country that only passes a material on is not counted as its source: it hands on the mix it imported. The largest sources are listed and the rest added together.

Crude petroleum — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	100.0%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.8%	—
All other countries	0.2%

Coal and lignite — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Kyrgyz Republic	91.6%	—
Kazakhstan	8.1%	—
All other countries	0.3%

Cobalt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Congo, Dem. Rep.	72.3%	yes
Madagascar	6.2%	—
Canada	6.1%	—
Australia	5.9%	—
Indonesia	2.7%	yes
Russian Federation	2.6%	yes
All other countries	4.2%

Copper — 2014, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	99.6%	yes
Chile	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.2%

Lithium — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Chile	32.6%	—
Australia	29.7%	—
China	23.2%	—
Zimbabwe	5.8%	—
Argentina	5.6%	yes
Brazil	2.5%	yes
All other countries	0.7%

Nickel — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	31.0%	yes
Australia	29.1%	—
Canada	27.2%	—
United States	7.1%	—
Brazil	3.3%	yes
New Caledonia	1.1%	—
All other countries	1.2%

Gold — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Canada	13.6%	—
Mexico	13.0%	yes
United States	12.1%	—
Uzbekistan	10.7%	—
Australia	9.4%	—
Ghana	8.1%	yes
All other countries	33.1%

Tin — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Peru	35.3%	—
Indonesia	19.0%	yes
Bolivia	11.7%	—
Brazil	10.5%	yes
China	7.8%	—
Malaysia	4.4%	—
All other countries	11.3%

Tantalum — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Nigeria	21.0%	yes
Rwanda	19.1%	yes
Brazil	18.1%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	14.6%	yes
Mozambique	14.4%	yes
Australia	5.8%	—
All other countries	7.0%

Tungsten — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	95.5%	yes
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.	2.2%	—
Russian Federation	0.8%	yes
Bolivia	0.5%	yes
Rwanda	0.3%	—
Spain	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.5%

Iron ore — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	100.0%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Bauxite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Guinea	97.3%	—
Turkiye	1.7%	yes
China	0.6%	—
Australia	0.3%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Rare earth elements — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	85.7%	—
Myanmar	8.6%	yes
United States	2.5%	—
Australia	2.3%	—
Russian Federation	0.4%	yes
India	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.3%

Silver — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Poland	24.9%	—
Peru	17.4%	—
Mexico	9.4%	yes
China	9.2%	—
Kazakhstan	6.8%	—
Australia	6.7%	—
All other countries	25.5%

Zinc — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Kazakhstan	48.9%	—
Peru	19.1%	—
Russian Federation	11.6%	yes
Mexico	7.9%	yes
Sweden	3.3%	—
Bolivia	3.1%	—
All other countries	6.1%

Phosphate rock — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	86.4%	yes
Brazil	13.6%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Manganese — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	43.3%	yes
Gabon	23.4%	—
Ghana	12.2%	yes
Australia	11.4%	—
China	6.8%	—
Cote d'Ivoire	1.6%	—
All other countries	1.3%

Natural graphite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	74.2%	—
Madagascar	7.2%	—
Canada	6.2%	—
Mozambique	4.9%	yes
Brazil	4.3%	yes
Norway	1.2%	—
All other countries	2.0%

Salt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.7%	—
Germany	0.1%	yes
All other countries	0.1%

Silica sand — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Poland	88.0%	—
Germany	4.0%	yes
China	2.7%	—
Netherlands	1.5%	—
Italy	1.2%	—
United States	0.7%	—
All other countries	1.8%

Natural diamonds (rough) — 2021, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Russian Federation	98.0%	yes
Botswana	0.7%	—
Canada	0.6%	—
Angola	0.2%	yes
South Africa	0.1%	yes
All other countries	0.3%

Wheat — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.5%	—
Germany	0.1%	yes
Poland	0.1%	—
Czechia	0.1%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Milk — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	100.0%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Natural rubber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Thailand	43.2%	yes
Cote d'Ivoire	21.2%	—
Indonesia	13.8%	yes
Viet Nam	9.0%	—
Malaysia	2.0%	—
Liberia	1.8%	yes
All other countries	8.9%

Maize — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	83.3%	—
France	3.3%	yes
Hungary	3.1%	—
Germany	2.6%	yes
Moldova	1.9%	—
Slovak Republic	1.4%	—
All other countries	4.5%

