Harm counted here, in the products the model covers

Each product whose supply chain counts deaths in Papua New Guinea, with its deaths per item and the part of that figure counted here — the other side of the story: harm suffered here, in things mostly bought elsewhere.

Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023.

Harm counted here, in the products the model covers
Product	Deaths per item
Cocoa butter Part from here: 0.38%	4.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.16–1.1 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Cocoa mass Part from here: 0.38%	4.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.16–1.0 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Chocolate bar Part from here: 0.34%	2.5 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.2–5.8 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Printed circuit board assembly Part from here: 0.17%	1.6 × 10⁻⁶ per item(0.60–3.4 × 10⁻⁶)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Smartphone Part from here: 0.17%	3.0 × 10⁻⁸ per item(1.2–6.3 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Laptop Part from here: 0.16%	5.4 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.21–1.2 × 10⁻⁶)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Diamond ring Part from here: 0.16%	9.2 × 10⁻⁶ per item(0.44–2.0 × 10⁻⁵)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Coffee, one cup Part from here: 0.16%	4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.19–1.2 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Roasted coffee Part from here: 0.16%	6.7 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.27–1.7 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
NMC cathode powder Part from here: <0.1%	1.4 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.71–3.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Lithium-ion cell Part from here: <0.1%	8.4 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.50–1.7 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Lithium-ion battery pack Part from here: <0.1%	6.9 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.36–1.4 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Electric car Part from here: <0.1%	3.0 × 10⁻⁵ per item(1.8–5.5 × 10⁻⁵)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Refined sugar Part from here: <0.1%	6.1 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.24–1.5 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Bag of charcoal Part from here: <0.1%	1.5 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.61–3.5 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Croissant Part from here: <0.1%	0.42–2.4 × 10⁻⁸ per itemINDICATIVES-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Butter Part from here: <0.1%	3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.2 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

The figure is the product’s own, with its range. The share beside it is a middle estimate only: the calculation stores a range for each figure, not for each part of one.

Recorded here

Deaths recorded for this country, as their publishers counted them: war deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and deaths at work reported to the International Labour Organization. Both are records, and both are floors, not estimates of the whole. A war death is recorded where it happened, whoever died.

Recorded here
Kind of harm	Years	Deaths recorded	Latest year
War deaths (UCDP)	1989–2025	1,052	31 (2025)
Deaths at work (ILOSTAT, as reported)	2001–2003	447	180 (2003)

What it produces

The latest year on record for each material, and this country’s share of the production on record for that year. That is not always a share of the world total: when a publisher lumps small producers together as “other countries”, that group is not a country and is not loaded.

What it produces
Material	Produced	Share of recorded production	Quality
Crude petroleum (2025)	1,472,873 t	0.0%	gap filled
Natural gas (2024)	11,407,104,306 m3	0.3%	reported
Cobalt (2025)	2,800 t	0.9%	estimated
Gold (2021)	54 t	2.2%	estimated
Milk (2024)	204 t	0.0%	estimated
Natural rubber (2024)	5,600 t	0.0%	gap filled
Maize (2024)	12,926 t	0.0%	gap filled
Rice (2024)	883 t	0.0%	gap filled
Sugar (2024)	306,330 t	0.0%	gap filled
Coffee (2024)	50,400 t	0.5%	gap filled
Cocoa (2024)	45,000 t	0.9%	gap filled
Palm oil (2023)	770,000 t	1.0%	external
Livestock (2024)	87,094 t	0.0%	gap filled
Timber (2024)	4,072,000 m3	0.2%	estimated
Wood charcoal (2024)	7,486 t	0.0%	estimated
Agricultural land (2024)	1,405,000 ha	0.0%	gap filled
Forest (2025)	34,028,960 ha	0.8%	external
Fresh water (2023)	223,500,000 m3	0.0%	gap filled

Where what it consumes is produced

For each material, how much of what this country uses was produced in each country. It is traced through trade, so a country that only passes a material on is not counted as its source: it hands on the mix it imported. The largest sources are listed and the rest added together.

