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The full breakdown

How the figure for Refined sugar is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of refined white sugar. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 6.1 × 10⁻⁹ per item(0.24–1.5 × 10⁻⁸)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(2.2–5.2 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Sugar0.0072 t8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰6.1 × 10⁻⁹100%
Total6.1 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 6.1 × 10⁻⁹

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Ukraine2.8 × 10⁻⁹46%
Mexico7.8 × 10⁻¹⁰13%
Sudan5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰9.0%
Brazil3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰5.8%
Turkiye2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰3.3%
Myanmar1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰2.9%
Haiti1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰2.4%
Pakistan1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰2.3%
Thailand1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰1.8%
Colombia9.2 × 10⁻¹¹1.5%
France7.7 × 10⁻¹¹1.3%
Burkina Faso6.4 × 10⁻¹¹1.0%
United States6.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.99%
Somalia, Fed. Rep.5.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.88%
Congo, Dem. Rep.5.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.87%
India5.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.84%
Germany3.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.56%
Japan3.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.53%
Mali2.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.46%
Ethiopia2.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.42%
Philippines2.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.39%
Russian Federation1.9 × 10⁻¹¹0.30%
Niger1.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.30%
Kenya1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.28%
Mauritius1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.28%
Honduras1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.27%
Ecuador1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.27%
Nigeria1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.22%
Cameroon1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.21%
Guatemala9.9 × 10⁻¹²0.16%
Uganda7.9 × 10⁻¹²0.13%
Argentina7.4 × 10⁻¹²0.12%
Austria7.2 × 10⁻¹²0.12%
Mozambique6.9 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Spain6.8 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Poland6.5 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Australia4.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Central African Republic4.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Belgium4.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Eswatini4.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Belarus3.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Italy3.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Burundi3.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Panama3.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Czechia3.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Netherlands1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Costa Rica1.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Moldova1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Lithuania1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Syrian Arab Republic1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Switzerland1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Indonesia1.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Slovak Republic1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Sri Lanka1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Hungary1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Croatia1.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Denmark8.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Afghanistan8.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Sweden7.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Chad6.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Iran, Islamic Rep.5.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Canada4.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Romania4.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Azerbaijan4.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Peru3.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Papua New Guinea3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Egypt, Arab Rep.2.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Benin2.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Lebanon2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Venezuela, RB2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
South Africa1.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Finland1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Armenia1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Morocco1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bolivia1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Bangladesh1.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Turkmenistan2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Ghana2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iraq2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Slovenia1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Tunisia1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
China8.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Uzbekistan5.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Luxembourg2.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Greece1.1 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Total6.1 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 6.1 × 10⁻⁹

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Conflict and political violence5.5 × 10⁻⁹90%
Work6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰10%
Total6.1 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 6.1 × 10⁻⁹

