The full breakdown

How the figure for Cocoa mass is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of cocoa mass (cocoa paste, cocoa liquor). Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 4.1 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.16–1.0 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.3–5.2 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
Material	Per item	Deaths per kg	Part of the figure	Share
Cocoa	0.0013 t	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	4.1 × 10⁻⁸	100%
Total			4.1 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 4.1 × 10⁻⁸

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Cameroon	1.4 × 10⁻⁸	35%
Nigeria	1.1 × 10⁻⁸	27%
Ecuador	6.2 × 10⁻⁹	15%
Congo, Dem. Rep.	3.3 × 10⁻⁹	8.1%
Mexico	1.4 × 10⁻⁹	3.4%
Brazil	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	3.0%
Haiti	8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	2.1%
Colombia	7.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.9%
Togo	7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.7%
Ghana	3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.79%
Uganda	1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.45%
Papua New Guinea	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.38%
Indonesia	6.7 × 10⁻¹¹	0.16%
Philippines	3.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Honduras	3.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Peru	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Guatemala	1.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Central African Republic	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
India	1.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Venezuela, RB	6.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Sri Lanka	6.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Panama	3.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Costa Rica	1.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Thailand	7.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Bolivia	2.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Total	4.1 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 4.1 × 10⁻⁸

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harm	Part of the figure	Share
Conflict and political violence	4.0 × 10⁻⁸	99%
Work	4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.1%
Total	4.1 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 4.1 × 10⁻⁸

