The full breakdown
How the figure for Steel is built
Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.
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The headline
One item is one kilogram of crude steel, world route mix. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.
Materials method — 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(2.6–7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
Money method — 2.9 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(1.9–4.4 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.
1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.
| Material | Per item | Deaths per kg | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal and lignite | 5.9 × 10⁻⁴ t | 7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 97% |
| Iron ore | 0.0011 t | 1.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | 1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.1% |
| Total | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | ||
2 · Where the harm was counted
The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.
| Country | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 95% |
| Turkiye | 7.8 × 10⁻¹² | 1.7% |
| Mexico | 7.5 × 10⁻¹² | 1.7% |
| Russian Federation | 2.0 × 10⁻¹² | 0.44% |
| Colombia | 1.2 × 10⁻¹² | 0.27% |
| Australia | 9.8 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.22% |
| Mongolia | 9.8 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.22% |
| United States | 9.2 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.21% |
| Poland | 6.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.15% |
| Canada | 6.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| Germany | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Czechia | 2.0 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Greece | 1.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Bulgaria | 1.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Slovak Republic | 5.7 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Thailand | 3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Georgia | 3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Japan | 2.6 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Romania | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Uzbekistan | 4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Argentina | 2.3 × 10⁻¹⁷ | <0.1% |
| Norway | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁷ | <0.1% |
| Total | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
3 · Through which kind of harm
The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.
| Kind of harm | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict and political violence | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 97% |
| Work | 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.5% |
| Total | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
4 · Which wars
The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.
| War | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Russia - Ukraine | 4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 95% |
| Not placed | 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.5% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel | 7.5 × 10⁻¹² | 1.7% |
| Total | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
5 · The money method: which industries
The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.
| Industry | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacture of basic metals | 1.5 × 10⁻⁶ | 52% |
| Mining and quarrying | 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ | 42% |
| Land transport and transport via pipelines | 4.6 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.6% |
| Water transport | 4.3 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.5% |
| Warehousing and support activities for transportation | 1.8 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.61% |
| Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities | 1.1 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.38% |
| Air transport | 9.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.33% |
| Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 6.9 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.24% |
| Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities | 6.9 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.24% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 5.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.17% |
| Construction | 4.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.15% |
| Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products | 3.6 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.12% |
| Postal and courier activities | 2.3 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Water collection, treatment and supply | 1.8 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products | 1.7 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities | 1.7 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment | 1.4 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 1.4 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Rental and leasing activities | 1.1 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Employment activities | 9.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. | 8.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products | 6.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities | 5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of rubber and plastic products | 5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Repair and installation of machinery and equipment | 4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Repair of computers and personal and household goods | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of electrical equipment | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Forestry and logging | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products | 3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Accommodation and food service activities | 3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products | 3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of paper and paper products | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis | 2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Human health activities | 1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of other transport equipment | 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials | 1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Real estate activities | 1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Advertising and market research | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Other personal service activities | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Printing and reproduction of recorded media | 8.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Activities of membership organisations | 8.5 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities | 8.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations | 5.8 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Telecommunications | 5.6 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Fishing and aquaculture | 5.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities | 5.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation | 5.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities | 4.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Education | 3.8 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities | 2.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Scientific research and development | 2.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities | 2.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security | 2.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Publishing activities | 1.8 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | 3.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Total | 2.9 × 10⁻⁶ | = the headline figure, 2.9 × 10⁻⁶ |
6 · The money method: which countries
The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.
| Country | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Not placed | 2.7 × 10⁻⁶ | 95% |
| Russian Federation | 3.9 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.3% |
| Turkiye | 3.0 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.1% |
| Mexico | 2.2 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.75% |
| United States | 1.6 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.55% |
| Japan | 1.1 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.38% |
| Canada | 4.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.15% |
| France | 4.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.14% |
| Italy | 3.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.12% |
| Germany | 3.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.11% |
| Australia | 2.5 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Spain | 2.0 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Poland | 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Argentina | 1.7 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Bulgaria | 1.6 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Austria | 7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Romania | 7.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Greece | 6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Portugal | 6.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Czechia | 6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Sweden | 5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Belgium | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Hungary | 3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Norway | 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Finland | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Netherlands | 2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Lithuania | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Switzerland | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Slovak Republic | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Slovenia | 2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Denmark | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Latvia | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Estonia | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Croatia | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Ireland | 9.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Luxembourg | 5.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Cyprus | 4.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Malta | 6.9 × 10⁻¹² | <0.1% |
| Total | 2.9 × 10⁻⁶ | = the headline figure, 2.9 × 10⁻⁶ |
What this trail does not show
- Each table is a separate way of dividing the figure. “Cobalt accounts for 40%” and “one country accounts for 60%” are two views of one figure, not a path through it: the calculation stores the figure divided each way on its own, not every combination of them.
- A range belongs to the whole figure. A step’s number is only its middle estimate.
- Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.
Sources behind this figure
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HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/steel/