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The full breakdown

How the figure for Coffee, one cup is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one Italian espresso — 25 mL in the cup — as the Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano defines it. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 3.7 × 10⁻¹² per item(1.4–9.5 × 10⁻¹²)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 4.2 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.8–6.2 × 10⁻⁷)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coffee8.3 × 10⁻⁶ t4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰3.7 × 10⁻¹²100%
Total3.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 3.7 × 10⁻¹²

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Colombia2.2 × 10⁻¹²60%
Congo, Dem. Rep.8.3 × 10⁻¹³22%
Mexico4.6 × 10⁻¹³13%
United States1.1 × 10⁻¹³2.9%
Thailand3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴0.84%
Panama2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴0.63%
Sri Lanka1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴0.32%
Nigeria7.9 × 10⁻¹⁵0.22%
Total3.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 3.7 × 10⁻¹²

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence2.2 × 10⁻¹²59%
Work1.5 × 10⁻¹²41%
Total3.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 3.7 × 10⁻¹²

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.5 × 10⁻¹²41%
Colombia: Government8.9 × 10⁻¹³24%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians6.0 × 10⁻¹³16%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel4.6 × 10⁻¹³13%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government2.3 × 10⁻¹³6.3%
Nigeria: Government7.9 × 10⁻¹⁵0.22%
Total3.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 3.7 × 10⁻¹²

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying1.3 × 10⁻⁷30%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷26%
Accommodation and food service activities7.5 × 10⁻⁸18%
Land transport and transport via pipelines2.0 × 10⁻⁸4.8%
Manufacture of basic metals1.1 × 10⁻⁸2.7%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation9.6 × 10⁻⁹2.3%
Water transport9.4 × 10⁻⁹2.2%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products8.4 × 10⁻⁹2.0%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles5.8 × 10⁻⁹1.4%
Air transport5.8 × 10⁻⁹1.4%
Construction4.5 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Postal and courier activities3.8 × 10⁻⁹0.91%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities3.7 × 10⁻⁹0.88%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.67%
Employment activities2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.66%
Rental and leasing activities2.1 × 10⁻⁹0.50%
Water collection, treatment and supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.48%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.46%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Fishing and aquaculture1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.32%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Real estate activities9.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.22%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products8.6 × 10⁻¹⁰0.21%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities8.1 × 10⁻¹⁰0.19%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.15%
Manufacture of paper and paper products5.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.14%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Forestry and logging4.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Telecommunications1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities8.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment7.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations7.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education6.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities4.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities4.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use5.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.7 × 10⁻⁷64%
United States6.4 × 10⁻⁸15%
Turkiye2.3 × 10⁻⁸5.4%
France1.0 × 10⁻⁸2.4%
Mexico7.5 × 10⁻⁹1.8%
Italy7.1 × 10⁻⁹1.7%
Japan6.9 × 10⁻⁹1.7%
Spain4.6 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Russian Federation4.6 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Germany4.3 × 10⁻⁹1.0%
Argentina3.3 × 10⁻⁹0.79%
Australia2.5 × 10⁻⁹0.60%
Austria2.1 × 10⁻⁹0.50%
Portugal1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.43%
Greece1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.30%
Canada1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Poland1.0 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Romania6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.16%
Cyprus6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.15%
Netherlands5.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.14%
Norway5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Switzerland5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Bulgaria5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Belgium4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Hungary4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.10%
Czechia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg6.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia4.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total4.2 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 4.2 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/coffee-cup/

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