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The full breakdown

How the figure for Passenger car tyre is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of passenger car tyre. Scenario Arms and resources, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ per item(0.78–2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰)LOWS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 7.5 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.49–1.1 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coal and lignite9.8 × 10⁻⁵ t1.2 × 10⁻⁹1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Iron ore1.9 × 10⁻⁴ t1.7 × 10⁻¹¹3.1 × 10⁻¹²2.5%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Mexico2.1 × 10⁻¹²1.7%
Turkiye1.3 × 10⁻¹²1.0%
Russian Federation3.9 × 10⁻¹³0.31%
Colombia2.0 × 10⁻¹³0.16%
Australia1.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
Mongolia1.6 × 10⁻¹³0.13%
United States1.5 × 10⁻¹³0.12%
Poland1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Canada1.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Germany4.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Czechia3.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Greece2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Bulgaria1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Slovak Republic9.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Thailand6.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Georgia5.7 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Korea, Rep.4.6 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Japan4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Romania3.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Uzbekistan7.3 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Argentina3.8 × 10⁻¹⁸<0.1%
Norway2.0 × 10⁻¹⁸<0.1%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰98%
Work2.6 × 10⁻¹²2.1%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰96%
Not placed2.6 × 10⁻¹²2.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel2.1 × 10⁻¹²1.7%
Total1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰= the headline figure, 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying6.2 × 10⁻⁷83%
Manufacture of basic metals6.8 × 10⁻⁸9.1%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities4.1 × 10⁻⁸5.4%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.4 × 10⁻⁹0.59%
Manufacture of other transport equipment3.1 × 10⁻⁹0.42%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.38%
Water collection, treatment and supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Forestry and logging1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Real estate activities3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed7.2 × 10⁻⁷96%
Mexico8.8 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Russian Federation7.8 × 10⁻⁹1.0%
United States4.0 × 10⁻⁹0.54%
Turkiye1.6 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Germany8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Canada7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Japan6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Korea, Rep.6.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Poland6.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Italy5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Austria3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Spain3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Argentina2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Australia2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
France2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Romania1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bulgaria1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary8.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Finland8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom6.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Portugal6.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Sweden5.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Lithuania4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Switzerland4.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Luxembourg4.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Netherlands3.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Denmark3.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Greece2.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Norway2.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Croatia2.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovenia1.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Brazil1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
South Africa8.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Latvia6.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
China6.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Belgium5.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Malta2.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Serbia3.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2179, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/car-tyre/

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