The full breakdown

How the figure for Refined sugar is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of refined white sugar. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 3.2 × 10⁻⁷ per item(1.3–7.9 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 9.2 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.62–1.4 × 10⁻⁴)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
Material	Per item	Deaths per kg	Part of the figure	Share
Sugar	0.0072 t	4.5 × 10⁻⁸	3.2 × 10⁻⁷	100%
Total			3.2 × 10⁻⁷	= the headline figure, 3.2 × 10⁻⁷

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Turkiye	6.7 × 10⁻⁸	21%
Germany	6.4 × 10⁻⁸	20%
France	5.5 × 10⁻⁸	17%
Colombia	4.5 × 10⁻⁸	14%
Thailand	1.3 × 10⁻⁸	4.1%
United States	1.1 × 10⁻⁸	3.4%
Spain	9.4 × 10⁻⁹	2.9%
Ukraine	8.5 × 10⁻⁹	2.6%
Argentina	7.8 × 10⁻⁹	2.4%
Japan	5.8 × 10⁻⁹	1.8%
Netherlands	5.2 × 10⁻⁹	1.6%
Belgium	5.1 × 10⁻⁹	1.6%
Austria	3.3 × 10⁻⁹	1.0%
Switzerland	3.1 × 10⁻⁹	0.97%
Poland	2.7 × 10⁻⁹	0.82%
Mexico	2.4 × 10⁻⁹	0.73%
Italy	1.8 × 10⁻⁹	0.57%
Sudan	1.6 × 10⁻⁹	0.51%
Australia	1.6 × 10⁻⁹	0.51%
Czechia	1.4 × 10⁻⁹	0.45%
Denmark	1.3 × 10⁻⁹	0.41%
Brazil	1.1 × 10⁻⁹	0.33%
Sweden	6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.19%
Myanmar	5.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.16%
Haiti	4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.14%
Slovak Republic	4.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.13%
Pakistan	4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.13%
Hungary	4.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.13%
Lithuania	2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Mauritius	2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Croatia	2.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Finland	2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Burkina Faso	1.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Canada	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Somalia, Fed. Rep.	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep.	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
India	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Mali	8.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Ethiopia	7.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Belarus	7.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Philippines	7.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Niger	5.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Kenya	5.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Honduras	5.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Ecuador	5.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nigeria	4.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Moldova	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Cameroon	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Panama	3.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Sri Lanka	3.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Guatemala	3.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Uganda	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Mozambique	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Central African Republic	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Eswatini	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Burundi	9.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Romania	9.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Slovenia	8.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Russian Federation	8.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Costa Rica	5.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Syrian Arab Republic	4.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Indonesia	4.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Afghanistan	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Chad	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Iran, Islamic Rep.	1.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Azerbaijan	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Luxembourg	1.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Peru	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Papua New Guinea	8.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Egypt, Arab Rep.	7.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Benin	7.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Lebanon	6.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Venezuela, RB	6.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
South Africa	5.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Armenia	4.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Morocco	4.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Bolivia	3.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Bangladesh	3.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Greece	8.8 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Turkmenistan	6.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Ghana	6.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Iraq	6.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Tunisia	3.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
China	2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Uzbekistan	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Total	3.2 × 10⁻⁷	= the headline figure, 3.2 × 10⁻⁷

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harm	Part of the figure	Share
Work	3.1 × 10⁻⁷	95%
Conflict and political violence	1.6 × 10⁻⁸	5.1%
Total	3.2 × 10⁻⁷	= the headline figure, 3.2 × 10⁻⁷

