The full breakdown
How the figure for Coffee, one cup is built
Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.
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The headline
One item is one Italian espresso — 25 mL in the cup — as the Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano defines it. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.
Materials method — 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.19–1.2 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Money method — 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.78–1.8 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r
Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.
1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.
| Material | Per item | Deaths per kg | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | 8.3 × 10⁻⁶ t | 5.7 × 10⁻⁸ | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 100% |
| Total | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | ||
2 · Where the harm was counted
The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.
| Country | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 36% |
| Central African Republic | 1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 30% |
| Brazil | 3.6 × 10⁻¹¹ | 7.7% |
| Colombia | 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ | 6.1% |
| Honduras | 2.8 × 10⁻¹¹ | 5.9% |
| Congo, Dem. Rep. | 1.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.7% |
| Yemen, Rep. | 9.3 × 10⁻¹² | 2.0% |
| Uganda | 7.6 × 10⁻¹² | 1.6% |
| Haiti | 6.2 × 10⁻¹² | 1.3% |
| Cameroon | 5.2 × 10⁻¹² | 1.1% |
| Mexico | 4.6 × 10⁻¹² | 0.98% |
| Kenya | 4.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.88% |
| Togo | 2.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.59% |
| Burundi | 2.5 × 10⁻¹² | 0.53% |
| Myanmar | 1.7 × 10⁻¹² | 0.37% |
| Guatemala | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.24% |
| Costa Rica | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.23% |
| Papua New Guinea | 7.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.16% |
| Philippines | 6.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| India | 4.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.10% |
| United States | 4.0 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Thailand | 3.0 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Indonesia | 2.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Panama | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Nigeria | 2.0 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Peru | 1.5 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Sri Lanka | 1.4 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Ecuador | 1.4 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Mozambique | 4.4 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Venezuela, RB | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Bolivia | 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Benin | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Ghana | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| China | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.1 × 10⁻¹⁷ | <0.1% |
| Total | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
3 · Through which kind of harm
The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.
| Kind of harm | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict and political violence | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | 96% |
| Work | 1.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.7% |
| Total | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
4 · Which wars
The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.
| War | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia: Government/Amhara | 9.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | 19% |
| Central African Republic: Government | 8.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | 18% |
| AAKG - CPC | 3.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | 7.1% |
| Ethiopia: Oromiya | 3.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | 7.0% |
| M18 - MS-13 | 2.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | 4.9% |
| Not placed | 1.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | 3.7% |
| Government of Ethiopia - Civilians | 1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ | 2.9% |
| OLA - Civilians | 1.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | 2.2% |
| Comando Vermelho - PCC | 1.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | 2.2% |
| Central African Republic: Logone | 1.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | 2.2% |
| IS - Civilians | 1.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | 2.1% |
| Fano - Civilians | 9.4 × 10⁻¹² | 2.0% |
| CPC - Civilians | 9.2 × 10⁻¹² | 2.0% |
| Anuak - Nuer | 9.1 × 10⁻¹² | 1.9% |
| Yemen (North Yemen): Government | 7.9 × 10⁻¹² | 1.7% |
| M18 - Civilians | 4.8 × 10⁻¹² | 1.0% |
| Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho | 3.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.80% |
| Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast | 3.6 × 10⁻¹² | 0.77% |
| EGC - Civilians | 3.5 × 10⁻¹² | 0.73% |
| Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho | 3.4 × 10⁻¹² | 0.73% |
| Government of Central African Republic - Civilians | 3.0 × 10⁻¹² | 0.63% |
| URDPC - Civilians | 2.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.59% |
| Amhara - Oromo | 2.4 × 10⁻¹² | 0.52% |
| Bonde dos 40 - PCC | 2.4 × 10⁻¹² | 0.51% |
| Uganda: Islamic State | 2.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.45% |
| Colombia: Government | 1.9 × 10⁻¹² | 0.41% |
| FARC-EMC - Civilians | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.39% |
| Comando Vermelho - GDE | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.39% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.39% |
| Lengola - Mbole | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.39% |
| Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.39% |
| GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime | 1.8 × 10⁻¹² | 0.38% |
| Burundi: Government | 1.7 × 10⁻¹² | 0.37% |
| JNIM - Civilians | 1.7 × 10⁻¹² | 0.37% |
| PCC - Sindicato do Crime | 1.6 × 10⁻¹² | 0.34% |
| Cameroon: Ambazonia | 1.6 × 10⁻¹² | 0.33% |
| Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá | 1.6 × 10⁻¹² | 0.33% |
| Comando Vermelho - Civilians | 1.3 × 10⁻¹² | 0.28% |
| Government of Rwanda - Civilians | 1.3 × 10⁻¹² | 0.27% |
| DR Congo (Zaire): Government | 1.3 × 10⁻¹² | 0.27% |
| DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State | 1.3 × 10⁻¹² | 0.27% |
| FARC-EMC - ELN | 1.2 × 10⁻¹² | 0.25% |
| Government of Haiti - Civilians | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.24% |