Crude petroleum — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	94.2%	yes
Tunisia	1.6%	yes
Malaysia	1.5%	—
Saudi Arabia	1.0%	yes
Russian Federation	0.6%	yes
United Arab Emirates	0.3%	—
All other countries	0.9%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	99.9%	yes
All other countries	0.1%

Coal and lignite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Indonesia	96.4%	yes
Australia	1.8%	—
Russian Federation	0.9%	yes
United States	0.4%	—
China	0.4%	—
All other countries	0.1%

Cobalt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	99.9%	yes
All other countries	0.1%

Lithium — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	57.2%	—
China	18.0%	—
Chile	15.5%	—
Zimbabwe	4.1%	—
Argentina	3.4%	yes
Brazil	1.3%	yes
All other countries	0.4%

Nickel — 2013, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Canada	55.0%	—
Australia	15.7%	—
Russian Federation	10.7%	yes
Philippines	4.8%	yes
Brazil	4.8%	yes
South Africa	4.2%	—
All other countries	4.7%

Gold — 2021, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Tin — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	57.2%	yes
Indonesia	18.9%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	6.6%	yes
Australia	5.5%	—
Peru	4.8%	yes
Nigeria	1.8%	yes
All other countries	5.2%

Tantalum — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Nigeria	36.3%	yes
Rwanda	31.5%	—
China	8.3%	yes
Congo, Dem. Rep.	7.9%	yes
Brazil	5.4%	yes
Australia	4.1%	—
All other countries	6.6%

Tungsten — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	61.3%	—
China	31.0%	—
Bolivia	2.6%	—
Austria	1.3%	—
Portugal	1.0%	—
Spain	0.9%	—
All other countries	1.8%

Iron ore — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	99.9%	—
Mauritania	0.1%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Bauxite — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	60.7%	yes
Guinea	31.1%	—
Australia	7.1%	—
Indonesia	0.5%	yes
Turkiye	0.3%	yes
Brazil	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Rare earth elements — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	99.6%	—
China	0.3%	—
United States	0.1%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Zinc — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	74.2%	—
India	6.8%	yes
United States	5.1%	—
Mexico	4.8%	yes
Peru	4.1%	—
Bolivia	3.2%	—
All other countries	1.8%

Phosphate rock — 2023, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Brazil	57.0%	yes
India	35.3%	yes
Tanzania	7.7%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Manganese — 2020, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Gabon	60.7%	—
South Africa	36.0%	yes
Mexico	2.2%	yes
Australia	0.4%	—
Brazil	0.3%	yes
China	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.2%

Natural graphite — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	72.2%	—
Madagascar	12.8%	—
Mozambique	4.5%	yes
Brazil	3.0%	yes
India	2.2%	yes
Canada	1.7%	—
All other countries	3.6%

Salt — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
China	34.6%	—
India	30.7%	yes
Australia	13.7%	—
Germany	7.5%	yes
United States	2.8%	—
Pakistan	2.5%	yes
All other countries	8.1%

Silica sand — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	80.5%	—
Malaysia	11.9%	—
United States	3.1%	—
China	2.8%	—
India	0.9%	yes
Italy	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.6%

Natural diamonds (rough) — 2022, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Botswana	33.2%	—
Russian Federation	26.6%	yes
Canada	19.4%	—
Angola	7.8%	yes
South Africa	5.9%	yes
Namibia	2.7%	—
All other countries	4.4%

Wheat — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	96.8%	—
United States	3.0%	—
Canada	0.2%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Milk — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	48.6%	—
New Zealand	44.5%	—
Netherlands	2.3%	—
Indonesia	1.7%	yes
Papua New Guinea (at home)	0.7%	yes
United States	0.7%	—
All other countries	1.6%

Natural rubber — 2017, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	95.2%	—
Viet Nam	2.8%	—
Indonesia	0.7%	yes
Thailand	0.4%	yes
Cambodia	0.3%	—
Malaysia	0.3%	yes
All other countries	0.3%

Maize — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	74.7%	yes
Australia	21.0%	—
Argentina	2.4%	yes
Chile	0.6%	—
South Africa	0.5%	yes
United States	0.3%	—
All other countries	0.6%

Rice — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Thailand	70.3%	yes
China	28.9%	—
Papua New Guinea (at home)	0.3%	yes
India	0.2%	yes
All other countries	0.3%

Soybeans — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Australia	54.4%	—
United States	23.9%	—
Brazil	9.3%	yes
China	6.1%	—
Indonesia	2.8%	yes
Canada	2.3%	—
All other countries	1.2%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Thailand	36.8%	yes
Papua New Guinea (at home)	26.7%	yes
Brazil	16.7%	yes
Indonesia	10.9%	yes
Australia	4.6%	—
India	3.0%	yes
All other countries	1.2%

Cocoa — 2019, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%	yes
All other countries	0.0%