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
War	Part of the figure	Share
Cameroon: Ambazonia	4.3 × 10⁻⁹	11%
Nigeria: Islamic State	4.0 × 10⁻⁹	9.8%
JAS - Civilians	2.6 × 10⁻⁹	6.3%
Cameroon: Government	2.5 × 10⁻⁹	6.2%
Ambazonia insurgents - Civilians	2.3 × 10⁻⁹	5.7%
IS - Civilians	2.2 × 10⁻⁹	5.4%
Los Choneros - Los Lobos	2.0 × 10⁻⁹	4.9%
Nigeria: Government	1.5 × 10⁻⁹	3.7%
Cameroon: Islamic State	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	2.9%
IS - JAS	9.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	2.4%
Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones	8.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	2.0%
Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings	6.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.7%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos	6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.5%
Government of Cameroon - Civilians	5.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.4%
Fulani - Mwaghavul	5.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.4%
Los Choneros - Los Lagartos	5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.4%
Los Lobos - Los Tiguerones	5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.3%
Los Lagartos - Mafia 18	5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.3%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel	5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.3%
URDPC - Civilians	5.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.3%
Fulani - Mwaghavul , Ron	5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.3%
Fulani - Tiv	4.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.2%
Not placed	4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.1%
JNIM - Civilians	4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.1%
Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria)	4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.0%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones	4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	1.0%
Comando Vermelho - PCC	3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.88%
Lengola - Mbole	3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.85%
Comités locaux de vigilance - JAS	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.82%
Kusasi - Mamprusi	3.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.79%
Nigeria: Biafra	3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.74%
Togo: Government	2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.65%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians	2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.60%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government	2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.59%
DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State	2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.59%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel	2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.57%
Birom - Fulani	2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.55%
Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel	2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.52%
Atyap - Fulani	1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.47%
Karimjo - Wurukum	1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.44%
Black Axe - Eyie	1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.42%
Government of Haiti - Civilians	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.39%
Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.39%
Ambulin, Lungupin, Nenei, Sau, Sau Walep, Yandamau, Yopo - Kaekin, Lanzerakin, Lyona, Mupapalu, Murap, Palinau, Sakaikin, Sikin, Wapukin	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.37%
Forces of Terwase Akwanza - Civilians	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.37%
M23 - VDP	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.37%
G9 - G-Pep	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.36%
Mobondo - Civilians	1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.35%
Fulani - Idoma	1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.34%
Terre Noire - Civilians	1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.34%
5 Segond, Taliban - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.33%
Fulani - Kuteb	1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.32%
Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho	1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.32%
Grand Ravine - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.31%
Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.29%
M23 - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.28%
Rwanda: Government	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.25%
Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians	9.4 × 10⁻¹¹	0.23%
G-Pep - Civilians	9.4 × 10⁻¹¹	0.23%
Government of Nigeria - Civilians	9.4 × 10⁻¹¹	0.23%
EGC - Civilians	9.3 × 10⁻¹¹	0.23%
Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos	9.1 × 10⁻¹¹	0.22%
Bonde dos 40 - PCC	8.3 × 10⁻¹¹	0.20%
Chain Guys - Full Force	7.8 × 10⁻¹¹	0.19%
Comando Vermelho - GDE	6.3 × 10⁻¹¹	0.15%
Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos	6.3 × 10⁻¹¹	0.15%
GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime	6.2 × 10⁻¹¹	0.15%
PCC - Sindicato do Crime	5.5 × 10⁻¹¹	0.13%
Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá	5.4 × 10⁻¹¹	0.13%
Colombia: Government	5.2 × 10⁻¹¹	0.13%
Uganda: Islamic State	5.1 × 10⁻¹¹	0.13%
FARC-EMC - Civilians	4.9 × 10⁻¹¹	0.12%
URDPC - Zaire self-defense group	4.8 × 10⁻¹¹	0.12%
Los Lobos - R7	4.6 × 10⁻¹¹	0.11%
Comando Vermelho - Civilians	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	0.11%
Hausa - Fulani	4.4 × 10⁻¹¹	0.11%
Zaire self-defense group - Civilians	4.2 × 10⁻¹¹	0.10%
Indonesia: West Papua	4.2 × 10⁻¹¹	0.10%
VDP - Civilians	4.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG	4.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
M18 - MS-13	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Gran Grif - Civilians	3.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
400 Mawozo - Civilians	3.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho	3.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho	3.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FARC-EMC - ELN	3.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC	3.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Fulani - Irigwe	3.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians	3.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Fulani - Igala	2.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos	2.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Greenlanders - NDV	2.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Black Axe - Maphite	2.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Philippines: Government	2.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Holanda	2.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos	2.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Choa Arab - Kotoko	2.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Choa Arab - Musgum	2.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
AFC - Civilians	2.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
ELN - Civilians	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
OPM - Civilians	2.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Peru: Government	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Massa	1.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nova Okaida - PCC	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Los Costenos - Los Pepes	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Katiara	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Civilians	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Supporters of APC - Supporters of PDP	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
EGC - ELN	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Black Axe - SVC	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
IPOB - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Philippines: Islamic State	1.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Agatu - Fulani	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
IS - Yan Gora	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Deebam - NDV	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Central African Republic: Government	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
PCC - Civilians	9.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
M18 - Civilians	8.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco	8.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - FABB	7.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada	6.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FRPI - Civilians	6.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Brazil - Civilians	6.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Colombia - Civilians	5.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara	5.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Jukun - Tiv	5.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCM	5.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Indonesia - Civilians	5.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Venezuela - Civilians	5.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Burundi: Government	4.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
MS-13 - Civilians	4.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba)	4.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
AAKG - CPC	4.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Kokorat sans ras - Civilians	3.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos	3.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FDLR-FOCA - Civilians	3.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI	3.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
India: Kashmir	3.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians	3.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra	2.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Kuki - Meitei	2.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
India: Government	2.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Mexico - Civilians	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians	2.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
CPP - Civilians	2.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Rojos	2.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
South Sudan: Government	2.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Luba - Batwa	2.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Forces of Tony Peña - Los Hondureños	1.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians	1.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Central African Republic: Logone	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Costenos - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
CPI-Maoist - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
CPC - Civilians	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel	7.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation	7.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Uganda - Civilians	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Burundi - Civilians	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Twiganeho - Civilians	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
AFC - VDP	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Kashmir insurgents - Civilians	5.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho	5.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
FDN - PCC	5.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Central African Republic - Civilians	3.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Philippines: Mindanao	2.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Philippines - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Hindus (India) - Muslims (India)	2.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of India - Civilians	2.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos	1.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
India: Western South East Asia	1.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Farmers (CAR) - Herders (CAR)	8.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
AAKG - Civilians	8.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Government	5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
VHP - Civilians	5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Thailand: Patani	3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
India - Pakistan	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
India: Nagaland	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
NSCN-IM - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
PLFI - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Patani insurgents - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁵	<0.1%
Total	4.1 × 10⁻⁸	= the headline figure, 4.1 × 10⁻⁸

