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The full breakdown

How the figure for Glass is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of soda-lime glass. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹ per item(1.2–5.5 × 10⁻¹¹)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 8.6 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.56–1.3 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Silica sand7.3 × 10⁻⁴ t3.7 × 10⁻¹¹2.7 × 10⁻¹¹100%
Total2.7 × 10⁻¹¹= the headline figure, 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Spain8.2 × 10⁻¹²30%
Turkiye5.7 × 10⁻¹²21%
Moldova5.2 × 10⁻¹²19%
Italy1.7 × 10⁻¹²6.5%
France1.7 × 10⁻¹²6.3%
United States1.5 × 10⁻¹²5.5%
Japan7.7 × 10⁻¹³2.9%
Netherlands5.7 × 10⁻¹³2.1%
Poland4.1 × 10⁻¹³1.5%
Bulgaria3.8 × 10⁻¹³1.4%
Austria3.0 × 10⁻¹³1.1%
Germany2.5 × 10⁻¹³0.94%
Russian Federation1.0 × 10⁻¹³0.38%
Czechia7.3 × 10⁻¹⁴0.27%
Canada6.8 × 10⁻¹⁴0.25%
Argentina3.5 × 10⁻¹⁴0.13%
Australia9.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Norway9.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Total2.7 × 10⁻¹¹= the headline figure, 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work2.7 × 10⁻¹¹100%
Total2.7 × 10⁻¹¹= the headline figure, 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.7 × 10⁻¹¹100%
Total2.7 × 10⁻¹¹= the headline figure, 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying6.2 × 10⁻⁷73%
Manufacture of basic metals5.0 × 10⁻⁸5.8%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products4.3 × 10⁻⁸5.0%
Land transport and transport via pipelines4.0 × 10⁻⁸4.7%
Water transport2.6 × 10⁻⁸3.0%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.8 × 10⁻⁸2.1%
Air transport9.3 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities7.8 × 10⁻⁹0.91%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles5.6 × 10⁻⁹0.65%
Construction4.1 × 10⁻⁹0.47%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply3.5 × 10⁻⁹0.41%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products3.3 × 10⁻⁹0.39%
Postal and courier activities2.3 × 10⁻⁹0.27%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.6 × 10⁻⁹0.19%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Rental and leasing activities1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.15%
Employment activities1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.13%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment8.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products7.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products6.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Forestry and logging6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities9.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities9.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media9.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations9.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding8.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations6.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Telecommunications6.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities5.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities4.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education4.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities3.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities2.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities2.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation1.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total8.6 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 8.6 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed7.4 × 10⁻⁷86%
Turkiye3.3 × 10⁻⁸3.8%
United States1.8 × 10⁻⁸2.2%
Russian Federation1.6 × 10⁻⁸1.9%
Mexico1.2 × 10⁻⁸1.5%
France5.2 × 10⁻⁹0.61%
Japan3.7 × 10⁻⁹0.44%
Italy3.5 × 10⁻⁹0.41%
Spain3.1 × 10⁻⁹0.36%
Germany3.0 × 10⁻⁹0.35%
Poland2.4 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Canada2.3 × 10⁻⁹0.27%
Argentina1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Portugal1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Australia1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Bulgaria8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.10%
Romania8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Austria6.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece5.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Cyprus3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Belgium3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland9.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Luxembourg4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta3.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total8.6 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 8.6 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/glass/

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