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The full breakdown

How the figure for Coffee, one cup is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one Italian espresso — 25 mL in the cup — as the Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano defines it. Scenario Evidence-weighted, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 5.7 × 10⁻¹² per item(0.21–1.5 × 10⁻¹¹)LOWS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 6.0 × 10⁻⁷ per €1,000 spent in its industry(3.9–9.2 × 10⁻⁷)MEDIUMS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Coffee8.3 × 10⁻⁶ t6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰5.7 × 10⁻¹²100%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Colombia2.6 × 10⁻¹²45%
Congo, Dem. Rep.2.1 × 10⁻¹²36%
Mexico9.0 × 10⁻¹³16%
United States1.1 × 10⁻¹³1.9%
Thailand3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴0.55%
Panama2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴0.41%
Nigeria1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴0.32%
Sri Lanka1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴0.20%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence4.2 × 10⁻¹²74%
Work1.5 × 10⁻¹²26%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.5 × 10⁻¹²26%
Colombia: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹²21%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹²19%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government9.7 × 10⁻¹³17%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel9.0 × 10⁻¹³16%
Nigeria: Government1.8 × 10⁻¹⁴0.32%
Total5.7 × 10⁻¹²= the headline figure, 5.7 × 10⁻¹²

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Mining and quarrying2.1 × 10⁻⁷34%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.6 × 10⁻⁷26%
Accommodation and food service activities8.1 × 10⁻⁸13%
Land transport and transport via pipelines3.2 × 10⁻⁸5.2%
Manufacture of basic metals1.7 × 10⁻⁸2.8%
Water transport1.6 × 10⁻⁸2.7%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.5 × 10⁻⁸2.4%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles9.7 × 10⁻⁹1.6%
Air transport9.6 × 10⁻⁹1.6%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products9.1 × 10⁻⁹1.5%
Postal and courier activities5.5 × 10⁻⁹0.91%
Construction4.7 × 10⁻⁹0.78%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.6 × 10⁻⁹0.77%
Water collection, treatment and supply4.1 × 10⁻⁹0.67%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities4.0 × 10⁻⁹0.67%
Employment activities3.0 × 10⁻⁹0.49%
Rental and leasing activities2.2 × 10⁻⁹0.37%
Fishing and aquaculture2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.34%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹0.33%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment1.9 × 10⁻⁹0.32%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities1.5 × 10⁻⁹0.25%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.4 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.20%
Manufacture of other transport equipment1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.20%
Real estate activities1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.19%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products9.7 × 10⁻¹⁰0.16%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰0.12%
Forestry and logging6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Manufacture of paper and paper products6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Other personal service activities4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Telecommunications1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities9.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations7.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education7.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security5.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities5.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total6.0 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 6.0 × 10⁻⁷

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed4.2 × 10⁻⁷70%
United States6.4 × 10⁻⁸11%
Turkiye2.3 × 10⁻⁸3.8%
Mexico1.7 × 10⁻⁸2.8%
Korea, Rep.1.7 × 10⁻⁸2.7%
France1.0 × 10⁻⁸1.7%
Italy7.1 × 10⁻⁹1.2%
Japan6.9 × 10⁻⁹1.1%
Russian Federation5.8 × 10⁻⁹0.97%
Spain4.7 × 10⁻⁹0.78%
Germany4.4 × 10⁻⁹0.73%
Argentina3.3 × 10⁻⁹0.55%
Australia2.5 × 10⁻⁹0.42%
Austria2.1 × 10⁻⁹0.35%
Portugal1.8 × 10⁻⁹0.30%
Greece1.3 × 10⁻⁹0.21%
Canada1.2 × 10⁻⁹0.20%
Poland1.1 × 10⁻⁹0.18%
Romania6.8 × 10⁻¹⁰0.11%
Cyprus6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰0.10%
Netherlands5.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Norway5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bulgaria5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Belgium4.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Hungary4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ireland2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Denmark2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg6.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Estonia4.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom3.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Brazil4.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
South Africa4.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
China2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Serbia1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total6.0 × 10⁻⁷= the headline figure, 6.0 × 10⁻⁷

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2193, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/coffee-cup/

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