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The full breakdown

How the figure for Glass is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of soda-lime glass. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 3.6 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.6–7.5 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 5.1 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(3.5–7.5 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Silica sand7.3 × 10⁻⁴ t4.9 × 10⁻⁹3.6 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total3.6 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻⁹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Turkiye1.3 × 10⁻⁹36%
Spain1.1 × 10⁻⁹29%
France4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰12%
Netherlands1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰5.3%
Italy1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰4.5%
Germany9.8 × 10⁻¹¹2.7%
Belgium9.2 × 10⁻¹¹2.6%
Poland5.5 × 10⁻¹¹1.5%
United States5.4 × 10⁻¹¹1.5%
Argentina3.6 × 10⁻¹¹1.0%
Japan3.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.82%
Finland2.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.61%
Latvia2.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.57%
Bulgaria1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.45%
Austria1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.45%
Australia5.0 × 10⁻¹²0.14%
Canada3.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Moldova1.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Czechia1.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Norway2.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total3.6 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻⁹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work3.6 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total3.6 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻⁹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed3.6 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total3.6 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 3.6 × 10⁻⁹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products2.4 × 10⁻⁵46%
Mining and quarrying5.4 × 10⁻⁶10%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles2.7 × 10⁻⁶5.2%
Land transport and transport via pipelines2.4 × 10⁻⁶4.7%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.6 × 10⁻⁶3.0%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.4 × 10⁻⁶2.7%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products1.2 × 10⁻⁶2.3%
Construction1.0 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Manufacture of basic metals8.7 × 10⁻⁷1.7%
Rental and leasing activities8.5 × 10⁻⁷1.7%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products8.5 × 10⁻⁷1.7%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.8 × 10⁻⁷1.5%
Employment activities7.2 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities5.6 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Water transport5.4 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Accommodation and food service activities4.8 × 10⁻⁷0.93%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.6 × 10⁻⁷0.89%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products4.4 × 10⁻⁷0.85%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.1 × 10⁻⁷0.79%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply3.4 × 10⁻⁷0.66%
Manufacture of paper and paper products3.4 × 10⁻⁷0.66%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities3.4 × 10⁻⁷0.65%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.3.3 × 10⁻⁷0.64%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.52%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products2.6 × 10⁻⁷0.51%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities2.6 × 10⁻⁷0.51%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.49%
Air transport2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.44%
Postal and courier activities2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Manufacture of electrical equipment1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.32%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.5 × 10⁻⁷0.29%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Human health activities1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.24%
Water collection, treatment and supply9.9 × 10⁻⁸0.19%
Forestry and logging8.1 × 10⁻⁸0.16%
Manufacture of other transport equipment7.4 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Advertising and market research7.3 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities6.9 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding6.6 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media6.1 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations6.0 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing5.9 × 10⁻⁸0.11%
Activities of membership organisations5.5 × 10⁻⁸0.11%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities5.4 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Real estate activities5.3 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods4.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education4.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities4.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other personal service activities3.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities3.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities1.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities1.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Publishing activities1.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture5.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total5.1 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 5.1 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Turkiye1.4 × 10⁻⁵27%
Not placed8.4 × 10⁻⁶16%
Germany5.7 × 10⁻⁶11%
Spain3.9 × 10⁻⁶7.6%
United States3.6 × 10⁻⁶7.0%
France3.0 × 10⁻⁶5.9%
Italy2.4 × 10⁻⁶4.7%
Argentina2.1 × 10⁻⁶4.1%
Portugal1.4 × 10⁻⁶2.8%
Poland9.3 × 10⁻⁷1.8%
Canada9.0 × 10⁻⁷1.8%
Australia8.3 × 10⁻⁷1.6%
Japan7.1 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Switzerland4.2 × 10⁻⁷0.82%
Austria4.2 × 10⁻⁷0.81%
Netherlands4.1 × 10⁻⁷0.80%
Belgium4.0 × 10⁻⁷0.79%
Czechia3.8 × 10⁻⁷0.73%
Sweden2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.44%
Hungary2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.39%
Denmark2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Finland2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Slovenia1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Croatia1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.21%
Slovak Republic9.0 × 10⁻⁸0.18%
Ireland8.4 × 10⁻⁸0.16%
Norway7.0 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Estonia6.1 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Lithuania4.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Greece3.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Mexico3.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Romania3.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Bulgaria3.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Latvia3.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Luxembourg3.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Cyprus1.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Malta1.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Russian Federation2.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Total5.1 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 5.1 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/glass/

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