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The full breakdown

How the figure for Passenger car tyre is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of passenger car tyre. Scenario Evidence-weighted, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.79–1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 1.0 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.67–1.6 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite9.8 × 10⁻⁵ t1.2 × 10⁻⁹1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Iron ore1.9 × 10⁻⁴ t1.7 × 10⁻¹¹3.1 × 10⁻¹²2.5%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Mexico2.1 × 10⁻¹²1.7%
Turkiye1.3 × 10⁻¹²1.0%
Russian Federation3.9 × 10⁻¹³0.31%
Colombia2.0 × 10⁻¹³0.16%
Australia1.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Mongolia1.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
United States1.5 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Poland1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Canada1.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Germany4.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Czechia3.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Greece2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Bulgaria1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Slovak Republic9.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Thailand6.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Georgia5.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Korea, Rep.4.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Japan4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Romania3.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Uzbekistan7.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Argentina3.8 × 10⁻¹⁸<0.1%
Norway2.0 × 10⁻¹⁸<0.1%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Work2.6 × 10⁻¹²2.1%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Not placed2.6 × 10⁻¹²2.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel2.1 × 10⁻¹²1.7%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying6.2 × 10⁻⁷61%
Manufacture of basic metals7.0 × 10⁻⁸6.8%
Land transport and transport via pipelines6.3 × 10⁻⁸6.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products5.2 × 10⁻⁸5.0%
Water transport4.5 × 10⁻⁸4.4%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities4.1 × 10⁻⁸4.0%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation3.0 × 10⁻⁸2.9%
Air transport1.8 × 10⁻⁸1.8%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products1.4 × 10⁻⁸1.3%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.4 × 10⁻⁸1.3%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment5.8 × 10⁻⁹0.57%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.49%
Postal and courier activities4.5 × 10⁻⁹0.44%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products4.3 × 10⁻⁹0.42%
Construction4.0 × 10⁻⁹0.39%
Manufacture of other transport equipment3.3 × 10⁻⁹0.32%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities2.7 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities2.5 × 10⁻⁹0.24%
Water collection, treatment and supply2.4 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Employment activities1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.19%
Rental and leasing activities1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.14%
Forestry and logging1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
Manufacture of paper and paper products1.0 × 10⁻⁹0.10%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products9.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities9.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles9.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.8.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities7.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products7.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers5.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Telecommunications1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Education6.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities5.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security4.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities4.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities4.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development2.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use3.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total1.0 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 1.0 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed8.7 × 10⁻⁷85%
United States2.9 × 10⁻⁸2.9%
Turkiye2.6 × 10⁻⁸2.5%
Russian Federation1.9 × 10⁻⁸1.8%
Mexico1.4 × 10⁻⁸1.4%
Korea, Rep.1.4 × 10⁻⁸1.4%
Japan8.9 × 10⁻⁹0.86%
France6.6 × 10⁻⁹0.65%
Italy5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.50%
Germany4.9 × 10⁻⁹0.48%
Poland3.4 × 10⁻⁹0.34%
Argentina3.3 × 10⁻⁹0.32%
Canada3.2 × 10⁻⁹0.31%
Spain3.1 × 10⁻⁹0.30%
Portugal1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.14%
Romania1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.13%
Czechia1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
Australia1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.11%
Bulgaria1.0 × 10⁻⁹0.10%
Austria9.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Belgium5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Cyprus9.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia9.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom6.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Brazil1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
South Africa8.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
China6.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Serbia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total1.0 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 1.0 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2193, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/car-tyre/

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