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
Industry	Part of the figure	Share
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities	2.3 × 10⁻⁶	69%
Mining and quarrying	7.0 × 10⁻⁷	21%
Land transport and transport via pipelines	7.0 × 10⁻⁸	2.0%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products	6.0 × 10⁻⁸	1.8%
Water transport	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.98%
Forestry and logging	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.98%
Manufacture of basic metals	3.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.96%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation	2.8 × 10⁻⁸	0.82%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	1.8 × 10⁻⁸	0.53%
Air transport	1.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.39%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	7.8 × 10⁻⁹	0.23%
Postal and courier activities	5.1 × 10⁻⁹	0.15%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	4.8 × 10⁻⁹	0.14%
Water collection, treatment and supply	4.3 × 10⁻⁹	0.13%
Construction	3.6 × 10⁻⁹	0.11%
Fishing and aquaculture	3.1 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment	3.0 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products	2.5 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities	2.5 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products	2.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	2.0 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Rental and leasing activities	1.7 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Employment activities	1.5 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	1.5 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products	1.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products	1.3 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities	5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products	5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.	5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment	3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Human health activities	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Advertising and market research	3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products	3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Real estate activities	2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment	2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials	2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities	2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities	2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods	2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities	1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media	1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding	1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Other personal service activities	1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Telecommunications	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities	8.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Education	6.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities	6.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security	4.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Publishing activities	4.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use	2.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Scientific research and development	1.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Total	3.4 × 10⁻⁶	= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Not placed	2.6 × 10⁻⁶	77%
Mexico	3.9 × 10⁻⁷	12%
Brazil	1.5 × 10⁻⁷	4.3%
United States	6.8 × 10⁻⁸	2.0%
Russian Federation	2.9 × 10⁻⁸	0.85%
Turkiye	2.6 × 10⁻⁸	0.77%
France	1.6 × 10⁻⁸	0.47%
India	1.2 × 10⁻⁸	0.35%
Canada	1.2 × 10⁻⁸	0.34%
Korea, Rep.	1.1 × 10⁻⁸	0.31%
Germany	9.7 × 10⁻⁹	0.28%
Spain	9.3 × 10⁻⁹	0.27%
Italy	9.0 × 10⁻⁹	0.26%
Japan	8.9 × 10⁻⁹	0.26%
Argentina	8.6 × 10⁻⁹	0.25%
Austria	5.5 × 10⁻⁹	0.16%
Australia	3.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Poland	3.3 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Romania	2.9 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Indonesia	2.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Portugal	2.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Ireland	2.1 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Denmark	1.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Bulgaria	1.4 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Norway	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Hungary	1.2 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Belgium	9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Switzerland	9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Lithuania	8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Czechia	8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Finland	7.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Greece	7.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Netherlands	6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Sweden	6.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Croatia	5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Latvia	3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Cyprus	3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Slovak Republic	3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Luxembourg	2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Slovenia	1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
South Africa	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Estonia	8.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Saudi Arabia	6.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
United Kingdom	4.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Malta	4.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
China	3.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Serbia	2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Total	3.4 × 10⁻⁶	= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Each table is a separate way of dividing the figure. “Cobalt accounts for 40%” and “one country accounts for 60%” are two views of one figure, not a path through it: the calculation stores the figure divided each way on its own, not every combination of them.
A range belongs to the whole figure. A step’s number is only its middle estimate.
Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.

Sources behind this figure

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HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/cocoa-mass/

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