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The full breakdown

How the figure for Steel is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of crude steel, world route mix. Scenario Evidence-weighted, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.45–1.2 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 4.5 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.9–6.9 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite5.9 × 10⁻⁴ t1.2 × 10⁻⁹7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Iron ore0.0011 t1.7 × 10⁻¹¹1.9 × 10⁻¹¹2.5%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Mexico1.3 × 10⁻¹¹1.7%
Turkiye7.8 × 10⁻¹²1.0%
Russian Federation2.4 × 10⁻¹²0.31%
Colombia1.2 × 10⁻¹²0.16%
Australia9.8 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Mongolia9.8 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
United States9.2 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Poland6.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Canada6.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Germany2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Czechia2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Greece1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bulgaria1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Slovak Republic5.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Thailand3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Georgia3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Korea, Rep.2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Japan2.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Romania2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Uzbekistan4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Argentina2.3 × 10⁻¹⁷<0.1%
Norway1.2 × 10⁻¹⁷<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence7.4 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Work1.6 × 10⁻¹¹2.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Not placed1.6 × 10⁻¹¹2.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel1.3 × 10⁻¹¹1.7%
Total7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of basic metals2.3 × 10⁻⁶50%
Mining and quarrying2.0 × 10⁻⁶44%
Land transport and transport via pipelines7.5 × 10⁻⁸1.7%
Water transport7.4 × 10⁻⁸1.6%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation2.7 × 10⁻⁸0.61%
Air transport1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.36%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.26%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.25%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities9.8 × 10⁻⁹0.22%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment8.3 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Manufacture of other transport equipment6.4 × 10⁻⁹0.14%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.11%
Construction4.6 × 10⁻⁹0.10%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products4.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Postal and courier activities3.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles2.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Water collection, treatment and supply2.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products1.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Rental and leasing activities1.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Employment activities1.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.9.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles8.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities6.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products5.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Forestry and logging4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media9.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities8.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture8.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities7.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Telecommunications7.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations6.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities6.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation5.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education4.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities3.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities2.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development2.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total4.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.3 × 10⁻⁶96%
Russian Federation5.1 × 10⁻⁸1.1%
Mexico4.2 × 10⁻⁸0.93%
Turkiye3.0 × 10⁻⁸0.68%
United States1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.36%
Japan1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.24%
Korea, Rep.9.6 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Canada4.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
France4.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Germany3.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Italy3.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Australia2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Poland2.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Spain2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Argentina1.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Bulgaria1.6 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Austria7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Romania7.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Portugal6.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Belgium4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Estonia1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland9.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom6.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Luxembourg5.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Cyprus4.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Brazil1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
South Africa1.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
China1.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta6.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Serbia3.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total4.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 4.5 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2193, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/steel/

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