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The full breakdown

How the figure for Steel is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of crude steel, world route mix. Scenario Resource-only, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.44–1.2 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-RES · run 2165 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 4.2 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.8–6.4 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-RES · run 2165 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite5.9 × 10⁻⁴ t1.2 × 10⁻⁹7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Iron ore0.0011 t1.7 × 10⁻¹¹1.9 × 10⁻¹¹2.5%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Mexico1.3 × 10⁻¹¹1.7%
Turkiye7.8 × 10⁻¹²1.0%
Russian Federation2.4 × 10⁻¹²0.31%
Colombia1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.16%
Australia9.8 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Mongolia9.8 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
United States9.2 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Poland6.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Canada6.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Germany2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Czechia2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Greece1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bulgaria1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Slovak Republic5.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Thailand3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Georgia3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Korea, Rep.2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Japan2.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Romania2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Uzbekistan4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Argentina2.3 × 10⁻¹⁷<0.1%
Norway1.2 × 10⁻¹⁷<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence7.4 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Work1.6 × 10⁻¹¹2.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Not placed1.6 × 10⁻¹¹2.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel1.3 × 10⁻¹¹1.7%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of basic metals2.2 × 10⁻⁶52%
Mining and quarrying2.0 × 10⁻⁶47%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities9.8 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Forestry and logging4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture8.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.1 × 10⁻⁶98%
Mexico3.7 × 10⁻⁸0.88%
Russian Federation1.4 × 10⁻⁸0.34%
Turkiye4.9 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
United States2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Canada1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Poland7.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Australia6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Japan5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Korea, Rep.4.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Italy2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bulgaria2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Argentina2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Spain2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Germany1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Austria1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
France1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic7.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Romania6.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Netherlands4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Finland4.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Portugal3.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Norway3.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Ireland2.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Sweden2.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Hungary2.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Switzerland1.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Lithuania1.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovenia9.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Croatia8.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Denmark7.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Latvia2.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Belgium1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Luxembourg1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Malta1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2165, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/steel/

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