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
War	Part of the figure	Share
Not placed	3.1 × 10⁻⁷	95%
Russia - Ukraine	8.4 × 10⁻⁹	2.6%
Sudan: Government	1.1 × 10⁻⁹	0.33%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel	9.3 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.29%
RSF - Civilians	4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.14%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel	4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.12%
Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel	3.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	0.11%
Pakistan: Government	3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - PCC	3.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Government	2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation	2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Somalia: Government	1.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
IS - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Burkina Faso: Government	1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho	1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho	1.0 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Government of Haiti - Civilians	8.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
G9 - G-Pep	7.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCC	7.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Terre Noire - Civilians	7.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG	6.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
5 Segond, Taliban - Civilians	6.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Grand Ravine - Civilians	6.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
M18 - MS-13	5.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - GDE	5.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos	5.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime	5.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Kachin	5.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Beni Halba Baggara - Salamat Baggara	4.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
G-Pep - Civilians	4.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
PCC - Sindicato do Crime	4.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá	4.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
India: Kashmir	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast	4.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Philippines: Government	4.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians	4.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos	4.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Ethiopia: Government/Amhara	4.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Pakistan: Balochistan	4.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Kuki - Meitei	3.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Civilians	3.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
India: Government	3.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
JNIM - Civilians	3.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Mali: Government	3.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Habaniya - Salamat Baggara	3.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
EGC - Civilians	3.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Karen	3.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Turkey: Kurdistan	3.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Pakistan: Islamic State	3.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos	2.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho	2.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Niger: Islamic State	2.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho	2.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
URDPC - Civilians	2.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Karenni	2.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Arab - Gimir	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Burkina Faso: Islamic State	2.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Philippines: Islamic State	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela	2.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Holanda	2.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Colombia: Government	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Gran Grif - Civilians	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
400 Mawozo - Civilians	1.9 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FARC-EMC - Civilians	1.8 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Lengola - Mbole	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
IS - JNIM	1.7 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
CPI-Maoist - Civilians	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Los Choneros - Los Lobos	1.6 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Ethiopia: Oromiya	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Massa	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Thailand: Patani	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nova Okaida - PCC	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nigeria: Islamic State	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Katiara	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Civilians	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Arakan	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
M18 - Civilians	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Mozambique: Islamic State	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
DZ Mafia - Yoda	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Government of Burkina Faso - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Government of eSwatini (Swaziland) - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Cameroon: Ambazonia	1.2 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
FARC-EMC - ELN	1.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
SSC-Khatumo Administration - Republic of Somaliland	1.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Civilians	1.1 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Twic Dinka - Ngok Dinka	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Shia (Pakistan) - Sunni (Pakistan)	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro	1.0 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Nigeria: Government	8.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Mali - Civilians	8.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
JAS - Civilians	8.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Kokang	8.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Central African Republic: Government	7.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
PCC - Civilians	7.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
MS-13 - Civilians	7.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians	7.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Arab - Masalit	7.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
M23 - VDP	7.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
ELN - Civilians	7.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Kashmir insurgents - Civilians	7.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Mali: Government/Azawad	7.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Mali: Islamic State	7.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Mobondo - Civilians	7.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Burundi: Government	6.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco	6.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Cameroon: Government	6.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones	6.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Uganda: Islamic State	6.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - Civilians	6.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Ambazonia insurgents - Civilians	6.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Ethiopia - Civilians	6.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Costenos - Los Pepes	6.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos	6.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC	5.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
M23 - Civilians	5.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
EGC - ELN	5.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings	5.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Forces of Tony Peña - Los Hondureños	5.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Niger: Government	5.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians	5.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Brazil - Civilians	5.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra	5.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Rwanda: Government	5.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos	4.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Hausa - Nuba	4.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
OLA - Civilians	4.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara	4.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians	4.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Choneros - Los Lagartos	4.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Lobos - Los Tiguerones	4.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Lagartos - Mafia 18	4.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
BRAS - Civilians	4.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
CPP - Civilians	4.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCM	4.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Fano - Civilians	4.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Mexico - Civilians	4.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Anuak - Nuer	4.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Rojos	3.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - JNIM	3.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
IS - JAS	3.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction	3.4 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones	3.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Cameroon: Islamic State	3.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
AAKG - CPC	3.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Hindus (India) - Muslims (India)	3.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Burundi - Civilians	3.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Government	2.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of India - Civilians	2.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
