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The full breakdown

How the figure for Coffee, one cup is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one Italian espresso — 25 mL in the cup — as the Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano defines it. Scenario Arms and resources, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 5.7 × 10⁻¹² per item(0.23–1.4 × 10⁻¹¹)LOWS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 3.9 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.6–6.0 × 10⁻⁷)MEDIUMS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coffee8.3 × 10⁻⁶ t6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰5.7 × 10⁻¹²100%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Colombia2.6 × 10⁻¹²45%
Congo, Dem. Rep.2.1 × 10⁻¹²36%
Mexico9.0 × 10⁻¹³16%
United States1.1 × 10⁻¹³1.9%
Thailand3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴0.55%
Panama2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴0.41%
Nigeria1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴0.32%
Sri Lanka1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴0.20%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence4.2 × 10⁻¹²74%
Work1.5 × 10⁻¹²26%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.5 × 10⁻¹²26%
Colombia: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹²21%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹²19%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government9.7 × 10⁻¹³17%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel9.0 × 10⁻¹³16%
Nigeria: Government1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴0.32%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying2.1 × 10⁻⁷52%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.6 × 10⁻⁷40%
Manufacture of basic metals1.7 × 10⁻⁸4.2%
Water collection, treatment and supply3.6 × 10⁻⁹0.92%
Fishing and aquaculture2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.52%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.50%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.36%
Real estate activities1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.30%
Manufacture of other transport equipment1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security9.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.25%
Forestry and logging6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.16%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Total3.9 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 3.9 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed3.5 × 10⁻⁷89%
Mexico1.4 × 10⁻⁸3.6%
United States8.3 × 10⁻⁹2.1%
Korea, Rep.4.5 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Russian Federation3.0 × 10⁻⁹0.76%
Italy2.4 × 10⁻⁹0.60%
Japan1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.49%
Austria1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.35%
Spain1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.34%
Turkiye1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.32%
Argentina1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.29%
Germany1.0 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Australia6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰0.18%
France6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.17%
Portugal2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Canada2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Poland2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Romania2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bulgaria1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden9.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Lithuania7.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Greece6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovak Republic6.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom3.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Belgium2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Slovenia2.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Luxembourg2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Netherlands2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Latvia8.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Brazil4.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
South Africa4.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
China2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Serbia1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total3.9 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 3.9 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2179, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/coffee-cup/

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