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Russia - Ukraine2.8 × 10⁻⁹46%
Not placed6.4 × 10⁻¹⁰10%
Sudan: Government3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰5.8%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰5.1%
RSF - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰2.4%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰2.2%
Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰2.0%
Pakistan: Government1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰1.7%
Comando Vermelho - PCC1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰1.7%
Myanmar (Burma): Government9.7 × 10⁻¹¹1.6%
Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation9.0 × 10⁻¹¹1.5%
Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos5.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.85%
Somalia: Government4.9 × 10⁻¹¹0.81%
IS - Civilians3.9 × 10⁻¹¹0.64%
Burkina Faso: Government3.9 × 10⁻¹¹0.63%
Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho3.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.60%
Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians3.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.55%
Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho3.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.55%
Government of Haiti - Civilians2.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.45%
G9 - G-Pep2.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.40%
Bonde dos 40 - PCC2.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.39%
Terre Noire - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.38%
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG2.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.37%
5 Segond, Taliban - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.37%
Grand Ravine - Civilians2.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.34%
M18 - MS-132.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.32%
Comando Vermelho - GDE1.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.29%
Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos1.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.29%
GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime1.8 × 10⁻¹¹0.29%
Myanmar (Burma): Kachin1.7 × 10⁻¹¹0.27%
Beni Halba Baggara - Salamat Baggara1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.27%
G-Pep - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.26%
PCC - Sindicato do Crime1.6 × 10⁻¹¹0.25%
Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.25%
India: Kashmir1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.25%
Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.25%
Philippines: Government1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.24%
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻¹¹0.24%
Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos1.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.23%
Ethiopia: Government/Amhara1.4 × 10⁻¹¹0.22%
Pakistan: Balochistan1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.22%
Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.21%
Kuki - Meitei1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.21%
Comando Vermelho - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹¹0.21%
India: Government1.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.20%
JNIM - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹¹0.20%
Mali: Government1.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.19%
Habaniya - Salamat Baggara1.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.18%
EGC - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.18%
Myanmar (Burma): Karen1.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.18%
Turkey: Kurdistan1.1 × 10⁻¹¹0.17%
Pakistan: Islamic State1.0 × 10⁻¹¹0.17%
Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos9.5 × 10⁻¹²0.16%
Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho9.4 × 10⁻¹²0.15%
Niger: Islamic State9.4 × 10⁻¹²0.15%
Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho9.3 × 10⁻¹²0.15%
URDPC - Civilians8.5 × 10⁻¹²0.14%
Myanmar (Burma): Karenni8.5 × 10⁻¹²0.14%
Arab - Gimir8.2 × 10⁻¹²0.13%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State8.0 × 10⁻¹²0.13%
Philippines: Islamic State7.1 × 10⁻¹²0.12%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela6.9 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Comando Vermelho - Holanda6.5 × 10⁻¹²0.11%
Colombia: Government6.2 × 10⁻¹²0.10%
Gran Grif - Civilians6.2 × 10⁻¹²0.10%
400 Mawozo - Civilians6.2 × 10⁻¹²0.10%
FARC-EMC - Civilians5.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Lengola - Mbole5.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
IS - JNIM5.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
CPI-Maoist - Civilians5.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Choneros - Los Lobos5.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Ethiopia: Oromiya5.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Massa5.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Thailand: Patani4.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Nova Okaida - PCC4.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Nigeria: Islamic State4.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Katiara4.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Civilians4.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Arakan4.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
M18 - Civilians4.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Mozambique: Islamic State4.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
DZ Mafia - Yoda4.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Burkina Faso - Civilians4.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of eSwatini (Swaziland) - Civilians4.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians4.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government3.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State3.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Cameroon: Ambazonia3.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
FARC-EMC - ELN3.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
SSC-Khatumo Administration - Republic of Somaliland3.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Civilians3.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Twic Dinka - Ngok Dinka3.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Shia (Pakistan) - Sunni (Pakistan)3.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro3.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Nigeria: Government2.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Mali - Civilians2.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
JAS - Civilians2.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Kokang2.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Central African Republic: Government2.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
PCC - Civilians2.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
MS-13 - Civilians2.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Arab - Masalit2.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
M23 - VDP2.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
ELN - Civilians2.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Kashmir insurgents - Civilians2.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Mali: Government/Azawad2.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Mali: Islamic State2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Mobondo - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Burundi: Government2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Cameroon: Government2.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones2.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Uganda: Islamic State2.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - Civilians2.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Ambazonia insurgents - Civilians2.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Ethiopia - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Costenos - Los Pepes2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos2.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
M23 - Civilians1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
EGC - ELN1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings1.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Forces of Tony Peña - Los Hondureños1.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Niger: Government1.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Brazil - Civilians1.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra1.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Rwanda: Government1.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Hausa - Nuba1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
OLA - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara1.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Choneros - Los Lagartos1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Lobos - Los Tiguerones1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Lagartos - Mafia 181.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
BRAS - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
CPP - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCM1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Fano - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Mexico - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Anuak - Nuer1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Rojos1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - JNIM1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
IS - JAS1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Cameroon: Islamic State1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
AAKG - CPC1.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Hindus (India) - Muslims (India)1.0 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Burundi - Civilians9.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Government9.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of India - Civilians8.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
NUG - Civilians8.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
TTP - Civilians8.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Indonesia: West Papua8.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada8.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
URDPC - Zaire self-defense group7.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
IS - Naparama7.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Djerma (Zherma) - Fulani7.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Zaire self-defense group - Civilians6.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Colombia - Civilians6.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul6.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
VDP - Civilians6.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Kokorat sans ras - Civilians6.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Hawazma - Nuba6.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul , Ron6.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Pakistan - Civilians6.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Syria: Government6.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Tiv5.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Hausa - Funj5.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Sudan - Civilians5.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
India: Western South East Asia5.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Azerbaijan: Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)5.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC5.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Cameroon - Civilians5.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria)5.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Iran: Government5.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians4.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel4.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation4.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
OPM - Civilians3.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Amhara - Oromo3.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Peru: Government3.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
AFC - Civilians3.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Nigeria: Biafra3.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Afghanistan: Islamic State3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Syria: Islamic State3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Chad: Government3.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB3.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Mozambique - Civilians3.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - JNIM3.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Central African Republic: Logone3.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Comités locaux de vigilance - JAS3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Ambulin, Lungupin, Nenei, Sau, Sau Walep, Yandamau, Yopo - Kaekin, Lanzerakin, Lyona, Mupapalu, Murap, Palinau, Sakaikin, Sikin, Wapukin2.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
CPC - Civilians2.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Afghanistan - Pakistan2.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Birom - Fulani2.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Farmers (Chad) - Herders (Chad)2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Sa'ad subclan of Habar Gidir clan (Hawiye) - Leelkase subclan (Darod)2.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
VHP - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Atyap - Fulani2.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians2.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Karimjo - Wurukum2.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Black Axe - Eyie2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
PKK - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Egypt - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
SNA - SDF2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Israel: Southern Lebanon2.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Somalia: Islamic State1.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Philippines: Mindanao1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Philippines - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Forces of Terwase Akwanza - Civilians1.8 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Afghanistan: Government1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Idoma1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Venezuela - Civilians1.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Patani insurgents - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Guraghe - Mareqo1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Fulani - Kuteb1.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Los Costenos - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
FDN - PCC1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Benin: Government1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara)1.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
ARSA - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Misseriya - Ngok Dinka1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
India - Pakistan1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
India: Nagaland1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
NSCN-IM - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
PLFI - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Los Lobos - R71.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - FABB1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Iran - Israel1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
LeJ - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
CATA - Codeta1.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Shan1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Nigeria - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Murle - Nuer1.1 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
FRPI - Civilians1.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Indonesia - Civilians9.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Afghanistan - Civilians9.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Chain Guys - Full Force9.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Central African Republic - Civilians9.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
IS - SDF9.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
GATIA - IS8.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of South Africa - Civilians7.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Deir ez Zor Military Council - SDF7.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba)6.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos6.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FDLR-FOCA - Civilians5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Iran: Islamic State5.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Hausa - Fulani5.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Somalia - Civilians5.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Russia: Islamic State4.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians4.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
IS - MSA4.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Iran - Civilians4.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Egypt: Islamic State3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Fulani - Irigwe3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
South Sudan: Government3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Luba - Batwa3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Amhara - Gumuz3.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Fulani - Igala3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Syria: Government/Rojava Kurdistan3.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Greenlanders - NDV2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Black Axe - Maphite2.8 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
RED-TABARA - Civilians2.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - IS2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Kusasi - Mamprusi2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Farmers (CAR) - Herders (CAR)2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
AAKG - Civilians2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Choa Arab - Kotoko2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Choa Arab - Musgum2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Chechnya2.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Supporters of APC - Supporters of PDP1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of BNP1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Black Axe - SVC1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
IPOB - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Israel - Syria1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Agatu - Fulani1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
IS - Yan Gora1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Deebam - NDV1.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of Uganda - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Twiganeho - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
AFC - VDP1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Tunisia: Government1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami8.5 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Israel: Palestine8.3 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Syrian insurgents - Civilians6.9 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Jukun - Tiv6.2 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Iraq: Government5.8 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
SDF - Civilians5.3 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians4.4 × 10⁻¹⁵<0.1%
IS - HTS7.6 × 10⁻¹⁶<0.1%
Total6.1 × 10⁻⁹= the headline figure, 6.1 × 10⁻⁹