Palm oil — 2019, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	96.8%	yes
Indonesia	1.9%	yes
Malaysia	1.2%	—
All other countries	0.0%

Cotton — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
United States	72.1%	—
Australia	22.7%	—
Burkina Faso	2.8%	yes
Brazil	1.2%	yes
Pakistan	0.8%	yes
All other countries	0.4%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	81.7%	yes
Australia	13.6%	—
New Zealand	3.6%	—
China	0.4%	—
United States	0.3%	—
Denmark	0.1%	—
All other countries	0.3%

Timber — 1998, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	99.9%	yes
All other countries	0.1%

Tobacco (unmanufactured) — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
South Africa	26.8%	yes
Zimbabwe	21.0%	—
Zambia	13.9%	—
Malawi	11.6%	—
Tanzania	11.4%	yes
Indonesia	4.7%	yes
All other countries	10.7%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Produced in	Share	War recorded
Papua New Guinea (at home)	98.4%	yes
South Africa	0.7%	yes
Indonesia	0.6%	yes
Namibia	0.3%	—
All other countries	0.1%

“War recorded” marks a source country where war deaths were recorded in the same year. It is a fact about that country, not a claim that this material caused them.

Where what it produces is consumed

For each material this country produces, how much of it is used in each country, including at home.

Crude petroleum — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Korea, Rep.	25.1%
Singapore	23.1%
Indonesia	6.3%
Uganda	0.0%
All other countries	45.4%

Natural gas — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Japan	54.6%
China	35.3%
Korea, Rep.	8.1%
Papua New Guinea (at home)	0.9%
Malaysia	0.5%
Hong Kong SAR, China	0.4%
All other countries	0.3%

Cobalt — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Gold — 2021, by value
Consumed in	Share
China	38.9%
India	11.4%
Papua New Guinea (at home)	8.5%
Hong Kong SAR, China	7.3%
Cambodia	5.9%
Korea, Rep.	4.9%
All other countries	23.0%

Milk — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Natural rubber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Malaysia	23.2%
United Arab Emirates	4.0%
Singapore	0.7%
Georgia	0.0%
Oman	0.0%
All other countries	72.1%

Maize — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Rice — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Sugar — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Coffee — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
United States	24.0%
Australia	14.6%
Germany	11.7%
France	5.7%
Japan	3.1%
Malaysia	2.8%
All other countries	38.1%

Cocoa — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Malaysia	45.2%
Indonesia	28.7%
Singapore	12.1%
China	5.8%
Canada	2.7%
United States	2.5%
All other countries	3.0%

Palm oil — 2023, by value
Consumed in	Share
India	26.7%
United Kingdom	19.4%
Netherlands	11.5%
Germany	8.7%
Belgium	7.3%
Poland	4.9%
All other countries	21.6%

Livestock — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	100.0%
All other countries	0.0%

Timber — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
China	87.3%
India	8.6%
Korea, Rep.	1.8%
Philippines	0.1%
Cambodia	0.1%
Senegal	0.0%
All other countries	2.1%

Wood charcoal — 2024, by value
Consumed in	Share
Papua New Guinea (at home)	99.9%
All other countries	0.1%

The number this page does not show

The harm these supply chains carry is calculated, and not shown.

The model passes the harm counted where a material is produced on to the countries that use it. That is a count of people from a recorded calculation, with no range yet, and nothing of that kind is published before the model passes its test on past years. What this page can show without it is the structure: who produces, who uses, and where harm is recorded along the way.

Sources

Sources
Version of the data	Downloaded	File fingerprint
ucdp · ged-v26.1	2026-09-10	`8c941d84954e555e…`
ilostat · fatal-20261006	2026-10-06	`700fa580091e41e7…`
eia · intl-20261003	2026-10-06	`9251a5920ebe7044…`
usgs_mcs · MCS2026-20260206	2026-09-29	`582a0aa231aea53d…`
usgs_mcs · MCS2023-PDF	2026-10-06	`f02c82335ee535b6…`
faostat · qcl-20251231	2026-09-29	`c5835418c18f9322…`
faostat · fo-20260109	2026-09-29	`c2f7fc99651f620b…`
faostat · rl-20261002	2026-10-06	`39b739fbfb694971…`
aquastat · ds-20260713	2026-10-06	`3bca93e1d4430099…`
baci · HS92_V202601-20260130	2026-09-29	`43259580059fa83e…`

CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_FATL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2023-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
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Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.

Sources →

Papua New Guinea