Rice — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Cambodia	29.1%	—
Kazakhstan	22.1%	—
Myanmar	20.8%	yes
India	19.6%	yes
Thailand	3.0%	yes
Pakistan	1.9%	yes
All other countries	3.6%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Ukraine	52.2%	yes
Poland	35.3%	—
United States	4.8%	—
Canada	1.6%	—
Austria	1.5%	—
Slovak Republic	1.2%	—
All other countries	3.4%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.6%	—
China	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.2%

Coffee — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	52.2%	yes
Uganda	9.0%	yes
Viet Nam	7.2%	—
Colombia	5.8%	yes
India	5.5%	yes
Ethiopia	4.1%	yes
All other countries	16.2%

Cocoa — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Cote d'Ivoire	43.1%	—
Peru	16.1%	—
Ecuador	12.3%	yes
Venezuela, RB	10.6%	yes
Ghana	4.4%	yes
Nigeria	3.2%	yes
All other countries	10.4%

Palm oil — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	85.2%	yes
Malaysia	7.9%	—
Guatemala	2.4%	yes
Papua New Guinea	1.9%	yes
Honduras	0.7%	yes
Colombia	0.6%	yes
All other countries	1.3%

Cotton — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Kazakhstan	94.0%	—
Uzbekistan	5.9%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.1%	—
Turkiye	0.3%	yes
China	0.2%	—
Poland	0.1%	—
All other countries	0.4%

Timber — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.9%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	21.0%	yes
North Macedonia	18.1%	—
Greece	17.7%	—
India	6.0%	yes
China	4.1%	—
Bangladesh	3.8%	yes
All other countries	29.1%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Belarus (at home)	99.3%	—
Ukraine	0.5%	yes
All other countries	0.2%

“War recorded” marks a source country where war deaths were recorded in the same year. It is a fact about that country, not a claim that this material caused them.

Where what it produces is consumed

For each material this country produces, how much of it is used in each country, including at home.

Crude petroleum — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Salt — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	93.0%
Poland	2.7%
Latvia	1.6%
Russian Federation	1.2%
Kyrgyz Republic	0.5%
Lithuania	0.2%
All other countries	0.8%

Wheat — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Milk — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	93.3%
Kazakhstan	0.9%
Georgia	0.6%
Malaysia	0.6%
Philippines	0.5%
Uzbekistan	0.5%
All other countries	3.7%

Maize — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	82.7%
Kazakhstan	9.4%
Uzbekistan	5.4%
Armenia	0.7%
Kyrgyz Republic	0.6%
Azerbaijan	0.3%
All other countries	0.8%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	90.8%
Uzbekistan	2.7%
Kazakhstan	0.8%
Azerbaijan	0.2%
Kyrgyz Republic	0.1%
Armenia	0.0%
All other countries	5.4%

Timber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	74.1%
China	12.2%
Azerbaijan	6.6%
Uzbekistan	4.5%
Turkiye	1.3%
Armenia	0.4%
All other countries	1.0%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Belarus (at home)	98.7%
Azerbaijan	0.3%
Armenia	0.2%
All other countries	0.9%

The number this page does not show

The harm these supply chains carry is calculated, and not shown.

The model passes the harm counted where a material is produced on to the countries that use it. That is a count of people from a recorded calculation, with no range yet, and nothing of that kind is published before the model passes its test on past years. What this page can show without it is the structure: who produces, who uses, and where harm is recorded along the way.

Sources

Sources
Version of the data	Downloaded	File fingerprint
ilostat · fatal-20261006	2026-10-06	`700fa580091e41e7…`
eia · intl-20261003	2026-10-06	`9251a5920ebe7044…`
usgs_mcs · MCS2026-20260206	2026-09-29	`582a0aa231aea53d…`
faostat · qcl-20251231	2026-09-29	`c5835418c18f9322…`
faostat · fo-20260109	2026-09-29	`c2f7fc99651f620b…`
faostat · rl-20261002	2026-10-06	`39b739fbfb694971…`
aquastat · ds-20260713	2026-10-06	`3bca93e1d4430099…`
baci · HS92_V202601-20260130	2026-09-29	`43259580059fa83e…`
ucdp · ged-v26.1	2026-09-10	`8c941d84954e555e…`

CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_FATL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics — intl-20261003, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://www.eia.gov/opendata/bulk/INTL.zip. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (EIA Copyrights and Reuse); see https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php.
U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2026-20260206, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/69837e43b66b01367d7ec7c7?f=__disk__d3%2Fac%2F84%2Fd3ac8466552946c5e8caa2c2c6338d9e1aff655d. Licensed under Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal (public domain dedication) (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/).
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.

Sources →

Belarus