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The full breakdown

How the figure for Cotton fabric is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of cotton fabric. Scenario Resource-only, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 6.4 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.25–1.6 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-RES · run 2165 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 3.5 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.4–5.1 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-RES · run 2165 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Cotton0.0031 t2.1 × 10⁻⁸6.4 × 10⁻⁸100%
Total6.4 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 6.4 × 10⁻⁸

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Burkina Faso1.7 × 10⁻⁸27%
Australia9.7 × 10⁻⁹15%
Argentina8.3 × 10⁻⁹13%
United States8.1 × 10⁻⁹13%
Turkiye6.6 × 10⁻⁹10%
Colombia4.5 × 10⁻⁹7.0%
Mali2.6 × 10⁻⁹4.1%
Spain2.6 × 10⁻⁹4.0%
Sudan2.0 × 10⁻⁹3.2%
Mexico1.1 × 10⁻⁹1.7%
Greece4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.62%
Syrian Arab Republic2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.45%
Israel1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.30%
Nigeria9.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.15%
Turkmenistan6.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.10%
Afghanistan5.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Azerbaijan4.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep.4.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Uzbekistan3.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Niger2.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Thailand3.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total6.4 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 6.4 × 10⁻⁸

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work4.0 × 10⁻⁸63%
Conflict and political violence2.3 × 10⁻⁸37%
Total6.4 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 6.4 × 10⁻⁸

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.0 × 10⁻⁸63%
Burkina Faso: Government1.4 × 10⁻⁸22%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State2.9 × 10⁻⁹4.5%
Mali: Government2.2 × 10⁻⁹3.4%
Sudan: Government2.0 × 10⁻⁹3.2%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel1.1 × 10⁻⁹1.7%
Mali: Islamic State4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰0.71%
Syria: Government2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.45%
Nigeria: Government1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.16%
Afghanistan: Government5.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government2.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Niger: Islamic State1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Colombia: Government5.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Niger: Government3.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total6.4 × 10⁻⁸= the headline figure, 6.4 × 10⁻⁸

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying1.6 × 10⁻⁶46%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.4 × 10⁻⁶41%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.3 × 10⁻⁷6.4%
Manufacture of basic metals9.0 × 10⁻⁸2.6%
Real estate activities5.5 × 10⁻⁸1.6%
Forestry and logging4.9 × 10⁻⁸1.4%
Fishing and aquaculture1.4 × 10⁻⁸0.39%
Water collection, treatment and supply9.8 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products2.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Total3.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.5 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.0 × 10⁻⁶58%
Turkiye4.2 × 10⁻⁷12%
Italy2.6 × 10⁻⁷7.3%
Argentina2.2 × 10⁻⁷6.2%
Spain1.4 × 10⁻⁷3.9%
United States1.1 × 10⁻⁷3.1%
Germany7.9 × 10⁻⁸2.2%
Australia5.9 × 10⁻⁸1.7%
France5.9 × 10⁻⁸1.7%
Mexico2.0 × 10⁻⁸0.56%
Portugal1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.45%
Japan1.5 × 10⁻⁸0.42%
Poland1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.31%
Finland1.0 × 10⁻⁸0.29%
Canada9.6 × 10⁻⁹0.27%
Czechia8.1 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Switzerland7.8 × 10⁻⁹0.22%
Austria7.7 × 10⁻⁹0.22%
Netherlands6.3 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Denmark4.1 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
Hungary3.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Sweden2.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Slovenia2.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Norway2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Ireland2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Croatia1.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Slovak Republic1.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Belgium1.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Bulgaria1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Russian Federation1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Lithuania1.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Estonia1.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Romania8.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg6.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Malta8.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Cyprus6.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total3.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.5 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2165, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/cotton-fabric/

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