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The full breakdown

How the figure for Steel is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of crude steel, world route mix. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 4.2 × 10⁻⁹ per item(2.7–7.2 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 5.9 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(3.9–8.7 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite5.9 × 10⁻⁴ t4.7 × 10⁻⁹2.8 × 10⁻⁹66%
Iron ore0.0011 t1.3 × 10⁻⁹1.4 × 10⁻⁹34%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Turkiye1.8 × 10⁻⁹42%
Ukraine1.3 × 10⁻⁹30%
Australia5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰12%
Colombia3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰7.0%
Germany1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰2.4%
Poland9.3 × 10⁻¹¹2.2%
United States3.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.80%
Sweden3.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.76%
Canada2.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.66%
Mexico2.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.53%
Slovenia1.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.24%
Mongolia5.7 × 10⁻¹²0.14%
Slovak Republic5.4 × 10⁻¹²0.13%
Bulgaria4.8 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Czechia2.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Greece2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Thailand2.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Russian Federation1.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Japan1.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Romania5.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Georgia4.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Hungary4.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Uzbekistan5.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Argentina2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Norway3.0 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work2.9 × 10⁻⁹69%
Conflict and political violence1.3 × 10⁻⁹31%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.9 × 10⁻⁹69%
Russia - Ukraine1.3 × 10⁻⁹30%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel2.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.53%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of basic metals2.9 × 10⁻⁵50%
Mining and quarrying6.5 × 10⁻⁶11%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles3.2 × 10⁻⁶5.4%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities3.0 × 10⁻⁶5.1%
Land transport and transport via pipelines2.3 × 10⁻⁶3.9%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.3 × 10⁻⁶2.2%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.2 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Construction9.9 × 10⁻⁷1.7%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment8.5 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products8.2 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Water transport8.2 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products6.9 × 10⁻⁷1.2%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles6.6 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Rental and leasing activities6.5 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Employment activities5.3 × 10⁻⁷0.90%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.4.5 × 10⁻⁷0.76%
Accommodation and food service activities4.1 × 10⁻⁷0.69%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply3.2 × 10⁻⁷0.54%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products3.1 × 10⁻⁷0.53%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles3.0 × 10⁻⁷0.51%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities2.9 × 10⁻⁷0.49%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products2.8 × 10⁻⁷0.48%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.46%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.43%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.43%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities2.4 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.39%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.37%
Air transport2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Postal and courier activities2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.24%
Manufacture of paper and paper products1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.24%
Human health activities1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.23%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.23%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials9.3 × 10⁻⁸0.16%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods9.3 × 10⁻⁸0.16%
Manufacture of other transport equipment7.9 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding7.5 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities6.8 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation6.8 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing6.7 × 10⁻⁸0.11%
Advertising and market research5.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Forestry and logging5.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities5.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media4.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Real estate activities4.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations4.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations4.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education3.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities3.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other personal service activities3.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications3.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities2.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities2.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security1.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Publishing activities9.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities9.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture5.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use2.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total5.9 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 5.9 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.5 × 10⁻⁵26%
Turkiye1.3 × 10⁻⁵22%
Germany6.7 × 10⁻⁶11%
United States3.3 × 10⁻⁶5.7%
Spain2.9 × 10⁻⁶4.9%
Italy2.5 × 10⁻⁶4.2%
France2.5 × 10⁻⁶4.2%
Argentina2.3 × 10⁻⁶3.8%
Japan2.2 × 10⁻⁶3.7%
Canada1.6 × 10⁻⁶2.7%
Australia1.5 × 10⁻⁶2.5%
Portugal6.3 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Austria6.2 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Poland6.1 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Belgium5.8 × 10⁻⁷0.98%
Netherlands4.0 × 10⁻⁷0.69%
Switzerland3.7 × 10⁻⁷0.63%
Sweden3.5 × 10⁻⁷0.59%
Finland3.1 × 10⁻⁷0.52%
Czechia2.8 × 10⁻⁷0.48%
Slovenia2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Denmark1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.28%
Hungary1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Slovak Republic1.0 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Norway9.0 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Ireland6.8 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Mexico6.5 × 10⁻⁸0.11%
Bulgaria6.1 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Greece5.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Luxembourg4.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Croatia2.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Lithuania2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Romania2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Estonia2.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Latvia1.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Russian Federation1.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Cyprus4.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Malta3.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Total5.9 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 5.9 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/steel/

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