The full breakdown

How the figure for Cotton yarn is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of spun cotton yarn. Scenario Evidence-weighted, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 6.2 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.24–1.6 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 5.2 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(3.6–7.8 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-EVID · run 2193 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
Material	Per item	Deaths per kg	Part of the figure	Share
Cotton	0.0030 t	2.1 × 10⁻⁸	6.2 × 10⁻⁸	100%
Total			6.2 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 6.2 × 10⁻⁸

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Burkina Faso	1.7 × 10⁻⁸	27%
Australia	9.4 × 10⁻⁹	15%
Argentina	8.1 × 10⁻⁹	13%
United States	7.9 × 10⁻⁹	13%
Turkiye	6.5 × 10⁻⁹	10%
Colombia	4.3 × 10⁻⁹	7.0%
Mali	2.6 × 10⁻⁹	4.1%
Spain	2.5 × 10⁻⁹	4.0%
Sudan	2.0 × 10⁻⁹	3.2%
Mexico	1.1 × 10⁻⁹	1.7%
Greece	3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.62%
Syrian Arab Republic	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.45%
Israel	1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.30%
Nigeria	9.5 × 10⁻¹¹	0.15%
Turkmenistan	6.3 × 10⁻¹¹	0.10%
Afghanistan	5.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Azerbaijan	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep.	4.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Uzbekistan	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Niger	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Thailand	3.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Total	6.2 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 6.2 × 10⁻⁸

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harm	Part of the figure	Share
Work	3.9 × 10⁻⁸	63%
Conflict and political violence	2.3 × 10⁻⁸	37%
Total	6.2 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 6.2 × 10⁻⁸

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
War	Part of the figure	Share
Not placed	3.9 × 10⁻⁸	63%
Burkina Faso: Government	1.4 × 10⁻⁸	22%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State	2.8 × 10⁻⁹	4.5%
Mali: Government	2.1 × 10⁻⁹	3.4%
Sudan: Government	2.0 × 10⁻⁹	3.2%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel	1.1 × 10⁻⁹	1.7%
Mali: Islamic State	4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.71%
Syria: Government	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.45%
Nigeria: Government	9.8 × 10⁻¹¹	0.16%
Afghanistan: Government	5.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians	2.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Niger: Islamic State	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Colombia: Government	5.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Niger: Government	3.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Total	6.2 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 6.2 × 10⁻⁸

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
Industry	Part of the figure	Share
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products	3.0 × 10⁻⁵	58%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	2.9 × 10⁻⁶	5.5%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products	1.8 × 10⁻⁶	3.4%
Land transport and transport via pipelines	1.6 × 10⁻⁶	3.1%
Mining and quarrying	1.6 × 10⁻⁶	3.1%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities	1.4 × 10⁻⁶	2.8%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation	1.1 × 10⁻⁶	2.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities	1.1 × 10⁻⁶	2.1%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	1.1 × 10⁻⁶	2.0%
Rental and leasing activities	5.6 × 10⁻⁷	1.1%
Employment activities	5.4 × 10⁻⁷	1.0%
Construction	5.3 × 10⁻⁷	1.0%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products	5.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.98%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products	5.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.97%
Accommodation and food service activities	5.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.96%
Water transport	4.9 × 10⁻⁷	0.94%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products	4.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.81%
Manufacture of basic metals	4.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.79%
Manufacture of paper and paper products	3.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.71%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities	3.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.69%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	2.9 × 10⁻⁷	0.56%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	2.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.51%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	2.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.47%
Air transport	2.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.45%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	2.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.43%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.	2.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.38%
Postal and courier activities	1.9 × 10⁻⁷	0.36%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment	1.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.31%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products	1.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.29%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	1.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.29%
Manufacture of electrical equipment	1.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.26%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	1.2 × 10⁻⁷	0.24%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	1.2 × 10⁻⁷	0.23%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing	1.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.21%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	9.8 × 10⁻⁸	0.19%
Water collection, treatment and supply	9.7 × 10⁻⁸	0.19%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities	9.4 × 10⁻⁸	0.18%
Human health activities	9.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.18%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media	8.4 × 10⁻⁸	0.16%
Advertising and market research	8.0 × 10⁻⁸	0.15%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities	8.0 × 10⁻⁸	0.15%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials	8.0 × 10⁻⁸	0.15%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	7.1 × 10⁻⁸	0.14%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding	6.6 × 10⁻⁸	0.13%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities	5.7 × 10⁻⁸	0.11%
Manufacture of other transport equipment	5.6 × 10⁻⁸	0.11%
Real estate activities	5.5 × 10⁻⁸	0.11%
Forestry and logging	4.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations	4.4 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods	3.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities	3.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	3.5 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Other personal service activities	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Education	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Telecommunications	3.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation	2.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security	1.7 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities	1.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture	1.4 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Scientific research and development	1.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities	1.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Publishing activities	9.9 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Total	5.2 × 10⁻⁵	= the headline figure, 5.2 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Turkiye	2.2 × 10⁻⁵	42%
Not placed	1.1 × 10⁻⁵	20%
Italy	4.1 × 10⁻⁶	7.8%
Spain	2.7 × 10⁻⁶	5.1%
Germany	2.4 × 10⁻⁶	4.6%
France	2.1 × 10⁻⁶	4.0%
Argentina	2.1 × 10⁻⁶	4.0%
Portugal	1.6 × 10⁻⁶	3.1%
United States	1.6 × 10⁻⁶	3.0%
Japan	4.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.86%
Poland	3.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.57%
Switzerland	2.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.53%
Australia	2.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.53%
Canada	2.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.50%
Netherlands	2.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.49%
Belgium	2.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.39%
Austria	1.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.32%
Czechia	1.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.28%
Denmark	1.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.20%
Hungary	9.6 × 10⁻⁸	0.18%
Finland	8.8 × 10⁻⁸	0.17%
Slovenia	8.4 × 10⁻⁸	0.16%
Sweden	8.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.16%
Croatia	5.8 × 10⁻⁸	0.11%
Ireland	5.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.10%
Lithuania	3.7 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Estonia	3.7 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Slovak Republic	3.5 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Romania	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Mexico	2.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Luxembourg	2.5 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Norway	2.5 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Greece	2.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Bulgaria	2.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Latvia	1.3 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Russian Federation	7.3 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Malta	4.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Cyprus	2.7 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Korea, Rep.	5.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
United Kingdom	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
China	2.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Brazil	1.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
South Africa	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Serbia	3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Total	5.2 × 10⁻⁵	= the headline figure, 5.2 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Each table is a separate way of dividing the figure. “Cobalt accounts for 40%” and “one country accounts for 60%” are two views of one figure, not a path through it: the calculation stores the figure divided each way on its own, not every combination of them.
A range belongs to the whole figure. A step’s number is only its middle estimate.
Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.

Sources behind this figure

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HumanToll 2026, run 2193, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/cotton-yarn/

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