| Forces of Tony Peña - Los Hondureños | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.23% |
| Guraghe - Mareqo | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.23% |
| Togo: Government | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.23% |
| AQAP - Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council | 1.1 × 10⁻¹² | 0.23% |
| G9 - G-Pep | 1.0 × 10⁻¹² | 0.22% |
| Terre Noire - Civilians | 9.8 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.21% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Government | 9.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.20% |
| 5 Segond, Taliban - Civilians | 9.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.20% |
| Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho | 9.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.20% |
| Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho | 9.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.20% |
| Cameroon: Government | 9.3 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.20% |
| JAS - Civilians | 9.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.19% |
| MS-13 - Civilians | 9.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.19% |
| Grand Ravine - Civilians | 8.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.19% |
| Ambazonia insurgents - Civilians | 8.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.18% |
| FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians | 7.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.17% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel | 7.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.17% |
| M23 - VDP | 7.9 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.17% |
| Mobondo - Civilians | 7.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.16% |
| Government of Burundi - Civilians | 7.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.16% |
| ELN - Civilians | 7.5 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.16% |
| Ambulin, Lungupin, Nenei, Sau, Sau Walep, Yandamau, Yopo - Kaekin, Lanzerakin, Lyona, Mupapalu, Murap, Palinau, Sakaikin, Sikin, Wapukin | 7.3 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.16% |
| Murle - Nuer | 7.2 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.15% |
| Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel | 7.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.15% |
| Comando Vermelho - Holanda | 6.7 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| G-Pep - Civilians | 6.7 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| Farmers (CAR) - Herders (CAR) | 6.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| AAKG - Civilians | 6.6 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.14% |
| Los Costenos - Los Pepes | 6.3 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.13% |
| EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC | 6.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.13% |
| M23 - Civilians | 6.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.13% |
| EGC - ELN | 5.8 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.12% |
| Somalia: Government | 5.4 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Rwanda: Government | 5.4 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation | 5.3 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Comando Vermelho - Massa | 5.1 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians | 5.0 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Nova Okaida - PCC | 5.0 × 10⁻¹³ | 0.11% |
| Bonde do Maluco - Katiara | 4.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Bonde do Maluco - Civilians | 4.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Cameroon: Islamic State | 4.3 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Al-Shabaab - Civilians | 4.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Philippines: Government | 3.9 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Bonde dos 40 - Civilians | 3.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro | 3.5 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians | 3.3 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos | 3.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| PCC - Civilians | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Gran Grif - Civilians | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| 400 Mawozo - Civilians | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada | 2.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| URDPC - Zaire self-defense group | 2.5 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco | 2.3 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Zaire self-defense group - Civilians | 2.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Amhara - Gumuz | 2.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| VDP - Civilians | 2.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Government of Colombia - Civilians | 2.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Government of Cameroon - Civilians | 2.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Philippines: Islamic State | 1.9 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Government of Brazil - Civilians | 1.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| United Kingdom, United States of America - Yemen | 1.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Indonesia: West Papua | 1.7 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC | 1.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Kachin | 1.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians | 1.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara | 1.6 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Peru: Government | 1.5 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Bonde dos 40 - PCM | 1.5 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| India: Kashmir | 1.4 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG | 1.3 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Comités locaux de vigilance - JAS | 1.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Kuki - Meitei | 1.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Government of Yemen (North Yemen) - Civilians | 1.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| AFC - Civilians | 1.2 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| India: Government | 1.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB | 1.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Karen | 1.1 × 10⁻¹³ | <0.1% |
| Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians | 9.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos | 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Karenni | 8.4 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| OPM - Civilians | 8.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos | 7.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Nigeria: Islamic State | 7.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians | 7.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos | 5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| CPI-Maoist - Civilians | 5.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Costenos - Civilians | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Arakan | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Choneros - Los Lobos | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela | 4.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| AFP-Gutabara - FABB | 4.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| CPP - Civilians | 3.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Government of Venezuela - Civilians | 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| FRPI - Civilians | 3.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Mozambique: Islamic State | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Nigeria: Government | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Kokang | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Kokorat sans ras - Civilians | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Kashmir insurgents - Civilians | 2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba) | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Government of Indonesia - Civilians | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| RED-TABARA - Civilians | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| FDLR-FOCA - Civilians | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| IS - JAS | 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| FDN - PCC | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Thailand: Patani | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Aguilas - Los Lobos | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Choneros - Los Lagartos | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Lobos - Los Tiguerones | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Los Lagartos - Mafia 18 | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| South Sudan: Government | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Luba - Batwa | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Mwaghavul | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra | 9.9 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Hindus (India) - Muslims (India) | 9.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Mwaghavul , Ron | 9.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones | 9.0 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Tiv | 9.0 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| NUG - Civilians | 8.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of India - Civilians | 8.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of Mexico - Civilians | 8.3 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Choa Arab - Kotoko | 8.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Choa Arab - Musgum | 8.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria) | 7.7 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Los Ardillos - Los Rojos | 7.1 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction | 6.7 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Nigeria: Biafra | 5.5 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Philippines: Mindanao | 4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of Philippines - Civilians | 4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| IS - Naparama | 4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| India: Western South East Asia | 4.8 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Birom - Fulani | 4.1 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga | 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of Uganda - Civilians | 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Twiganeho - Civilians | 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| AFC - VDP | 3.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Atyap - Fulani | 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Karimjo - Wurukum | 3.3 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Black Axe - Eyie | 3.1 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Forces of Terwase Akwanza - Civilians | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Idoma | 2.6 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Kuteb | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| VHP - Civilians | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of Mozambique - Civilians | 2.1 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Government of Nigeria - Civilians | 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Chain Guys - Full Force | 1.4 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Benin: Government | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Kusasi - Mamprusi | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| India - Pakistan | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| India: Nagaland | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| NSCN-IM - Civilians | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| PLFI - Civilians | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Myanmar (Burma): Shan | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Los Lobos - R7 | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁵ | <0.1% |
| Hausa - Fulani | 8.0 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Irigwe | 5.7 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| ARSA - Civilians | 5.6 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Fulani - Igala | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Patani insurgents - Civilians | 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Greenlanders - NDV | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Black Axe - Maphite | 4.3 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos | 3.9 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Supporters of APC - Supporters of PDP | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Black Axe - SVC | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| IPOB - Civilians | 2.4 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Agatu - Fulani | 1.9 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| IS - Yan Gora | 1.9 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Deebam - NDV | 1.9 × 10⁻¹⁶ | <0.1% |
| Jukun - Tiv | 9.5 × 10⁻¹⁷ | <0.1% |
| Total | 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | = the headline figure, 4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ |
5 · The money method: which industries
The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.
