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The full breakdown

How the figure for Passenger car tyre is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of passenger car tyre. Scenario Evidence-weighted, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.57–1.3 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 6.7 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(4.6–9.8 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite9.8 × 10⁻⁵ t6.2 × 10⁻⁹6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰72%
Iron ore1.9 × 10⁻⁴ t1.3 × 10⁻⁹2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰28%
Total8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰42%
Turkiye3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰35%
Australia8.4 × 10⁻¹¹9.9%
Colombia4.9 × 10⁻¹¹5.8%
Germany1.7 × 10⁻¹¹2.0%
Poland1.5 × 10⁻¹¹1.8%
Mexico6.3 × 10⁻¹²0.74%
United States5.5 × 10⁻¹²0.65%
Sweden5.3 × 10⁻¹²0.62%
Canada4.6 × 10⁻¹²0.54%
Slovenia1.7 × 10⁻¹²0.20%
Mongolia9.5 × 10⁻¹³0.11%
Slovak Republic8.9 × 10⁻¹³0.10%
Bulgaria8.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Russian Federation4.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Czechia4.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Greece3.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Thailand3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Japan1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Romania8.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Georgia7.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Hungary7.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Uzbekistan8.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Argentina4.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Norway4.9 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Total8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰57%
Conflict and political violence3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰43%
Total8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰57%
Russia - Ukraine3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰42%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel6.3 × 10⁻¹²0.74%
Total8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products2.9 × 10⁻⁵43%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products6.2 × 10⁻⁶9.3%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.2 × 10⁻⁶6.3%
Land transport and transport via pipelines2.8 × 10⁻⁶4.2%
Mining and quarrying2.7 × 10⁻⁶4.0%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation2.0 × 10⁻⁶3.0%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.6 × 10⁻⁶2.4%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.3 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Manufacture of basic metals1.2 × 10⁻⁶1.8%
Construction1.1 × 10⁻⁶1.6%
Rental and leasing activities1.0 × 10⁻⁶1.5%
Employment activities1.0 × 10⁻⁶1.5%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities9.7 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products9.2 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities8.9 × 10⁻⁷1.3%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment8.3 × 10⁻⁷1.2%
Water transport7.2 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Accommodation and food service activities6.0 × 10⁻⁷0.90%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products5.3 × 10⁻⁷0.79%
Manufacture of paper and paper products5.2 × 10⁻⁷0.78%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products4.7 × 10⁻⁷0.70%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.7 × 10⁻⁷0.70%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities4.5 × 10⁻⁷0.67%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.4.5 × 10⁻⁷0.67%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products4.2 × 10⁻⁷0.63%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers3.7 × 10⁻⁷0.55%
Postal and courier activities3.4 × 10⁻⁷0.51%
Air transport3.3 × 10⁻⁷0.49%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.4 × 10⁻⁷0.36%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Human health activities2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.30%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.21%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.19%
Forestry and logging1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.19%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Advertising and market research1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.16%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.0 × 10⁻⁷0.15%
Manufacture of other transport equipment9.6 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding8.7 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Real estate activities7.8 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities7.0 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Activities of membership organisations6.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities6.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods5.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education5.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities4.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications4.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other personal service activities4.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation3.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities2.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Publishing activities1.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities1.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture9.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use4.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total6.7 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.7 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Turkiye1.3 × 10⁻⁵19%
Germany9.9 × 10⁻⁶15%
Not placed9.3 × 10⁻⁶14%
United States6.1 × 10⁻⁶9.1%
Spain4.7 × 10⁻⁶6.9%
Argentina4.1 × 10⁻⁶6.1%
France4.0 × 10⁻⁶5.9%
Italy3.6 × 10⁻⁶5.4%
Japan1.8 × 10⁻⁶2.7%
Poland1.5 × 10⁻⁶2.3%
Portugal1.4 × 10⁻⁶2.1%
Canada1.4 × 10⁻⁶2.1%
Netherlands7.4 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Czechia7.2 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Switzerland6.9 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Australia6.9 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Austria5.7 × 10⁻⁷0.85%
Belgium5.5 × 10⁻⁷0.82%
Hungary4.9 × 10⁻⁷0.73%
Slovenia3.1 × 10⁻⁷0.47%
Finland2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.41%
Sweden2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.40%
Denmark2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.37%
Slovak Republic1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.25%
Luxembourg1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Ireland1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.19%
Croatia9.0 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Lithuania7.9 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Estonia6.7 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Romania5.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Norway5.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Mexico4.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Greece4.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Bulgaria3.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Latvia2.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Russian Federation1.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Malta1.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Cyprus6.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
United Kingdom2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Korea, Rep.5.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Brazil3.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
South Africa2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
China1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Serbia1.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total6.7 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.7 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2193, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/car-tyre/

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