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities2.3 × 10⁻⁶69%
Mining and quarrying7.0 × 10⁻⁷21%
Land transport and transport via pipelines7.0 × 10⁻⁸2.0%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products6.0 × 10⁻⁸1.8%
Water transport3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.98%
Forestry and logging3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.98%
Manufacture of basic metals3.3 × 10⁻⁸0.96%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation2.8 × 10⁻⁸0.82%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.8 × 10⁻⁸0.53%
Air transport1.3 × 10⁻⁸0.39%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles7.8 × 10⁻⁹0.23%
Postal and courier activities5.1 × 10⁻⁹0.15%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.8 × 10⁻⁹0.14%
Water collection, treatment and supply4.3 × 10⁻⁹0.13%
Construction3.6 × 10⁻⁹0.11%
Fishing and aquaculture3.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment3.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products2.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Rental and leasing activities1.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Employment activities1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Manufacture of paper and paper products1.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Accommodation and food service activities5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.5.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Human health activities3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Advertising and market research3.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Real estate activities2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of electrical equipment2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Other personal service activities1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Telecommunications1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities8.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Education6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Publishing activities4.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities4.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use2.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation2.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total3.4 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed2.6 × 10⁻⁶77%
Mexico3.9 × 10⁻⁷12%
Brazil1.5 × 10⁻⁷4.3%
United States6.8 × 10⁻⁸2.0%
Russian Federation2.9 × 10⁻⁸0.85%
Turkiye2.6 × 10⁻⁸0.77%
France1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.47%
India1.2 × 10⁻⁸0.35%
Canada1.2 × 10⁻⁸0.34%
Korea, Rep.1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.31%
Germany9.7 × 10⁻⁹0.28%
Spain9.3 × 10⁻⁹0.27%
Italy9.0 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Japan8.9 × 10⁻⁹0.26%
Argentina8.6 × 10⁻⁹0.25%
Austria5.5 × 10⁻⁹0.16%
Australia3.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Poland3.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Romania2.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Indonesia2.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Portugal2.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Ireland2.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Denmark1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Bulgaria1.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Norway1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Hungary1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Belgium9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Switzerland9.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Lithuania8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Czechia8.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Finland7.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Greece7.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Netherlands6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Sweden6.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Croatia5.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Latvia3.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Cyprus3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovak Republic3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luxembourg2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Slovenia1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
South Africa1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Estonia8.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Saudi Arabia6.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
United Kingdom4.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Malta4.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
China3.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Serbia2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total3.4 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 3.4 × 10⁻⁶

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/refined-sugar/

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