NUG - Civilians	2.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
TTP - Civilians	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Indonesia: West Papua	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada	2.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
URDPC - Zaire self-defense group	2.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
IS - Naparama	2.3 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Djerma (Zherma) - Fulani	2.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Zaire self-defense group - Civilians	2.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Colombia - Civilians	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
VDP - Civilians	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Kokorat sans ras - Civilians	2.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Hawazma - Nuba	1.9 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Fulani - Mwaghavul , Ron	1.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Pakistan - Civilians	1.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Syria: Government	1.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Fulani - Tiv	1.8 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Hausa - Funj	1.7 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Sudan - Civilians	1.6 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
India: Western South East Asia	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Azerbaijan: Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Cameroon - Civilians	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria)	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Iran: Government	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians	1.5 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
OPM - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Amhara - Oromo	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Peru: Government	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
AFC - Civilians	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Nigeria: Biafra	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Afghanistan: Islamic State	1.1 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Syria: Islamic State	1.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Chad: Government	1.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB	1.0 × 10⁻¹²	<0.1%
Government of Mozambique - Civilians	9.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - JNIM	9.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Central African Republic: Logone	9.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Comités locaux de vigilance - JAS	9.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians	8.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Ambulin, Lungupin, Nenei, Sau, Sau Walep, Yandamau, Yopo - Kaekin, Lanzerakin, Lyona, Mupapalu, Murap, Palinau, Sakaikin, Sikin, Wapukin	8.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
CPC - Civilians	8.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Afghanistan - Pakistan	8.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Birom - Fulani	8.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Farmers (Chad) - Herders (Chad)	7.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Sa'ad subclan of Habar Gidir clan (Hawiye) - Leelkase subclan (Darod)	7.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
VHP - Civilians	7.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Atyap - Fulani	6.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians	6.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Karimjo - Wurukum	6.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Black Axe - Eyie	6.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
PKK - Civilians	6.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Egypt - Civilians	5.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
SNA - SDF	5.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Israel: Southern Lebanon	5.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Somalia: Islamic State	5.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - Civilians	5.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Philippines: Mindanao	5.4 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Philippines - Civilians	5.4 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Forces of Terwase Akwanza - Civilians	5.4 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Afghanistan: Government	5.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Fulani - Idoma	5.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Venezuela - Civilians	5.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Patani insurgents - Civilians	4.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Guraghe - Mareqo	4.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Fulani - Kuteb	4.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Los Costenos - Civilians	4.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho	4.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
FDN - PCC	4.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Benin: Government	4.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara)	4.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
ARSA - Civilians	4.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Misseriya - Ngok Dinka	3.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
India - Pakistan	3.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
India: Nagaland	3.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
NSCN-IM - Civilians	3.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
PLFI - Civilians	3.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Los Lobos - R7	3.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - FABB	3.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Iran - Israel	3.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
LeJ - Civilians	3.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
CATA - Codeta	3.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Shan	3.4 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - Civilians	3.4 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Nigeria - Civilians	3.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Murle - Nuer	3.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
FRPI - Civilians	3.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Indonesia - Civilians	2.9 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Afghanistan - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Chain Guys - Full Force	2.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Central African Republic - Civilians	2.8 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
IS - SDF	2.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
GATIA - IS	2.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of South Africa - Civilians	2.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Deir ez Zor Military Council - SDF	2.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba)	2.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos	2.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
FDLR-FOCA - Civilians	1.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI	1.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Iran: Islamic State	1.7 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Hausa - Fulani	1.6 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Somalia - Civilians	1.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Russia: Islamic State	1.5 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
IS - MSA	1.3 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Government of Iran - Civilians	1.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Egypt: Islamic State	1.2 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Fulani - Irigwe	1.1 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
South Sudan: Government	1.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Luba - Batwa	1.0 × 10⁻¹³	<0.1%
Amhara - Gumuz	9.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Fulani - Igala	9.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Syria: Government/Rojava Kurdistan	9.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Greenlanders - NDV	8.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Black Axe - Maphite	8.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
RED-TABARA - Civilians	7.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Al-Shabaab - IS	7.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Kusasi - Mamprusi	6.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Farmers (CAR) - Herders (CAR)	6.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
AAKG - Civilians	6.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Choa Arab - Kotoko	6.0 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Choa Arab - Musgum	6.0 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Chechnya	5.9 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Supporters of APC - Supporters of PDP	5.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of BNP	5.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Black Axe - SVC	4.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
IPOB - Civilians	4.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Israel - Syria	3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Agatu - Fulani	3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
IS - Yan Gora	3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Deebam - NDV	3.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Government of Uganda - Civilians	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Twiganeho - Civilians	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
AFC - VDP	3.4 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Tunisia: Government	3.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Supporters of Awami League - Supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami	2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Israel: Palestine	2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Syrian insurgents - Civilians	2.1 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Jukun - Tiv	1.9 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Iraq: Government	1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
SDF - Civilians	1.6 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians	1.3 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
IS - HTS	2.3 × 10⁻¹⁵	<0.1%
Total	3.2 × 10⁻⁷	= the headline figure, 3.2 × 10⁻⁷