| Industry | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities | 4.8 × 10⁻⁷ | 41% |
| Mining and quarrying | 4.4 × 10⁻⁷ | 38% |
| Accommodation and food service activities | 8.1 × 10⁻⁸ | 6.8% |
| Land transport and transport via pipelines | 3.2 × 10⁻⁸ | 2.7% |
| Manufacture of basic metals | 1.7 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.4% |
| Water transport | 1.6 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.4% |
| Forestry and logging | 1.5 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.3% |
| Warehousing and support activities for transportation | 1.5 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.2% |
| Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 9.7 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.82% |
| Air transport | 9.6 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.82% |
| Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products | 9.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.77% |
| Postal and courier activities | 5.5 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.47% |
| Construction | 4.7 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.40% |
| Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 4.6 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.39% |
| Water collection, treatment and supply | 4.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.34% |
| Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities | 4.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.34% |
| Employment activities | 3.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.25% |
| Rental and leasing activities | 2.2 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.19% |
| Fishing and aquaculture | 2.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.17% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 2.0 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.17% |
| Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment | 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.16% |
| Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities | 1.5 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.13% |
| Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products | 1.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.12% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 1.2 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.10% |
| Manufacture of other transport equipment | 1.2 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.10% |
| Real estate activities | 1.2 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities | 1.1 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products | 9.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of rubber and plastic products | 7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of paper and paper products | 6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Other personal service activities | 4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Repair of computers and personal and household goods | 4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities | 4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products | 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products | 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities | 3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities | 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Advertising and market research | 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. | 2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Repair and installation of machinery and equipment | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of electrical equipment | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Human health activities | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Activities of membership organisations | 2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities | 2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis | 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding | 1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Printing and reproduction of recorded media | 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Telecommunications | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities | 1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing | 1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities | 9.9 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations | 7.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Education | 7.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security | 5.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities | 5.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Publishing activities | 4.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation | 1.9 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Scientific research and development | 1.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | 1.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Total | 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ | = the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ |
6 · The money method: which countries
The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.
| Country | Part of the figure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Not placed | 9.0 × 10⁻⁷ | 76% |
| Mexico | 8.1 × 10⁻⁸ | 6.8% |
| United States | 6.4 × 10⁻⁸ | 5.4% |
| Brazil | 2.7 × 10⁻⁸ | 2.3% |
| Turkiye | 2.4 × 10⁻⁸ | 2.0% |
| Korea, Rep. | 1.7 × 10⁻⁸ | 1.4% |
| France | 1.2 × 10⁻⁸ | 0.99% |
| Italy | 7.2 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.61% |
| Japan | 6.9 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.59% |
| Russian Federation | 6.3 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.54% |
| Spain | 4.7 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.40% |
| Germany | 4.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.38% |
| Canada | 4.4 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.37% |
| Argentina | 3.3 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.28% |
| Australia | 2.5 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.21% |
| Austria | 2.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.18% |
| India | 2.1 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.18% |
| Portugal | 1.8 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.15% |
| Greece | 1.3 × 10⁻⁹ | 0.11% |
| Poland | 1.1 × 10⁻⁹ | <0.1% |
| Indonesia | 8.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Romania | 7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Cyprus | 6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Netherlands | 5.9 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Belgium | 5.3 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Norway | 5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Switzerland | 5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Bulgaria | 5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Hungary | 4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Czechia | 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Croatia | 3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Sweden | 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Denmark | 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Ireland | 2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Finland | 2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Lithuania | 2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Latvia | 1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Slovenia | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Slovak Republic | 1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ | <0.1% |
| Luxembourg | 6.7 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Malta | 6.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 5.3 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Estonia | 4.0 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| United Kingdom | 3.1 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| South Africa | 2.8 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| China | 1.2 × 10⁻¹¹ | <0.1% |
| Serbia | 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴ | <0.1% |
| Total | 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ | = the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻⁶ |
What this trail does not show
- Each table is a separate way of dividing the figure. “Cobalt accounts for 40%” and “one country accounts for 60%” are two views of one figure, not a path through it: the calculation stores the figure divided each way on its own, not every combination of them.
- A range belongs to the whole figure. A step’s number is only its middle estimate.
- Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.
Sources behind this figure
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HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/coffee-cup/