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The full breakdown

How the figure for Petrol car is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one midsize petrol car of 1,385 kg. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 7.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(0.47–1.2 × 10⁻⁶)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 6.7 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.43–1.0 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite0.51 t7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰3.7 × 10⁻⁷52%
Copper0.034 t9.7 × 10⁻⁹3.3 × 10⁻⁷46%
Iron ore0.98 t1.2 × 10⁻¹¹1.2 × 10⁻⁸1.6%
Bauxite0.71 t5.9 × 10⁻¹²4.2 × 10⁻⁹0.57%
Silica sand0.024 t3.7 × 10⁻¹¹8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Total7.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.2 × 10⁻⁷

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine3.7 × 10⁻⁷50%
Mexico2.0 × 10⁻⁷27%
Congo, Dem. Rep.1.3 × 10⁻⁷18%
Turkiye1.0 × 10⁻⁸1.4%
Poland5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.70%
Russian Federation3.9 × 10⁻⁹0.54%
United States2.9 × 10⁻⁹0.40%
Canada1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Australia1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Colombia1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.15%
Mongolia8.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Greece4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Spain2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Germany2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Moldova1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bulgaria1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Italy5.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
France5.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovak Republic4.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Japan4.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Thailand3.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Georgia3.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Netherlands1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Romania1.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Austria9.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Uzbekistan3.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Argentina1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Norway4.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total7.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.2 × 10⁻⁷

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence7.0 × 10⁻⁷96%
Work2.9 × 10⁻⁸3.9%
Total7.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.2 × 10⁻⁷

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine3.7 × 10⁻⁷51%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel2.0 × 10⁻⁷27%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government9.5 × 10⁻⁸13%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians3.7 × 10⁻⁸5.1%
Not placed2.9 × 10⁻⁸3.9%
Total7.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.2 × 10⁻⁷

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying3.0 × 10⁻⁷45%
Manufacture of basic metals1.7 × 10⁻⁷25%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers5.5 × 10⁻⁸8.3%
Land transport and transport via pipelines3.3 × 10⁻⁸4.9%
Water transport2.3 × 10⁻⁸3.5%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.6 × 10⁻⁸2.4%
Air transport9.0 × 10⁻⁹1.3%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities8.2 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.2 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Construction3.9 × 10⁻⁹0.58%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment3.7 × 10⁻⁹0.55%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles3.0 × 10⁻⁹0.45%
Postal and courier activities2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.42%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products2.5 × 10⁻⁹0.38%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities2.5 × 10⁻⁹0.37%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.30%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.7 × 10⁻⁹0.25%
Rental and leasing activities1.6 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Employment activities1.6 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Manufacture of electrical equipment1.6 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.22%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.20%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities9.5 × 10⁻¹⁰0.14%
Water collection, treatment and supply8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products8.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Forestry and logging6.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products6.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities9.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education8.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Telecommunications7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities7.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture5.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities4.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities4.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development3.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities3.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security3.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use3.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total6.7 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 6.7 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed5.3 × 10⁻⁷80%
United States3.0 × 10⁻⁸4.4%
Turkiye2.4 × 10⁻⁸3.6%
Japan1.6 × 10⁻⁸2.3%
France8.4 × 10⁻⁹1.3%
Germany8.3 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Russian Federation7.3 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Mexico6.5 × 10⁻⁹0.97%
Italy4.1 × 10⁻⁹0.61%
Spain3.9 × 10⁻⁹0.59%
Poland3.4 × 10⁻⁹0.51%
Canada3.2 × 10⁻⁹0.48%
Argentina3.1 × 10⁻⁹0.47%
Czechia2.6 × 10⁻⁹0.40%
Romania2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Portugal1.7 × 10⁻⁹0.25%
Hungary1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.17%
Austria9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰0.14%
Slovak Republic9.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.14%
Bulgaria9.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Sweden8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Australia7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.10%
Belgium4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg8.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia7.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Cyprus2.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta1.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total6.7 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 6.7 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/petrol-car/

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