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
Industry	Part of the figure	Share
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products	3.4 × 10⁻⁵	37%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities	2.4 × 10⁻⁵	26%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	5.5 × 10⁻⁶	5.9%
Land transport and transport via pipelines	3.5 × 10⁻⁶	3.8%
Mining and quarrying	3.1 × 10⁻⁶	3.4%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation	2.1 × 10⁻⁶	2.3%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	2.0 × 10⁻⁶	2.2%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities	1.9 × 10⁻⁶	2.0%
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products	1.2 × 10⁻⁶	1.3%
Construction	1.1 × 10⁻⁶	1.2%
Rental and leasing activities	1.0 × 10⁻⁶	1.1%
Employment activities	1.0 × 10⁻⁶	1.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products	8.2 × 10⁻⁷	0.90%
Manufacture of paper and paper products	7.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.76%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products	6.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.71%
Accommodation and food service activities	6.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.68%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	5.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.64%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities	5.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.63%
Manufacture of basic metals	5.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.61%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	5.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.56%
Water transport	5.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.55%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	4.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.49%
Fishing and aquaculture	3.9 × 10⁻⁷	0.43%
Forestry and logging	3.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.42%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.	3.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.36%
Postal and courier activities	3.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.36%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products	3.2 × 10⁻⁷	0.35%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	2.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.30%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	2.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.30%
Air transport	2.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.27%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment	2.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.25%
Human health activities	2.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.21%
Manufacture of electrical equipment	2.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.21%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	1.9 × 10⁻⁷	0.20%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products	1.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.19%
Water collection, treatment and supply	1.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.19%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials	1.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.18%
Advertising and market research	1.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.18%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities	1.6 × 10⁻⁷	0.18%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	1.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.16%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	1.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.15%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	1.2 × 10⁻⁷	0.13%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media	1.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.12%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities	1.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.11%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding	9.3 × 10⁻⁸	0.10%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities	9.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Real estate activities	8.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Activities of membership organisations	8.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	8.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Manufacture of other transport equipment	7.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods	7.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing	6.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities	5.5 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Education	5.4 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Telecommunications	4.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation	4.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Other personal service activities	4.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security	2.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities	2.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Publishing activities	2.2 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities	2.2 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Scientific research and development	1.2 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use	1.8 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
Total	9.2 × 10⁻⁵	= the headline figure, 9.2 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
Country	Part of the figure	Share
Not placed	1.8 × 10⁻⁵	20%
Germany	1.1 × 10⁻⁵	11%
Turkiye	1.0 × 10⁻⁵	11%
Spain	9.7 × 10⁻⁶	11%
Argentina	7.7 × 10⁻⁶	8.4%
United States	7.4 × 10⁻⁶	8.1%
France	6.9 × 10⁻⁶	7.6%
Italy	4.4 × 10⁻⁶	4.8%
Canada	2.8 × 10⁻⁶	3.0%
Portugal	1.9 × 10⁻⁶	2.0%
Japan	1.3 × 10⁻⁶	1.5%
Australia	1.3 × 10⁻⁶	1.4%
Poland	1.3 × 10⁻⁶	1.4%
Mexico	1.2 × 10⁻⁶	1.3%
Netherlands	1.1 × 10⁻⁶	1.2%
Switzerland	1.0 × 10⁻⁶	1.1%
Austria	7.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.77%
Belgium	7.0 × 10⁻⁷	0.76%
Czechia	5.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.59%
Denmark	5.1 × 10⁻⁷	0.56%
Brazil	4.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.48%
Hungary	3.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.41%
Finland	3.5 × 10⁻⁷	0.38%
Sweden	2.7 × 10⁻⁷	0.30%
Ireland	2.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.25%
Norway	1.8 × 10⁻⁷	0.20%
Slovenia	1.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.15%
Luxembourg	1.4 × 10⁻⁷	0.15%
Croatia	1.3 × 10⁻⁷	0.14%
Lithuania	9.2 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Slovak Republic	8.2 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Estonia	7.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Greece	7.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Romania	7.1 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Latvia	4.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Bulgaria	3.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
India	3.6 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Russian Federation	2.4 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Cyprus	1.9 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Malta	1.0 × 10⁻⁸	<0.1%
Indonesia	7.3 × 10⁻⁹	<0.1%
South Africa	3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Saudi Arabia	2.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
United Kingdom	1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
China	1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰	<0.1%
Korea, Rep.	2.5 × 10⁻¹¹	<0.1%
Serbia	7.5 × 10⁻¹⁴	<0.1%
Total	9.2 × 10⁻⁵	= the headline figure, 9.2 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Each table is a separate way of dividing the figure. “Cobalt accounts for 40%” and “one country accounts for 60%” are two views of one figure, not a path through it: the calculation stores the figure divided each way on its own, not every combination of them.
A range belongs to the whole figure. A step’s number is only its middle estimate.
Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.

Sources behind this figure

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Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_02?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-non_fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_01?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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Eurostat, FIGARO inter-country input-output tables — ii3-20260718, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/naio_10_fcp_ii3?format=SDMX-CSV&compressed=true. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — emp-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB,1.0/.A..SEX_T.. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — emp-20261007, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB,1.0/.A..SEX_T.. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
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HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/refined-sugar/

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