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The full breakdown

How the figure for Bag of charcoal is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one 3 kg bag of lump wood charcoal, without the bag. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 1.5 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.62–3.7 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 6.0 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(4.1–8.7 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Wood charcoal0.0030 t5.0 × 10⁻⁹1.5 × 10⁻⁸100%
Total1.5 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 1.5 × 10⁻⁸

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Colombia5.1 × 10⁻⁹34%
Argentina2.7 × 10⁻⁹18%
Spain1.9 × 10⁻⁹12%
Congo, Dem. Rep.1.6 × 10⁻⁹11%
Thailand1.3 × 10⁻⁹8.8%
United States8.4 × 10⁻¹⁰5.5%
Germany5.3 × 10⁻¹⁰3.5%
France3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰2.3%
Italy2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰1.4%
Portugal2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰1.3%
Australia8.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.53%
Croatia5.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.35%
Poland5.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.34%
Japan2.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.19%
Czechia2.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.18%
Singapore2.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.13%
Slovak Republic1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.11%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines1.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Austria8.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Belarus5.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Latvia5.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Slovenia4.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Sweden2.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Cyprus9.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Azerbaijan8.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Mongolia8.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Sri Lanka3.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bulgaria3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Panama2.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Romania1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Moldova1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Uzbekistan3.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total1.5 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 1.5 × 10⁻⁸

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work1.3 × 10⁻⁸89%
Conflict and political violence1.6 × 10⁻⁹11%
Total1.5 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 1.5 × 10⁻⁸

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.3 × 10⁻⁸89%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government1.6 × 10⁻⁹11%
Total1.5 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 1.5 × 10⁻⁸

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Forestry and logging4.5 × 10⁻⁵75%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles2.1 × 10⁻⁶3.6%
Land transport and transport via pipelines1.6 × 10⁻⁶2.6%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.1 × 10⁻⁶1.8%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation7.6 × 10⁻⁷1.3%
Construction7.6 × 10⁻⁷1.3%
Mining and quarrying7.1 × 10⁻⁷1.2%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products6.8 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities6.5 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles6.4 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.4 × 10⁻⁷0.73%
Rental and leasing activities4.3 × 10⁻⁷0.72%
Water transport3.6 × 10⁻⁷0.61%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products3.3 × 10⁻⁷0.55%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security3.3 × 10⁻⁷0.55%
Employment activities3.1 × 10⁻⁷0.52%
Accommodation and food service activities3.0 × 10⁻⁷0.50%
Air transport2.8 × 10⁻⁷0.46%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.45%
Manufacture of basic metals2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.39%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.33%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.31%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.29%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.28%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.28%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.5 × 10⁻⁷0.26%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities1.5 × 10⁻⁷0.25%
Postal and courier activities1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.23%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Human health activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products1.0 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Manufacture of paper and paper products9.7 × 10⁻⁸0.16%
Manufacture of electrical equipment8.8 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities8.4 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products7.9 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products7.2 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis5.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding5.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations4.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Water collection, treatment and supply4.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply4.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods4.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment4.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Real estate activities3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media3.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Advertising and market research2.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities2.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other personal service activities2.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications1.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities1.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security1.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities1.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development6.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Publishing activities6.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture6.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities5.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Total6.0 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.0 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Germany1.3 × 10⁻⁵22%
Not placed7.3 × 10⁻⁶12%
France5.2 × 10⁻⁶8.7%
Spain4.5 × 10⁻⁶7.5%
Finland4.5 × 10⁻⁶7.5%
Portugal3.8 × 10⁻⁶6.4%
United States3.5 × 10⁻⁶5.9%
Italy2.9 × 10⁻⁶4.8%
Austria2.9 × 10⁻⁶4.8%
Sweden2.0 × 10⁻⁶3.4%
Argentina1.5 × 10⁻⁶2.5%
Czechia1.2 × 10⁻⁶2.1%
Turkiye1.2 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Japan7.8 × 10⁻⁷1.3%
Canada7.2 × 10⁻⁷1.2%
Australia5.7 × 10⁻⁷0.96%
Poland5.6 × 10⁻⁷0.94%
Switzerland5.5 × 10⁻⁷0.92%
Estonia4.6 × 10⁻⁷0.78%
Denmark3.6 × 10⁻⁷0.61%
Slovak Republic3.4 × 10⁻⁷0.57%
Latvia2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.45%
Slovenia2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Croatia2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.39%
Hungary2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Netherlands1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.32%
Belgium1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Lithuania1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Norway8.7 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Romania8.4 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Ireland7.9 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Bulgaria2.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Luxembourg1.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Greece9.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Cyprus3.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Mexico3.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Malta1.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Russian Federation1.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Total6.0 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.0 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/charcoal-bag/

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