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The full breakdown

How the figure for Cotton fabric is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of cotton fabric. Scenario Conservative, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 1.7 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.67–4.1 × 10⁻⁹)LOWS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 5.0 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(3.3–7.5 × 10⁻⁷)MEDIUMS-CONS · run 2151 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Cotton0.0031 t5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰1.7 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total1.7 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 1.7 × 10⁻⁹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Burkina Faso6.0 × 10⁻¹⁰35%
Sudan3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰19%
United States2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰14%
Mexico1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰11%
Mali9.3 × 10⁻¹¹5.4%
Australia6.9 × 10⁻¹¹4.1%
Syrian Arab Republic4.9 × 10⁻¹¹2.9%
Turkiye4.4 × 10⁻¹¹2.6%
Argentina1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.99%
Uzbekistan1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.93%
Turkmenistan1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.88%
Nigeria1.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.82%
Afghanistan1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.74%
Congo, Dem. Rep.5.6 × 10⁻¹²0.33%
Spain5.0 × 10⁻¹²0.29%
Greece4.3 × 10⁻¹²0.25%
Colombia3.5 × 10⁻¹²0.20%
Azerbaijan2.4 × 10⁻¹²0.14%
Niger1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Israel9.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Thailand1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total1.7 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 1.7 × 10⁻⁹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence1.3 × 10⁻⁹76%
Work4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰24%
Total1.7 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 1.7 × 10⁻⁹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Burkina Faso: Government5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰29%
Not placed4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰24%
Sudan: Government3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰19%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰11%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰6.0%
Mali: Government7.7 × 10⁻¹¹4.5%
Syria: Government4.9 × 10⁻¹¹2.9%
Mali: Islamic State1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.93%
Nigeria: Government1.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.84%
Afghanistan: Government1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.74%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians4.0 × 10⁻¹²0.24%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Colombia: Government1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Niger: Islamic State6.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Niger: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total1.7 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 1.7 × 10⁻⁹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying2.3 × 10⁻⁷47%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities6.8 × 10⁻⁸14%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products5.2 × 10⁻⁸10%
Land transport and transport via pipelines3.6 × 10⁻⁸7.2%
Water transport2.2 × 10⁻⁸4.5%
Manufacture of basic metals2.0 × 10⁻⁸4.1%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.6 × 10⁻⁸3.3%
Air transport1.1 × 10⁻⁸2.2%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles8.8 × 10⁻⁹1.8%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles3.9 × 10⁻⁹0.79%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products3.4 × 10⁻⁹0.68%
Postal and courier activities2.8 × 10⁻⁹0.57%
Construction2.3 × 10⁻⁹0.46%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.37%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.7 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply1.7 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.31%
Employment activities9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰0.18%
Rental and leasing activities8.6 × 10⁻¹⁰0.17%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products8.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.17%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products8.3 × 10⁻¹⁰0.17%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities7.6 × 10⁻¹⁰0.15%
Manufacture of paper and paper products6.5 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities5.3 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Forestry and logging3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods9.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment9.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture8.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Other personal service activities8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations8.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations7.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Telecommunications4.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education3.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities3.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities3.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities2.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use3.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Total5.0 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 5.0 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.1 × 10⁻⁷83%
Turkiye4.2 × 10⁻⁸8.5%
United States9.5 × 10⁻⁹1.9%
Italy5.8 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Russian Federation5.8 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Mexico3.6 × 10⁻⁹0.72%
France3.4 × 10⁻⁹0.69%
Japan2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.45%
Argentina1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.38%
Spain1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.36%
Portugal1.7 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Germany1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Romania8.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.17%
Poland6.5 × 10⁻¹⁰0.13%
Canada6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Bulgaria5.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Australia5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Austria3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Belgium2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia9.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Ireland8.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovak Republic8.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Luxembourg4.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Cyprus3.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta6.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total5.0 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 5.0 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2151, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/cotton-fabric/

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