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The full breakdown

How the figure for Coffee, one cup is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one Italian espresso — 25 mL in the cup — as the Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano defines it. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 2.8 × 10⁻⁹ per item(1.2–7.3 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 1.1 × 10⁻⁴ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.75–1.6 × 10⁻⁴)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coffee8.3 × 10⁻⁶ t3.4 × 10⁻⁷2.8 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total2.8 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 2.8 × 10⁻⁹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Colombia2.8 × 10⁻⁹100%
United States3.6 × 10⁻¹²0.12%
Congo, Dem. Rep.2.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Mexico1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Thailand7.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines4.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Sri Lanka5.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Panama3.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Nigeria2.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total2.8 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 2.8 × 10⁻⁹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work2.8 × 10⁻⁹100%
Conflict and political violence6.6 × 10⁻¹²0.23%
Total2.8 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 2.8 × 10⁻⁹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.8 × 10⁻⁹100%
Colombia: Government2.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government6.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Nigeria: Government2.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total2.8 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 2.8 × 10⁻⁹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Accommodation and food service activities7.9 × 10⁻⁵71%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products5.3 × 10⁻⁶4.8%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities3.9 × 10⁻⁶3.5%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles3.5 × 10⁻⁶3.2%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.9 × 10⁻⁶1.8%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.7 × 10⁻⁶1.5%
Land transport and transport via pipelines1.6 × 10⁻⁶1.4%
Construction1.2 × 10⁻⁶1.1%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.1 × 10⁻⁶0.98%
Rental and leasing activities1.0 × 10⁻⁶0.92%
Employment activities9.1 × 10⁻⁷0.82%
Mining and quarrying7.0 × 10⁻⁷0.63%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities6.6 × 10⁻⁷0.60%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products5.3 × 10⁻⁷0.48%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities5.0 × 10⁻⁷0.45%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.5 × 10⁻⁷0.41%
Postal and courier activities4.0 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products3.9 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products3.8 × 10⁻⁷0.34%
Manufacture of paper and paper products3.2 × 10⁻⁷0.29%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment3.0 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Manufacture of basic metals2.9 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Real estate activities2.4 × 10⁻⁷0.22%
Water transport2.4 × 10⁻⁷0.21%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.21%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Fishing and aquaculture2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Air transport2.1 × 10⁻⁷0.19%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Human health activities2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.18%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Manufacture of electrical equipment1.6 × 10⁻⁷0.15%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment1.5 × 10⁻⁷0.14%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.13%
Advertising and market research1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.12%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.12%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.11%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.11%
Other personal service activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.10%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.1 × 10⁻⁷<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products1.0 × 10⁻⁷<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media9.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding9.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods9.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations8.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities7.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing7.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications6.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations6.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Forestry and logging6.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment5.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education4.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities4.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation4.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities2.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Publishing activities2.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development8.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Total1.1 × 10⁻⁴= the headline figure, 1.1 × 10⁻⁴

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
United States2.0 × 10⁻⁵18%
Turkiye1.7 × 10⁻⁵15%
Spain1.4 × 10⁻⁵13%
France9.9 × 10⁻⁶8.9%
Not placed9.8 × 10⁻⁶8.8%
Germany9.1 × 10⁻⁶8.3%
Italy5.7 × 10⁻⁶5.2%
Argentina5.2 × 10⁻⁶4.7%
Canada3.3 × 10⁻⁶3.0%
Portugal2.9 × 10⁻⁶2.7%
Japan2.3 × 10⁻⁶2.1%
Australia2.2 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Netherlands1.8 × 10⁻⁶1.7%
Switzerland1.6 × 10⁻⁶1.4%
Austria9.6 × 10⁻⁷0.87%
Belgium5.9 × 10⁻⁷0.53%
Denmark5.2 × 10⁻⁷0.47%
Poland5.1 × 10⁻⁷0.46%
Sweden4.6 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Finland4.0 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Hungary3.1 × 10⁻⁷0.28%
Ireland3.0 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Czechia2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.21%
Croatia1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Slovenia1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.16%
Greece1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.15%
Norway1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.11%
Luxembourg1.2 × 10⁻⁷0.11%
Cyprus7.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Estonia6.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Slovak Republic5.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Lithuania4.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Malta3.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Romania3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Bulgaria2.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Latvia2.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Mexico2.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Russian Federation6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Total1.1 × 10⁻⁴= the headline figure, 1.1 × 10⁻⁴

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/coffee-cup/

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